-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/stephennelson/Desktop/Aug24ISQReplication/ISQreplication.sm
> cl
  log type:  smcl
 opened on:  22 Aug 2024, 10:43:55

. do "/Users/stephennelson/Desktop/Aug24ISQReplication/ISQ_Do_NelsonDinkel2024.
> do"

. *****************************************************************************
> ****************************
. *************    Replication code for IMF Lending Programs and Repression in 
> Autocracies  ***************
. *****************************************************************************
> ****************************
. 
. ***Analyses run in Stata 14.2***
. 
. *** Note that the following Stata packages need to be installed before replic
> ating tables and figures reported in "IMF Lending Programs and Repression in 
> Autocracies": ivreg2, reghdfe, ivreghdfe, coefplot, cmp, ghk2, estout ***
. 
. clear

. * Install ftools 
. cap ado uninstall ftools

. net install ftools, replace from("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/sergiocor
> reia/ftools/master/src/")
checking ftools consistency and verifying not already installed...
all files already exist and are up to date.

. 
. * Install reghdfe
. cap ado uninstall reghdfe

. net install reghdfe, replace from("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/sergioco
> rreia/reghdfe/master/src/")
checking reghdfe consistency and verifying not already installed...
all files already exist and are up to date.

. 
. * Install ivreg2
. cap ado uninstall ivreg2

. ssc install ivreg2, replace
checking ivreg2 consistency and verifying not already installed...
all files already exist and are up to date.

. 
. * Install ivreghdfe
. cap ado uninstall ivreghdfe

. net install ivreghdfe, replace from(https://raw.githubusercontent.com/sergioc
> orreia/ivreghdfe/master/src/)
checking ivreghdfe consistency and verifying not already installed...
all files already exist and are up to date.

. 
. *Install estout*
. ssc install estout, replace
checking estout consistency and verifying not already installed...
all files already exist and are up to date.

. 
. *Install coefplot*
. ssc install coefplot, replace
checking coefplot consistency and verifying not already installed...
all files already exist and are up to date.

. 
. *Install cmp*
. ssc install cmp, replace
checking cmp consistency and verifying not already installed...
all files already exist and are up to date.

. 
. *Install ghk2*
. ssc install ghk2, replace
checking ghk2 consistency and verifying not already installed...
all files already exist and are up to date.

. 
. 
. *****************************************************************************
> **************************************
. ******** REPRODUCE FIGURE 1 (SHARES OF DEMOCRATIC AND NON-DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIE
> S INVOLVED IN IMF PROGRAMS) **********
. *****************************************************************************
> **************************************
. 
. clear

. cd "/Users/stephennelson/Desktop/Aug24ISQReplication"
/Users/stephennelson/Desktop/Aug24ISQReplication

. use "figure1data_ISQ.dta"

. 
. *create yearly IMF program participation average for democracies*
. egen imf_avg_democ = mean(imfprogram_uu) if e_chga_demo_updated==1, by(year)
(5915 missing values generated)

. 
. *create IMF program participation average for non-democracies*
. egen imf_avg_autoc = mean(imfprogram_uu) if e_chga_demo_updated==0, by(year)
(5299 missing values generated)

. 
. *Figure 1 in main paper*
. twoway (line imf_avg_democ imf_avg_autoc year if year>=1972 & year<=2014, sor
> t msymbol(d t) connect (l l) lwidth (medthin thin) ytitle("Average under IMF 
> Program", axis(1)) xlab(1973(5)2014) xtitle("") legend(cols(1) order(1 2) lab
> (1 "Democratic Countries") lab(2 "Non-Democratic Countries") stack) scheme(s2
> mono) graphregion(fcolor(white) ilcolor(white) lcolor(white)))

. 
. clear 

. 
. *****************************************************************************
> ************************************************************
. ******** STATISTICAL ANALYSES OF PHYS. INTEGRITY RIGHTS-IMF PROGRAM PARTICIPA
> TION LINK (ONLY DEVELOPING DEMOCRATIC REGIMES) *************
. *****************************************************************************
> ************************************************************
. 
. cd "/Users/stephennelson/Desktop/Aug24ISQReplication"
/Users/stephennelson/Desktop/Aug24ISQReplication

. use "democracies_IMFprograms_ISQ.dta"

. 
. set matsize 800

. tsset ccode year, yearly
       panel variable:  ccode (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1970 to 2015, but with gaps
                delta:  1 year

. 
. ***** Figure 3 (in main paper) / Table A7 (in supplementary appendix) *****
. * Table A7 column 1 *
. ivreg2 theta_mean l1.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liq
> uidity_1) e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.year i.ccode if 
> year>1974 & year<2015 & advanced==0, robust   
Warning: time variable year has 15 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     1551
                                                      F(115,  1435) =  1752.93
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =   2604.68055                Centered R2   =   0.9858
Total (uncentered) SS   =  2606.259839                Uncentered R2 =   0.9858
Residual SS             =  36.99400608                Root MSE      =    .1544

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |   .1865583   .1029984     1.81   0.070    -.0153147    .3884
> 314
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8938527    .011791    75.81   0.000     .8707427    .9169
> 626
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |  -.2991677    .131962    -2.27   0.023    -.5578085    -.040
> 527
     e_migdppcln |   .0697867   .0516709     1.35   0.177    -.0314864    .1710
> 597
     v2xcl_acjst |   .3152696   .0747557     4.22   0.000     .1687511     .461
> 788
v2exl_legitideol |   .0618199    .017353     3.56   0.000     .0278086    .0958
> 312
         actotal |  -.0261816   .0052676    -4.97   0.000    -.0365059   -.0158
> 573
                 |
            year |
           1976  |    .029327   .0678511     0.43   0.666    -.1036586    .1623
> 126
           1977  |   .0291541   .0672435     0.43   0.665    -.1026407     .160
> 949
           1978  |   .0027863   .0632749     0.04   0.965    -.1212303    .1268
> 029
           1979  |   .0010697   .0610521     0.02   0.986    -.1185903    .1207
> 297
           1980  |   .0160282   .0689848     0.23   0.816    -.1191795     .151
> 236
           1981  |   .0023093   .0616713     0.04   0.970    -.1185643    .1231
> 829
           1982  |  -.0103598   .0636032    -0.16   0.871    -.1350198    .1143
> 002
           1983  |  -.0216448   .0655459    -0.33   0.741    -.1501123    .1068
> 228
           1984  |  -.0193247   .0558231    -0.35   0.729    -.1287361    .0900
> 866
           1985  |   .0058883   .0548003     0.11   0.914    -.1015184     .113
> 295
           1986  |  -.0580005   .0525544    -1.10   0.270    -.1610053    .0450
> 043
           1987  |  -.0350325   .0489447    -0.72   0.474    -.1309623    .0608
> 973
           1988  |   -.071292   .0498955    -1.43   0.153    -.1690853    .0265
> 013
           1989  |  -.1224805   .0593021    -2.07   0.039    -.2387106   -.0062
> 505
           1990  |  -.0907935   .0580556    -1.56   0.118    -.2045805    .0229
> 935
           1991  |  -.0368251   .0528859    -0.70   0.486    -.1404794    .0668
> 293
           1992  |  -.0385982   .0592788    -0.65   0.515    -.1547826    .0775
> 862
           1993  |  -.0150268   .0538752    -0.28   0.780    -.1206203    .0905
> 667
           1994  |  -.0265424   .0504353    -0.53   0.599    -.1253938     .072
> 309
           1995  |  -.0315384   .0499374    -0.63   0.528    -.1294139    .0663
> 371
           1996  |  -.0223894   .0519272    -0.43   0.666    -.1241649    .0793
> 861
           1997  |  -.0063139   .0477023    -0.13   0.895    -.0998087     .087
> 181
           1998  |  -.0379787   .0473227    -0.80   0.422    -.1307294     .054
> 772
           1999  |  -.0396569   .0472049    -0.84   0.401    -.1321767    .0528
> 629
           2000  |   -.047118   .0483019    -0.98   0.329    -.1417879     .047
> 552
           2001  |  -.0420418   .0518584    -0.81   0.418    -.1436824    .0595
> 988
           2002  |   .0213961   .0529923     0.40   0.686    -.0824669    .1252
> 592
           2003  |  -.0015984   .0512941    -0.03   0.975    -.1021331    .0989
> 362
           2004  |  -.0279889   .0513847    -0.54   0.586    -.1287012    .0727
> 233
           2005  |  -.0330622   .0509667    -0.65   0.517    -.1329551    .0668
> 307
           2006  |  -.0380228   .0524391    -0.73   0.468    -.1408015    .0647
> 559
           2007  |  -.0171874   .0499629    -0.34   0.731    -.1151129    .0807
> 382
           2008  |  -.0425308   .0493652    -0.86   0.389    -.1392849    .0542
> 233
           2009  |  -.0399351   .0552463    -0.72   0.470     -.148216    .0683
> 457
           2010  |  -.0348832    .055846    -0.62   0.532    -.1443393    .0745
> 728
           2011  |  -.0110928   .0541673    -0.20   0.838    -.1172587    .0950
> 731
           2012  |  -.0311756   .0665112    -0.47   0.639    -.1615352     .099
> 184
           2013  |   .0114229   .0528895     0.22   0.829    -.0922387    .1150
> 845
           2014  |   .0087718   .0519635     0.17   0.866    -.0930747    .1106
> 184
                 |
           ccode |
             51  |  -.0157343   .0413817    -0.38   0.704    -.0968409    .0653
> 723
             70  |   .0969044   .0546466     1.77   0.076    -.0102009    .2040
> 098
             90  |   .2734142   .0700584     3.90   0.000     .1361021    .4107
> 262
             91  |   .2104797   .0661535     3.18   0.001     .0808212    .3401
> 382
             92  |   .2524189   .0564142     4.47   0.000     .1418492    .3629
> 886
             93  |    .028739   .0660828     0.43   0.664    -.1007809    .1582
> 589
             94  |   .1766567   .0455086     3.88   0.000     .0874615    .2658
> 519
             95  |   .4832605   .0981647     4.92   0.000     .2908611    .6756
> 598
            100  |   .0780221   .0521246     1.50   0.134    -.0241402    .1801
> 843
            101  |  -.0881096   .0408922    -2.15   0.031    -.1682568   -.0079
> 624
            130  |   .2045566    .062143     3.29   0.001     .0827586    .3263
> 547
            135  |   .1241233    .073332     1.69   0.091    -.0196048    .2678
> 514
            140  |  -.0512843   .0419704    -1.22   0.222    -.1335447    .0309
> 761
            145  |   .2673479   .0710882     3.76   0.000     .1280176    .4066
> 781
            150  |    .107285   .0443374     2.42   0.016     .0203853    .1941
> 847
            155  |    .200325   .0579333     3.46   0.001     .0867778    .3138
> 722
            160  |   .0461449   .0478941     0.96   0.335    -.0477258    .1400
> 156
            165  |   .3608203   .0738218     4.89   0.000     .2161322    .5055
> 083
            290  |   .1891114   .0451783     4.19   0.000     .1005637    .2776
> 592
            310  |   .0903758   .0436899     2.07   0.039     .0047452    .1760
> 064
            316  |    .282956   .0506605     5.59   0.000     .1836633    .3822
> 487
            317  |   .1892974   .0444914     4.25   0.000     .1020959     .276
> 499
            339  |   .1146123   .0530444     2.16   0.031     .0106472    .2185
> 773
            343  |   .0019829   .0670791     0.03   0.976    -.1294898    .1334
> 556
            344  |   .2925107   .0643377     4.55   0.000     .1664111    .4186
> 104
            346  |  -.1136388   .0911226    -1.25   0.212    -.2922358    .0649
> 582
            349  |   .2263718   .0550859     4.11   0.000     .1184055    .3343
> 381
            355  |   .2590734   .0718602     3.61   0.000       .11823    .3999
> 167
            359  |   .2288452   .0825521     2.77   0.006     .0670462    .3906
> 443
            360  |    .102924   .0387286     2.66   0.008     .0270174    .1788
> 306
            366  |   .3242006   .0529711     6.12   0.000     .2203792     .428
> 022
            367  |    .207485   .0528574     3.93   0.000     .1038864    .3110
> 835
            368  |   .3347043   .0647459     5.17   0.000     .2078047     .461
> 604
            369  |   .0006563   .0416411     0.02   0.987    -.0809587    .0822
> 714
            371  |    .096482   .0482992     2.00   0.046     .0018173    .1911
> 467
            402  |    .268656   .0674326     3.98   0.000     .1364906    .4008
> 215
            404  |   .3782348   .1338024     2.83   0.005      .115987    .6404
> 827
            432  |   .2382259   .1107431     2.15   0.031     .0211734    .4552
> 783
            433  |   .1464143   .0922788     1.59   0.113    -.0344488    .3272
> 775
            434  |   .0899775   .0638804     1.41   0.159    -.0352257    .2151
> 808
            436  |   .0837537   .1160554     0.72   0.470    -.1437108    .3112
> 182
            450  |   .2509865   .1087323     2.31   0.021     .0378752    .4640
> 978
            451  |   .5102502   .1578391     3.23   0.001     .2008913    .8196
> 092
            452  |   .1275368   .0776034     1.64   0.100    -.0245631    .2796
> 367
            475  |  -.0414615   .0610679    -0.68   0.497    -.1611525    .0782
> 294
            482  |   .0479684   .1136275     0.42   0.673    -.1747374    .2706
> 742
            484  |  -.1883479   .2307241    -0.82   0.414    -.6405589     .263
> 863
            500  |  -.2239142   .0932625    -2.40   0.016    -.4067053   -.0411
> 231
            501  |   .2056482     .11627     1.77   0.077    -.0222368    .4335
> 332
            516  |     .08292   .0979684     0.85   0.397    -.1090946    .2749
> 346
            553  |   .2733227   .1251913     2.18   0.029     .0279522    .5186
> 931
            580  |   .3826815   .1211885     3.16   0.002     .1451565    .6202
> 065
            581  |   .2398563   .0971221     2.47   0.014     .0495006     .430
> 212
            590  |  -.0030751   .0498232    -0.06   0.951    -.1007268    .0945
> 767
            625  |   .0682606   .1348605     0.51   0.613    -.1960611    .3325
> 823
            640  |  -.0290655    .044333    -0.66   0.512    -.1159566    .0578
> 256
            666  |  -.2630226   .0813656    -3.23   0.001    -.4224962    -.103
> 549
            703  |   .2834858   .0944797     3.00   0.003      .098309    .4686
> 626
            712  |    .242641   .1025901     2.37   0.018     .0415682    .4437
> 139
            713  |   .1569184   .0839246     1.87   0.062    -.0075708    .3214
> 077
            732  |   .1808788   .0543098     3.33   0.001     .0744335     .287
> 324
            750  |   .0718478   .0858652     0.84   0.403    -.0964449    .2401
> 406
            770  |   .1242821   .0755718     1.64   0.100     -.023836    .2724
> 001
            771  |   .0508228    .095603     0.53   0.595    -.1365557    .2382
> 012
            780  |   .1366482   .0754764     1.81   0.070    -.0112829    .2845
> 792
            790  |   .1210533    .122708     0.99   0.324      -.11945    .3615
> 566
            800  |  -.0220672   .0534708    -0.41   0.680     -.126868    .0827
> 335
            840  |   .2363813   .1073637     2.20   0.028     .0259523    .4468
> 103
            850  |   .0768338   .0681421     1.13   0.260    -.0567223    .2103
> 899
                 |
           _cons |  -.7889326   .4534986    -1.74   0.082    -1.677774    .0999
> 083
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             21.553
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               16.280
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         20.412
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hansen J statistic (overidentification test of all instruments):         0.000
                                                 (equation exactly identified)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal 1976.year 1977.year 1978.year
                      1979.year 1980.year 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year
                      1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year
                      1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year
                      1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year
                      1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year
                      2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year
                      2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year
                      2014.year 51.ccode 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode
                      93.ccode 94.ccode 95.ccode 100.ccode 101.ccode 130.ccode
                      135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccode 155.ccode
                      160.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode 310.ccode 316.ccode
                      317.ccode 339.ccode 343.ccode 344.ccode 346.ccode
                      349.ccode 355.ccode 359.ccode 360.ccode 366.ccode
                      367.ccode 368.ccode 369.ccode 371.ccode 402.ccode
                      404.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode 436.ccode
                      450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 475.ccode 482.ccode
                      484.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode 516.ccode 553.ccode
                      580.ccode 581.ccode 590.ccode 625.ccode 640.ccode
                      666.ccode 703.ccode 712.ccode 713.ccode 732.ccode
                      750.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode 780.ccode 790.ccode
                      800.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store fariss

. qui tab ccode if e(sample)

. di r(r)
70

. * Table A7 column 2 *
. ivreg2 v2x_clphy l1.v2x_clphy imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liqui
> dity_1) e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.year i.ccode if ye
> ar>1974 & year<2015 & advanced==0, robust 
Warning: time variable year has 15 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     1563
                                                      F(116,  1446) =   964.89
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  72.88627281                Centered R2   =   0.9555
Total (uncentered) SS   =  913.8407219                Uncentered R2 =   0.9964
Residual SS             =  3.247082762                Root MSE      =   .04558

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
       v2x_clphy |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |  -.0269241   .0252145    -1.07   0.286    -.0763437    .0224
> 954
                 |
       v2x_clphy |
             L1. |   .6868319   .0459109    14.96   0.000     .5968483    .7768
> 156
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0471711   .0296476     1.59   0.112    -.0109371    .1052
> 794
     e_migdppcln |  -.0006635   .0148915    -0.04   0.964    -.0298503    .0285
> 233
     v2xcl_acjst |   .1692212   .0349139     4.85   0.000     .1007913    .2376
> 512
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0026398   .0046369    -0.57   0.569    -.0117279    .0064
> 484
         actotal |  -.0125372   .0025377    -4.94   0.000    -.0175109   -.0075
> 634
                 |
            year |
           1976  |    .006317   .0219178     0.29   0.773    -.0366412    .0492
> 751
           1977  |   .0291593   .0247776     1.18   0.239     -.019404    .0777
> 225
           1978  |   .0057702   .0299725     0.19   0.847    -.0529748    .0645
> 151
           1979  |   .0894597   .0564111     1.59   0.113     -.021104    .2000
> 234
           1980  |   .0581266     .02625     2.21   0.027     .0066775    .1095
> 758
           1981  |    .041102   .0208158     1.97   0.048     .0003038    .0819
> 002
           1982  |   .0360114   .0190378     1.89   0.059     -.001302    .0733
> 248
           1983  |   .0644746   .0229609     2.81   0.005     .0194721    .1094
> 771
           1984  |    .012347   .0220328     0.56   0.575    -.0308364    .0555
> 305
           1985  |   .0330161   .0260581     1.27   0.205    -.0180568     .084
> 089
           1986  |   .0430865     .02556     1.69   0.092    -.0070101    .0931
> 832
           1987  |   .0315823   .0209733     1.51   0.132    -.0095246    .0726
> 891
           1988  |   .0268599   .0206219     1.30   0.193    -.0135583    .0672
> 781
           1989  |   .0367563   .0203933     1.80   0.071    -.0032138    .0767
> 263
           1990  |   .0911634   .0287395     3.17   0.002      .034835    .1474
> 917
           1991  |   .0540836   .0185236     2.92   0.004      .017778    .0903
> 892
           1992  |   .0687209   .0198094     3.47   0.001     .0298951    .1075
> 467
           1993  |   .0557022   .0185255     3.01   0.003     .0193929    .0920
> 114
           1994  |   .0512715   .0175544     2.92   0.003     .0168655    .0856
> 775
           1995  |   .0535115   .0171242     3.12   0.002     .0199486    .0870
> 743
           1996  |    .044702   .0167518     2.67   0.008     .0118691     .077
> 535
           1997  |   .0441085    .016833     2.62   0.009     .0111163    .0771
> 006
           1998  |   .0377102   .0165655     2.28   0.023     .0052425    .0701
> 779
           1999  |   .0432123   .0165895     2.60   0.009     .0106975     .075
> 727
           2000  |   .0516189   .0169898     3.04   0.002     .0183195    .0849
> 184
           2001  |   .0435451   .0168564     2.58   0.010     .0105072    .0765
> 831
           2002  |   .0483556   .0183933     2.63   0.009     .0123054    .0844
> 057
           2003  |   .0524173   .0177504     2.95   0.003     .0176271    .0872
> 074
           2004  |   .0453694   .0175286     2.59   0.010     .0110139    .0797
> 249
           2005  |   .0532208   .0175193     3.04   0.002     .0188837    .0875
> 579
           2006  |   .0474238   .0175488     2.70   0.007     .0130287    .0818
> 188
           2007  |   .0443927   .0174399     2.55   0.011     .0102111    .0785
> 742
           2008  |   .0463172   .0177202     2.61   0.009     .0115862    .0810
> 482
           2009  |   .0539172   .0191504     2.82   0.005     .0163831    .0914
> 514
           2010  |    .058623   .0188907     3.10   0.002     .0215979    .0956
> 482
           2011  |   .0525997   .0188458     2.79   0.005     .0156627    .0895
> 368
           2012  |   .0481775   .0186362     2.59   0.010     .0116513    .0847
> 037
           2013  |   .0468903   .0196974     2.38   0.017     .0082841    .0854
> 965
           2014  |   .0419936     .01902     2.21   0.027     .0047151    .0792
> 721
                 |
           ccode |
             51  |   .0125107    .016573     0.75   0.450    -.0199717    .0449
> 931
             70  |  -.0087137   .0194144    -0.45   0.654    -.0467653    .0293
> 379
             90  |   .0069397   .0265292     0.26   0.794    -.0450565    .0589
> 359
             91  |   -.013351    .027247    -0.49   0.624    -.0667542    .0400
> 522
             92  |   .0599825   .0242757     2.47   0.013     .0124029     .107
> 562
             93  |   .0138436   .0235946     0.59   0.557     -.032401    .0600
> 883
             94  |   .0052882   .0156684     0.34   0.736    -.0254213    .0359
> 977
             95  |   .0318504   .0322643     0.99   0.324    -.0313865    .0950
> 872
            100  |  -.0167694   .0236368    -0.71   0.478    -.0630966    .0295
> 578
            101  |   .0167537   .0140067     1.20   0.232    -.0106991    .0442
> 064
            130  |    .038444   .0249331     1.54   0.123     -.010424     .087
> 312
            135  |  -.0217205   .0257566    -0.84   0.399    -.0722025    .0287
> 614
            140  |  -.0357897   .0200397    -1.79   0.074    -.0750669    .0034
> 874
            145  |    .055208   .0266761     2.07   0.038     .0029237    .1074
> 923
            150  |   .0498754   .0207991     2.40   0.016     .0091099    .0906
> 409
            155  |   .0079551   .0201814     0.39   0.693    -.0315998      .04
> 751
            160  |   .0219633   .0133579     1.64   0.100    -.0042178    .0481
> 444
            165  |  -.0104937   .0218585    -0.48   0.631    -.0533355    .0323
> 481
            290  |   .0100481   .0139937     0.72   0.473    -.0173791    .0374
> 753
            310  |   .0060762   .0137891     0.44   0.659      -.02095    .0331
> 024
            316  |   .0053493   .0158472     0.34   0.736    -.0257106    .0364
> 092
            317  |  -.0019941   .0151139    -0.13   0.895    -.0316168    .0276
> 286
            339  |  -.0154474   .0183354    -0.84   0.400    -.0513841    .0204
> 893
            342  |   .0186503    .015067     1.24   0.216    -.0108805    .0481
> 811
            343  |  -.0043157   .0156752    -0.28   0.783    -.0350386    .0264
> 072
            344  |   .0143746   .0146639     0.98   0.327     -.014366    .0431
> 153
            346  |    .032343    .021639     1.49   0.135    -.0100686    .0747
> 546
            349  |   .0052203   .0163302     0.32   0.749    -.0267862    .0372
> 269
            355  |  -.0037554   .0206576    -0.18   0.856    -.0442436    .0367
> 328
            359  |  -.0289478   .0268668    -1.08   0.281    -.0816058    .0237
> 102
            360  |   .0220593   .0128722     1.71   0.087    -.0031698    .0472
> 884
            366  |  -.0027729   .0161538    -0.17   0.864    -.0344338     .028
> 888
            367  |  -.0063404   .0149829    -0.42   0.672    -.0357063    .0230
> 256
            368  |  -.0114654   .0186617    -0.61   0.539    -.0480417    .0251
> 109
            369  |  -.0479957   .0203525    -2.36   0.018    -.0878858   -.0081
> 056
            371  |  -.0413576   .0227159    -1.82   0.069    -.0858799    .0031
> 647
            402  |   .0200011   .0239288     0.84   0.403    -.0268984    .0669
> 006
            404  |  -.0599328    .042803    -1.40   0.161    -.1438252    .0239
> 596
            432  |  -.0161708   .0327774    -0.49   0.622    -.0804134    .0480
> 718
            433  |  -.0088788   .0291961    -0.30   0.761    -.0661021    .0483
> 444
            434  |  -.0062245   .0236522    -0.26   0.792    -.0525821     .040
> 133
            436  |    -.01768   .0346644    -0.51   0.610    -.0856209    .0502
> 609
            450  |   .0009833    .037236     0.03   0.979    -.0719978    .0739
> 645
            451  |     .04864   .0465832     1.04   0.296    -.0426614    .1399
> 414
            452  |   .0231944   .0284974     0.81   0.416    -.0326595    .0790
> 483
            475  |  -.0918189   .0290438    -3.16   0.002    -.1487436   -.0348
> 941
            482  |  -.0233709   .0334176    -0.70   0.484    -.0888682    .0421
> 264
            484  |  -.0626004   .0304225    -2.06   0.040    -.1222274   -.0029
> 735
            500  |   -.140626   .0341574    -4.12   0.000    -.2075732   -.0736
> 787
            501  |  -.0600956   .0377762    -1.59   0.112    -.1341357    .0139
> 444
            516  |  -.1389411    .040103    -3.46   0.001    -.2175415   -.0603
> 407
            553  |  -.0738181   .0441314    -1.67   0.094     -.160314    .0126
> 778
            580  |   .0375708   .0433567     0.87   0.386    -.0474069    .1225
> 484
            581  |   .0223005   .0275442     0.81   0.418    -.0316851     .076
> 286
            590  |   .0136206   .0153322     0.89   0.374      -.01643    .0436
> 713
            625  |  -.0032778    .071607    -0.05   0.963     -.143625    .1370
> 694
            640  |  -.0349146   .0206316    -1.69   0.091    -.0753519    .0055
> 227
            666  |    .016462   .0225129     0.73   0.465    -.0276625    .0605
> 866
            703  |  -.0940099   .0313672    -3.00   0.003    -.1554884   -.0325
> 314
            712  |  -.0093442   .0293496    -0.32   0.750    -.0668684    .0481
> 801
            713  |    .014232   .0213978     0.67   0.506     -.027707     .056
> 171
            732  |  -.0193634   .0180737    -1.07   0.284    -.0547872    .0160
> 605
            750  |   .0622463   .0349301     1.78   0.075    -.0062156    .1307
> 081
            770  |  -.0408089   .0320324    -1.27   0.203    -.1035911    .0219
> 734
            771  |  -.0811347   .0353021    -2.30   0.022    -.1503255   -.0119
> 439
            780  |  -.0218118    .025715    -0.85   0.396    -.0722122    .0285
> 886
            790  |  -.0334636   .0372544    -0.90   0.369    -.1064809    .0395
> 537
            800  |  -.0232329    .022399    -1.04   0.300    -.0671341    .0206
> 684
            840  |  -.0257834   .0343644    -0.75   0.453    -.0931364    .0415
> 695
            850  |  -.0158465   .0225907    -0.70   0.483    -.0601235    .0284
> 305
                 |
           _cons |   .0794461   .1391579     0.57   0.568    -.1932984    .3521
> 905
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             25.753
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               19.811
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         24.455
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hansen J statistic (overidentification test of all instruments):         0.000
                                                 (equation exactly identified)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.v2x_clphy imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal 1976.year 1977.year 1978.year
                      1979.year 1980.year 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year
                      1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year
                      1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year
                      1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year
                      1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year
                      2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year
                      2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year
                      2014.year 51.ccode 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode
                      93.ccode 94.ccode 95.ccode 100.ccode 101.ccode 130.ccode
                      135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccode 155.ccode
                      160.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode 310.ccode 316.ccode
                      317.ccode 339.ccode 342.ccode 343.ccode 344.ccode
                      346.ccode 349.ccode 355.ccode 359.ccode 360.ccode
                      366.ccode 367.ccode 368.ccode 369.ccode 371.ccode
                      402.ccode 404.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode
                      436.ccode 450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 475.ccode
                      482.ccode 484.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode 516.ccode
                      553.ccode 580.ccode 581.ccode 590.ccode 625.ccode
                      640.ccode 666.ccode 703.ccode 712.ccode 713.ccode
                      732.ccode 750.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode 780.ccode
                      790.ccode 800.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store vdem

. qui tab ccode if e(sample)

. di r(r)
71

. 
. * Tables A3 and A4 (descriptive stats and pairwise correlations for developin
> g democracies sample) *
. qui ivreg2 theta_mean l1.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog
> _liquidity_1) e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.year i.ccode
>  if year>1974 & year<2015 & advanced==0, robust   

. sum theta_mean v2x_clphy imf_maxlog_liquidity_1 imf_movingavg1  e_migdppcln v
> 2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal if e(sample)  

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
  theta_mean |      1,551   -.0319099    1.296318    -3.1367    3.08861
   v2x_clphy |      1,551    .7318736    .2160299       .067       .975
imf_maxlog~1 |      1,551    2.718402    1.437892          0    6.58339
imf_moving~1 |      1,551    .4918649    .2477117          0          1
 e_migdppcln |      1,551    8.689156    .9375459      6.545     10.636
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 v2xcl_acjst |      1,551    .6750522    .2227415        .02       .971
v2exl_legi~l |      1,551   -.7106551    1.092524      -2.72      2.052
     actotal |      1,551    .8123791    1.774443          0         10

. corr theta_mean imf_maxlog_liquidity_1 imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
>  v2exl_legitideol actotal if e(sample)  
(obs=1,551)

             | theta_~n imf_ma~1 imf_mo~1 e_migd~n v2xcl_~t v2exl_~l  actotal
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
  theta_mean |   1.0000
imf_maxlog~1 |   0.0823   1.0000
imf_moving~1 |   0.0380   0.9578   1.0000
 e_migdppcln |   0.3443  -0.1122  -0.1523   1.0000
 v2xcl_acjst |   0.5874  -0.0147  -0.0373   0.4246   1.0000
v2exl_legi~l |  -0.2795  -0.1043  -0.1098  -0.1183  -0.2934   1.0000
     actotal |  -0.6390  -0.1368  -0.1047  -0.1365  -0.3025   0.2039   1.0000


. 
. * Figure 3 in main paper *
. coefplot fariss vdem, keep(l1.theta_mean l1.v2x_clphy imfprogram_uu imf_movin
> gavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal) coeflabel(l1.theta_me
> an = "Lagged HR Measure" l1.v2x_clphy = "Lagged HR Measure" imfprogram_uu = "
> IMF Program Participation (Inst.)" imf_movingavg1 = "Moving IMF Program Parti
> c. Avg." e_migdppcln = "Log  of Per Capita GDP"  v2xcl_acjst = "Access to Jus
> tice Index" v2exl_legitideol = "Ideological Commitment" actotal = "Magnitude 
> of War Intensity") xline(0) xtitle(Coefficient and 95% Confidence Interval) x
> lab(-.6(.1).5) legend(off) ciopts(pstyle(p4)) mcolor(black black black black 
> black black black) msize(small) mlabposition(1) mlabgap(*0.1) mlabel(cond(@pv
> al<.01, "***",cond(@pval<.05, "**", cond(@pval<.1, "*",  cond(@pval<.15, "", 
> ""))))) note(" * p < .1, ** p < .05, *** p < .01") scheme(s2mono) graphregion
> (fcolor(white) ilcolor(white) lcolor(white)) 

. 
. clear 

. 
. *****************************************************************************
> ********************************************************
. ******** STATISTICAL ANALYSES OF PHYS. INTEGRITY RIGHTS-IMF PROGRAM PARTICIPA
> TION LINK (ONLY AUTOCRATIC REGIMES) ********************
. *****************************************************************************
> ********************************************************
. 
. cd "/Users/stephennelson/Desktop/Aug24ISQReplication"
/Users/stephennelson/Desktop/Aug24ISQReplication

. use "autocracies_IMFprograms_ISQ.dta"

. 
. set matsize 800

. tsset ccode year, yearly
       panel variable:  ccode (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1972 to 2014, but with gaps
                delta:  1 year

. 
. ***** Figure 2 (in main paper) *****
. gen imf_above_median = 1 if imf_avg_1970_2014>.377 & imf_avg_1970_2014 !=.
(1,865 missing values generated)

. recode imf_above_median . = 0
(imf_above_median: 1865 changes made)

. gen imf_below_median = 1 if imf_avg_1970_2014<.377 & imf_avg_1970_2014 !=.
(1,915 missing values generated)

. recode imf_below_median . = 0
(imf_below_median: 1915 changes made)

. gen imf_zero = 1 if imf_avg_1970_2014==0
(3,005 missing values generated)

. egen theta_mean_zero = mean(theta_mean) if imf_zero==1, by(year)
(3005 missing values generated)

. egen theta_mean_above = mean(theta_mean) if imf_above_median==1, by(year)
(1865 missing values generated)

. egen theta_mean_below = mean(theta_mean) if imf_below_median==1, by(year)
(1915 missing values generated)

. twoway (line theta_mean_above theta_mean_below theta_mean_zero year, yaxis(1)
>  sort msymbol(d t p) connect (l l l) lwidth (medthin thin vthin) ytitle("Phys
> . Integrity Rights Avg.", axis(1)) xlab(1973(10)2013) xtitle("")) (line log_i
> mf_liquidity_ratio year if ccode==41, yaxis(2) sort msymbol(-) connect (l) yt
> itle("IMF Liquidity Ratio", axis(2)) xlab(1973(10)2013) xtitle("") legend(col
> s(1) order(1 2 3 4) lab(1 "Phys. Integrity Rights Avg. (high IMF probability)
> ") lab(2 "Phys. Integrity Rights Avg. (low IMF probability)") lab (3 "Phys. I
> ntegrity Rights Avg. (zero IMF probability)") lab (4 "IMF Liquidity") stack) 
> scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white) ilcolor(white) lcolor(white)))
(note:  named style - not found in class symbol, default attributes used)

. 
. ***** Table 1 (in main paper) *****
. * Col 1 *
. ivreg2 theta_mean l.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liqu
> idity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.year i.ccode, ro
> bust 
Warning: time variable year has 24 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2858
                                                      F(152,  2705) =  1255.21
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =   3196.52061                Centered R2   =   0.9639
Total (uncentered) SS   =  5057.597112                Uncentered R2 =   0.9772
Residual SS             =  115.5084868                Root MSE      =     .201

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |  -.1568399   .0747599    -2.10   0.036    -.3033665   -.0103
> 132
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8640132   .0154916    55.77   0.000     .8336502    .8943
> 763
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0310538   .0835046     0.37   0.710    -.1326122    .1947
> 197
     e_migdppcln |   .0037266   .0186942     0.20   0.842    -.0329134    .0403
> 666
     v2xcl_acjst |     .37411   .0990421     3.78   0.000     .1799911    .5682
> 289
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0197323   .0096977    -2.03   0.042    -.0387395   -.0007
> 251
         actotal |  -.0369422   .0045078    -8.20   0.000    -.0457774    -.028
> 107
                 |
            year |
           1975  |  -.0259967   .0333916    -0.78   0.436     -.091443    .0394
> 496
           1976  |  -.0435044   .0405188    -1.07   0.283    -.1229198     .035
> 911
           1977  |  -.0278785   .0392649    -0.71   0.478    -.1048362    .0490
> 792
           1978  |  -.0299336   .0403974    -0.74   0.459     -.109111    .0492
> 438
           1979  |    .003508   .0387638     0.09   0.928    -.0724677    .0794
> 836
           1980  |   .0491691   .0492153     1.00   0.318    -.0472912    .1456
> 294
           1981  |    .011675   .0426249     0.27   0.784    -.0718682    .0952
> 183
           1982  |   .0154304   .0407023     0.38   0.705    -.0643446    .0952
> 053
           1983  |     .00222   .0447175     0.05   0.960    -.0854247    .0898
> 647
           1984  |   .0088644   .0382753     0.23   0.817    -.0661538    .0838
> 827
           1985  |   .0208238    .037676     0.55   0.580    -.0530199    .0946
> 675
           1986  |   .0590648   .0400517     1.47   0.140    -.0194351    .1375
> 647
           1987  |   .0547266   .0415628     1.32   0.188    -.0267351    .1361
> 882
           1988  |   .0305331   .0465865     0.66   0.512    -.0607747    .1218
> 408
           1989  |   .0288934   .0477524     0.61   0.545    -.0646996    .1224
> 864
           1990  |  -.0692004   .0708014    -0.98   0.328    -.2079686    .0695
> 678
           1991  |  -.0256849   .0481244    -0.53   0.594    -.1200069    .0686
> 372
           1992  |   .0234444   .0454287     0.52   0.606    -.0655943     .112
> 483
           1993  |  -.0009967   .0428951    -0.02   0.981    -.0850696    .0830
> 761
           1994  |  -.0190295   .0424023    -0.45   0.654    -.1021364    .0640
> 774
           1995  |   .0581777   .0480411     1.21   0.226    -.0359811    .1523
> 366
           1996  |   .0660888   .0448971     1.47   0.141    -.0219079    .1540
> 856
           1997  |   .0015196   .0411894     0.04   0.971    -.0792101    .0822
> 494
           1998  |   .0045366   .0422204     0.11   0.914    -.0782139    .0872
> 871
           1999  |   .0260092   .0401137     0.65   0.517    -.0526122    .1046
> 305
           2000  |   .0153517   .0388593     0.40   0.693    -.0608111    .0915
> 144
           2001  |   .0348982   .0396504     0.88   0.379    -.0428152    .1126
> 116
           2002  |   .0446192   .0427292     1.04   0.296    -.0391285     .128
> 367
           2003  |   .0178492   .0389932     0.46   0.647     -.058576    .0942
> 744
           2004  |    .055534   .0526534     1.05   0.292    -.0476647    .1587
> 327
           2005  |  -.0128622   .0390724    -0.33   0.742    -.0894427    .0637
> 182
           2006  |   .0006788   .0395509     0.02   0.986    -.0768395    .0781
> 971
           2007  |  -.0050502   .0405967    -0.12   0.901    -.0846183    .0745
> 179
           2008  |   .0311142    .040728     0.76   0.445    -.0487112    .1109
> 396
           2009  |   .0396466   .0409455     0.97   0.333     -.040605    .1198
> 982
           2010  |   .0188627   .0405621     0.47   0.642    -.0606376    .0983
> 629
           2011  |  -.0480214   .0463805    -1.04   0.300    -.1389255    .0428
> 828
           2012  |   .0100557   .0383275     0.26   0.793    -.0650648    .0851
> 762
           2013  |  -.0031509   .0419612    -0.08   0.940    -.0853933    .0790
> 915
           2014  |  -.0101495   .0403334    -0.25   0.801    -.0892015    .0689
> 024
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.1249122   .0613432    -2.04   0.042    -.2451427   -.0046
> 817
             90  |  -.0218867   .0577619    -0.38   0.705    -.1350979    .0913
> 245
             91  |  -.0908268   .0882862    -1.03   0.304    -.2638647     .082
> 211
             92  |  -.1505125   .0732118    -2.06   0.040     -.294005     -.00
> 702
             93  |  -.1429231   .0632985    -2.26   0.024    -.2669859   -.0188
> 604
             95  |  -.0413961   .0591111    -0.70   0.484    -.1572516    .0744
> 595
            130  |  -.0654557   .0561482    -1.17   0.244    -.1755042    .0445
> 929
            135  |   .0065224   .0720149     0.09   0.928    -.1346242     .147
> 669
            140  |  -.0988934   .0567521    -1.74   0.081    -.2101255    .0123
> 386
            145  |  -.0989094   .0562385    -1.76   0.079    -.2091349     .011
> 316
            150  |  -.0606534   .0569767    -1.06   0.287    -.1723257    .0510
> 189
            155  |  -.0096018   .0621267    -0.15   0.877     -.131368    .1121
> 644
            160  |  -.2045552   .2156594    -0.95   0.343      -.62724    .2181
> 295
            165  |  -.0688104    .062469    -1.10   0.271    -.1912474    .0536
> 266
            290  |   .0355363   .0944718     0.38   0.707     -.149625    .2206
> 975
            310  |   .1928479   .0918603     2.10   0.036      .012805    .3728
> 907
            339  |   .0191769   .0603176     0.32   0.751    -.0990435    .1373
> 972
            346  |   .1525981   .1681837     0.91   0.364     -.177036    .4822
> 322
            355  |   .2074909   .1244465     1.67   0.095    -.0364197    .4514
> 015
            360  |  -.0384775   .0603634    -0.64   0.524    -.1567875    .0798
> 326
            365  |  -.2162832   .0704166    -3.07   0.002    -.3542972   -.0782
> 692
            370  |  -.1755679   .0833538    -2.11   0.035    -.3389382   -.0121
> 975
            372  |  -.0907157   .0759533    -1.19   0.232    -.2395814      .05
> 815
            373  |    .139029   .0668518     2.08   0.038      .008002    .2700
> 561
            402  |   .0130656   .0870253     0.15   0.881    -.1575009    .1836
> 321
            404  |   .0539964   .0700001     0.77   0.440    -.0832012     .191
> 194
            411  |   .0603479   .0755277     0.80   0.424    -.0876838    .2083
> 795
            420  |  -.0310145   .0735871    -0.42   0.673    -.1752426    .1132
> 135
            432  |    -.15848   .0838772    -1.89   0.059    -.3228762    .0059
> 162
            433  |  -.1177487   .0815126    -1.44   0.149    -.2775104     .042
> 013
            434  |   .0212071   .1268991     0.17   0.867    -.2275106    .2699
> 248
            435  |  -.0307609   .0753407    -0.41   0.683    -.1784259    .1169
> 041
            436  |  -.0692312    .078409    -0.88   0.377    -.2229101    .0844
> 476
            437  |  -.0451503   .0656164    -0.69   0.491     -.173756    .0834
> 555
            438  |   .0476308   .0704415     0.68   0.499    -.0904319    .1856
> 935
            439  |  -.0771615   .0763784    -1.01   0.312    -.2268605    .0725
> 376
            450  |  -.0895615    .086801    -1.03   0.302    -.2596882    .0805
> 653
            451  |   .0128949   .0801959     0.16   0.872    -.1442862     .170
> 076
            452  |   .0767703   .0793585     0.97   0.333    -.0787695      .23
> 231
            461  |  -.0337519    .066447    -0.51   0.611    -.1639856    .0964
> 818
            471  |  -.1192432   .0664078    -1.80   0.073    -.2494002    .0109
> 137
            475  |  -.2388177   .0809164    -2.95   0.003     -.397411   -.0802
> 244
            481  |   .0154657   .0676135     0.23   0.819    -.1170544    .1479
> 858
            482  |  -.0229694   .0668409    -0.34   0.731    -.1539751    .1080
> 364
            483  |  -.0113262   .0631673    -0.18   0.858    -.1351318    .1124
> 795
            484  |    .065331   .0719314     0.91   0.364     -.075652     .206
> 314
            490  |  -.1032025   .0631196    -1.64   0.102    -.2269146    .0205
> 097
            500  |  -.1734969   .0820122    -2.12   0.034     -.334238   -.0127
> 559
            501  |  -.0148399   .0525084    -0.28   0.777    -.1177545    .0880
> 746
            510  |  -.0683275   .0709564    -0.96   0.336    -.2073996    .0707
> 446
            516  |  -.1351605    .123224    -1.10   0.273     -.376675    .1063
> 541
            517  |  -.1081087    .094669    -1.14   0.253    -.2936565    .0774
> 392
            522  |  -.0182726    .072523    -0.25   0.801     -.160415    .1238
> 699
            530  |  -.0686996   .0722734    -0.95   0.342    -.2103528    .0729
> 536
            540  |  -.0341777     .07031    -0.49   0.627    -.1719827    .1036
> 273
            541  |  -.0490986   .0732537    -0.67   0.503    -.1926733    .0944
> 761
            551  |  -.0735341   .0673155    -1.09   0.275      -.20547    .0584
> 018
            552  |  -.1235393   .0666822    -1.85   0.064     -.254234    .0071
> 554
            553  |  -.0243847   .0746278    -0.33   0.744    -.1706525     .121
> 883
            560  |  -.2183503   .0728573    -3.00   0.003    -.3611479   -.0755
> 527
            565  |  -.1335279   .1018101    -1.31   0.190    -.3330721    .0660
> 163
            570  |  -.0660586   .0773399    -0.85   0.393     -.217642    .0855
> 249
            571  |  -.0296568   .0898424    -0.33   0.741    -.2057448    .1464
> 311
            572  |    -.02096   .0760386    -0.28   0.783     -.169993     .128
> 073
            580  |    .015718   .0602433     0.26   0.794    -.1023566    .1337
> 927
            581  |  -.0141167   .0767875    -0.18   0.854    -.1646173     .136
> 384
            600  |  -.1607228    .078739    -2.04   0.041    -.3150485   -.0063
> 971
            615  |  -.1262101   .0810288    -1.56   0.119    -.2850237    .0326
> 035
            616  |   -.231097   .0823975    -2.80   0.005     -.392593   -.0696
> 009
            620  |  -.1408383   .0737455    -1.91   0.056    -.2853768    .0037
> 002
            625  |   -.090311   .0522089    -1.73   0.084    -.1926386    .0120
> 165
            630  |   -.111838   .0703808    -1.59   0.112    -.2497818    .0261
> 058
            640  |   .0250432   .0613324     0.41   0.683     -.095166    .1452
> 525
            645  |   .0382345   .0724638     0.53   0.598    -.1037919    .1802
> 609
            651  |  -.2392937   .0692376    -3.46   0.001    -.3749969   -.1035
> 905
            652  |  -.1172152   .0658857    -1.78   0.075    -.2463488    .0119
> 183
            660  |  -.0792261   .0727567    -1.09   0.276    -.2218266    .0633
> 743
            663  |  -.1139833   .0731776    -1.56   0.119    -.2574088    .0294
> 421
            670  |  -.0211076   .0669624    -0.32   0.753    -.1523516    .1101
> 363
            679  |  -.1028413   .0613096    -1.68   0.093     -.223006    .0173
> 234
            690  |  -.1366742   .1054173    -1.30   0.195    -.3432882    .0699
> 399
            694  |   .0603126   .0915303     0.66   0.510    -.1190835    .2397
> 086
            698  |  -.0192242   .0886651    -0.22   0.828    -.1930046    .1545
> 563
            700  |  -.1280755   .0769165    -1.67   0.096     -.278829    .0226
> 781
            701  |   .0437417   .0662732     0.66   0.509    -.0861514    .1736
> 347
            702  |   .0919197    .060886     1.51   0.131    -.0274147    .2112
> 541
            703  |  -.0613224   .0649075    -0.94   0.345    -.1885388    .0658
> 939
            704  |  -.0758996   .0599359    -1.27   0.205    -.1933717    .0415
> 726
            705  |   -.220566   .0794526    -2.78   0.006    -.3762902   -.0648
> 419
            710  |   -.136262   .0701195    -1.94   0.052    -.2736936    .0011
> 697
            712  |   .0957752    .113374     0.84   0.398    -.1264337    .3179
> 841
            732  |  -.1437621    .061068    -2.35   0.019    -.2634532   -.0240
> 711
            760  |   .0434346   .1362139     0.32   0.750    -.2235397     .310
> 409
            770  |  -.0639424   .0513473    -1.25   0.213    -.1645813    .0366
> 965
            771  |  -.0551733   .0604301    -0.91   0.361    -.1736141    .0632
> 674
            775  |   -.053328   .0552539    -0.97   0.334    -.1616236    .0549
> 677
            780  |  -.1368765   .0997255    -1.37   0.170    -.3323349    .0585
> 818
            790  |  -.0600587   .0670892    -0.90   0.371    -.1915512    .0714
> 338
            800  |  -.1661027   .0719415    -2.31   0.021    -.3071054   -.0251
> 001
            811  |   .0105348   .0685401     0.15   0.878    -.1238013    .1448
> 709
            812  |   .1284232   .0698539     1.84   0.066    -.0084878    .2653
> 343
            816  |    .062362   .0649173     0.96   0.337    -.0648736    .1895
> 975
            820  |  -.0823883   .0774343    -1.06   0.287    -.2341567    .0693
> 801
            840  |   .1219683   .0561303     2.17   0.030      .011955    .2319
> 817
            850  |  -.0839945   .0686659    -1.22   0.221    -.2185773    .0505
> 882
                 |
           _cons |  -.1445032   .1583746    -0.91   0.362    -.4549118    .1659
> 053
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             65.272
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               56.651
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         60.841
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal 1975.year 1976.year 1977.year
                      1978.year 1979.year 1980.year 1981.year 1982.year
                      1983.year 1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year
                      1988.year 1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year
                      1993.year 1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year
                      1998.year 1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year
                      2003.year 2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year
                      2008.year 2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year
                      2013.year 2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode
                      93.ccode 95.ccode 130.ccode 135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode
                      150.ccode 155.ccode 160.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode
                      310.ccode 339.ccode 346.ccode 355.ccode 360.ccode
                      365.ccode 370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode
                      404.ccode 411.ccode 420.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode
                      434.ccode 435.ccode 436.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode
                      439.ccode 450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode
                      471.ccode 475.ccode 481.ccode 482.ccode 483.ccode
                      484.ccode 490.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode 510.ccode
                      516.ccode 517.ccode 522.ccode 530.ccode 540.ccode
                      541.ccode 551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode
                      565.ccode 570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode 580.ccode
                      581.ccode 600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode
                      625.ccode 630.ccode 640.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode
                      652.ccode 660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode
                      690.ccode 694.ccode 698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode
                      702.ccode 703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode
                      712.ccode 732.ccode 760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode
                      775.ccode 780.ccode 790.ccode 800.ccode 811.ccode
                      812.ccode 816.ccode 820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. qui tab country if e(sample)

. di r(r)
107

. * Col 2 *
. ivreg2 theta_mean l.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liqu
> idity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal debt_crisis ungaid
> ealpoint2 i.year i.ccode, robust 
Warning: time variable year has 37 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2680
                                                      F(153,  2526) =  1160.82
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  2993.999363                Centered R2   =   0.9632
Total (uncentered) SS   =  4693.124651                Uncentered R2 =   0.9766
Residual SS             =  110.0522172                Root MSE      =    .2026

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |    -.15974    .076564    -2.09   0.037    -.3098026   -.0096
> 774
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8551102    .016472    51.91   0.000     .8228257    .8873
> 947
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0074286   .0856488     0.09   0.931    -.1604398    .1752
> 971
     e_migdppcln |  -.0029789   .0211625    -0.14   0.888    -.0444566    .0384
> 988
     v2xcl_acjst |   .3503898   .1120405     3.13   0.002     .1307944    .5699
> 852
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0208834    .010829    -1.93   0.054    -.0421079    .0003
> 411
         actotal |   -.041788   .0049691    -8.41   0.000    -.0515273   -.0320
> 487
     debt_crisis |   .0434932   .0301632     1.44   0.149    -.0156255     .102
> 612
 ungaidealpoint2 |   .0285741   .0181539     1.57   0.115    -.0070068     .064
> 155
                 |
            year |
           1975  |  -.0250431   .0339506    -0.74   0.461    -.0915851    .0414
> 989
           1976  |  -.0432576   .0409775    -1.06   0.291     -.123572    .0370
> 569
           1977  |  -.0311185   .0400515    -0.78   0.437    -.1096179    .0473
> 809
           1978  |  -.0277501   .0411157    -0.67   0.500    -.1083355    .0528
> 353
           1979  |   .0072183   .0404049     0.18   0.858    -.0719739    .0864
> 104
           1980  |   .0549893    .050522     1.09   0.276     -.044032    .1540
> 105
           1981  |    .018897   .0447794     0.42   0.673     -.068869     .106
> 663
           1982  |   .0222716   .0428593     0.52   0.603    -.0617311    .1062
> 742
           1983  |   .0053868   .0468142     0.12   0.908    -.0863674     .097
> 141
           1984  |   .0189235   .0415049     0.46   0.648    -.0624245    .1002
> 715
           1985  |   .0359913   .0411985     0.87   0.382    -.0447562    .1167
> 388
           1986  |   .0735588   .0437052     1.68   0.092    -.0121019    .1592
> 194
           1987  |   .0705292   .0464101     1.52   0.129    -.0204329    .1614
> 914
           1988  |   .0462885   .0518169     0.89   0.372    -.0552707    .1478
> 477
           1989  |   .0428326   .0537338     0.80   0.425    -.0624837    .1481
> 489
           1990  |  -.0436087   .0745138    -0.59   0.558    -.1896531    .1024
> 357
           1991  |  -.0037957   .0536959    -0.07   0.944    -.1090377    .1014
> 463
           1992  |   .0480125   .0518731     0.93   0.355    -.0536569    .1496
> 818
           1993  |   .0227137   .0490007     0.46   0.643    -.0733259    .1187
> 532
           1994  |   .0001893   .0497066     0.00   0.997    -.0972339    .0976
> 124
           1995  |   .0820586   .0550216     1.49   0.136    -.0257818    .1898
> 989
           1996  |    .093273   .0523777     1.78   0.075    -.0093854    .1959
> 314
           1997  |   .0325628   .0490547     0.66   0.507    -.0635827    .1287
> 083
           1998  |   .0382102    .049789     0.77   0.443    -.0593745    .1357
> 948
           1999  |   .0646421   .0474455     1.36   0.173    -.0283494    .1576
> 337
           2000  |   .0501126   .0456504     1.10   0.272    -.0393606    .1395
> 858
           2001  |   .0765586   .0485427     1.58   0.115    -.0185833    .1717
> 005
           2002  |   .0824492   .0514885     1.60   0.109    -.0184664    .1833
> 647
           2003  |   .0534147   .0479345     1.11   0.265    -.0405353    .1473
> 646
           2004  |   .0825834   .0592431     1.39   0.163     -.033531    .1986
> 978
           2005  |    .015175   .0453824     0.33   0.738    -.0737729     .104
> 123
           2006  |    .030088   .0454789     0.66   0.508     -.059049    .1192
> 251
           2007  |   .0248465   .0461122     0.54   0.590    -.0655317    .1152
> 247
           2008  |    .061123   .0469789     1.30   0.193    -.0309539    .1531
> 999
           2009  |    .068297   .0484048     1.41   0.158    -.0265746    .1631
> 686
           2010  |   .0483495   .0474866     1.02   0.309    -.0447225    .1414
> 215
           2011  |    -.01742   .0504483    -0.35   0.730    -.1162967    .0814
> 568
           2012  |   .0434859   .0448978     0.97   0.333    -.0445122    .1314
> 839
           2013  |    .086077   .0554122     1.55   0.120    -.0225288    .1946
> 829
           2014  |   .0271713   .0516384     0.53   0.599    -.0740381    .1283
> 807
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.1003411   .0659485    -1.52   0.128    -.2295978    .0289
> 155
             90  |  -.0200455   .0628728    -0.32   0.750    -.1432739     .103
> 183
             91  |  -.0783196   .0922022    -0.85   0.396    -.2590325    .1023
> 933
             92  |  -.1426236    .077479    -1.84   0.066    -.2944797    .0092
> 325
             93  |  -.1048072   .0632357    -1.66   0.097     -.228747    .0191
> 325
             95  |  -.0054892   .0618443    -0.09   0.929    -.1267017    .1157
> 234
            130  |   -.045224    .058032    -0.78   0.436    -.1589647    .0685
> 166
            135  |   .0188349   .0737386     0.26   0.798    -.1256901    .1633
> 599
            140  |  -.0869236   .0582733    -1.49   0.136    -.2011373      .02
> 729
            145  |  -.0993206   .0572328    -1.74   0.083    -.2114949    .0128
> 537
            150  |  -.0825341    .062423    -1.32   0.186    -.2048809    .0398
> 127
            155  |  -.0102289   .0638943    -0.16   0.873    -.1354594    .1150
> 016
            160  |  -.1852766   .2135156    -0.87   0.386    -.6037595    .2332
> 062
            165  |   -.058465   .0646912    -0.90   0.366    -.1852575    .0683
> 275
            290  |   .0752973   .0964707     0.78   0.435    -.1137818    .2643
> 763
            310  |   .2740986   .1003841     2.73   0.006     .0773494    .4708
> 478
            339  |   .0498368   .0620388     0.80   0.422    -.0717571    .1714
> 307
            346  |   .1849793   .2097877     0.88   0.378    -.2261969    .5961
> 556
            355  |   .1545384   .1479519     1.04   0.296     -.135442    .4445
> 188
            360  |   .0050105      .0621     0.08   0.936    -.1167032    .1267
> 243
            365  |  -.1633635   .0763299    -2.14   0.032    -.3129673   -.0137
> 598
            370  |  -.1626273    .094353    -1.72   0.085    -.3475557    .0223
> 011
            372  |  -.1133281   .0870873    -1.30   0.193     -.284016    .0573
> 598
            373  |   .1457377   .0678531     2.15   0.032     .0127481    .2787
> 273
            402  |   .0541912   .0955819     0.57   0.571    -.1331459    .2415
> 282
            404  |   .0515851   .0744293     0.69   0.488    -.0942936    .1974
> 639
            411  |   .0944642   .0851514     1.11   0.267    -.0724296    .2613
> 579
            420  |   .0064404   .0844674     0.08   0.939    -.1591126    .1719
> 934
            432  |  -.1169335   .0933421    -1.25   0.210    -.2998806    .0660
> 136
            433  |  -.0829487   .0918712    -0.90   0.367     -.263013    .0971
> 155
            434  |   .0525751   .1253329     0.42   0.675    -.1930728     .298
> 223
            435  |     .00639   .0852991     0.07   0.940    -.1607932    .1735
> 731
            436  |  -.0397992   .0881481    -0.45   0.652    -.2125663     .132
> 968
            437  |  -.0492415   .0699169    -0.70   0.481    -.1862762    .0877
> 932
            438  |   .0526744   .0762244     0.69   0.490    -.0967226    .2020
> 714
            439  |  -.0502089   .0878322    -0.57   0.568     -.222357    .1219
> 391
            450  |   .0093225   .1024187     0.09   0.927    -.1914143    .2100
> 594
            451  |   .0350754   .0828449     0.42   0.672    -.1272977    .1974
> 485
            452  |   .0989071    .083842     1.18   0.238    -.0654202    .2632
> 345
            461  |  -.0365943   .0717763    -0.51   0.610    -.1772733    .1040
> 846
            471  |  -.1059456   .0741914    -1.43   0.153     -.251358    .0394
> 669
            475  |  -.2066322   .0908973    -2.27   0.023    -.3847876   -.0284
> 769
            481  |   .0647805   .0740908     0.87   0.382    -.0804347    .2099
> 957
            482  |  -.0176561   .0721832    -0.24   0.807    -.1591326    .1238
> 204
            483  |    -.01209   .0688806    -0.18   0.861    -.1470934    .1229
> 135
            484  |   .1228994   .0748973     1.64   0.101    -.0238966    .2696
> 953
            490  |  -.1005363   .0674296    -1.49   0.136     -.232696    .0316
> 233
            500  |  -.1444778   .0905877    -1.59   0.111    -.3220264    .0330
> 708
            501  |   .0065751   .0556811     0.12   0.906    -.1025578     .115
> 708
            510  |  -.0341453    .080845    -0.42   0.673    -.1925987     .124
> 308
            516  |  -.1066513   .1296075    -0.82   0.411    -.3606773    .1473
> 748
            517  |  -.0810617   .1038086    -0.78   0.435    -.2845228    .1223
> 994
            522  |   .0046494    .080463     0.06   0.954    -.1530552     .162
> 354
            530  |  -.0420819    .079736    -0.53   0.598    -.1983615    .1141
> 978
            540  |   -.000781   .0773185    -0.01   0.992    -.1523225    .1507
> 604
            541  |  -.0131756   .0829629    -0.16   0.874      -.17578    .1494
> 288
            551  |  -.0359073   .0723021    -0.50   0.619    -.1776167    .1058
> 021
            552  |  -.1004153   .0695904    -1.44   0.149    -.2368099    .0359
> 793
            553  |  -.0365785   .0804087    -0.45   0.649    -.1941766    .1210
> 197
            560  |  -.2525584   .1074353    -2.35   0.019    -.4631278    -.041
> 989
            565  |  -.1020316   .1136121    -0.90   0.369    -.3247073     .120
> 644
            570  |   -.048335   .0878508    -0.55   0.582    -.2205194    .1238
> 495
            571  |   .0046248   .1021024     0.05   0.964    -.1954923    .2047
> 419
            572  |  -.0108554   .0827538    -0.13   0.896    -.1730499     .151
> 339
            580  |   .0527873    .068937     0.77   0.444    -.0823269    .1879
> 014
            581  |   .0039894   .0830362     0.05   0.962    -.1587585    .1667
> 373
            600  |   -.130987   .0866744    -1.51   0.131    -.3008656    .0388
> 916
            615  |   -.075515    .087204    -0.87   0.387    -.2464317    .0954
> 018
            616  |   -.208313   .0926411    -2.25   0.025    -.3898863   -.0267
> 397
            620  |  -.0978978   .0790708    -1.24   0.216    -.2528736    .0570
> 781
            625  |  -.0604059   .0546236    -1.11   0.269    -.1674661    .0466
> 543
            630  |  -.0789121   .0754202    -1.05   0.295    -.2267329    .0689
> 087
            640  |   .0373532   .0627219     0.60   0.551    -.0855796    .1602
> 859
            645  |   .1820685   .0842133     2.16   0.031     .0170134    .3471
> 235
            651  |  -.1998895   .0771971    -2.59   0.010    -.3511931    -.048
> 586
            652  |  -.0912078   .0694544    -1.31   0.189    -.2273359    .0449
> 204
            660  |  -.0387816   .0811099    -0.48   0.633     -.197754    .1201
> 909
            663  |  -.0932015   .0829481    -1.12   0.261    -.2557768    .0693
> 738
            670  |   .0069191   .0717636     0.10   0.923     -.133735    .1475
> 733
            679  |  -.0741284   .0667304    -1.11   0.267    -.2049176    .0566
> 608
            690  |  -.0827798   .1162322    -0.71   0.476    -.3105908    .1450
> 311
            694  |   .1301206   .0999964     1.30   0.193    -.0658687    .3261
> 098
            698  |   .0354277   .0966266     0.37   0.714     -.153957    .2248
> 123
            700  |  -.0993145   .0793848    -1.25   0.211    -.2549059    .0562
> 769
            701  |   .0507419   .0711101     0.71   0.475    -.0886314    .1901
> 152
            702  |   .1204076   .0641017     1.88   0.060    -.0052294    .2460
> 447
            703  |  -.0409058   .0710867    -0.58   0.565    -.1802333    .0984
> 216
            704  |  -.0715236   .0675621    -1.06   0.290    -.2039428    .0608
> 956
            705  |    -.20498    .089755    -2.28   0.022    -.3808966   -.0290
> 634
            710  |  -.1177121   .0754936    -1.56   0.119    -.2656769    .0302
> 528
            712  |   .1443021   .1238738     1.16   0.244    -.0984862    .3870
> 903
            760  |   .0388902   .1473428     0.26   0.792    -.2498964    .3276
> 769
            770  |  -.0402682   .0532299    -0.76   0.449    -.1445968    .0640
> 605
            771  |  -.0239122   .0665103    -0.36   0.719    -.1542699    .1064
> 455
            775  |  -.0260471   .0571913    -0.46   0.649    -.1381401    .0860
> 459
            780  |  -.0923815    .104104    -0.89   0.375    -.2964217    .1116
> 587
            790  |  -.0540781   .0714362    -0.76   0.449    -.1940904    .0859
> 343
            800  |  -.1788164   .0790389    -2.26   0.024    -.3337297    -.023
> 903
            811  |   .0162467   .0756297     0.21   0.830    -.1319849    .1644
> 782
            812  |   .1556529     .07659     2.03   0.042     .0055393    .3057
> 666
            816  |   .1157464   .0719292     1.61   0.108    -.0252323     .256
> 725
            820  |  -.0440394   .0842698    -0.52   0.601    -.2092052    .1211
> 264
            840  |    .163349   .0586506     2.79   0.005     .0483958    .2783
> 021
            850  |  -.0358204   .0719512    -0.50   0.619    -.1768422    .1052
> 015
                 |
           _cons |  -.1045019   .1788579    -0.58   0.559    -.4550569    .2460
> 531
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             62.499
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               58.062
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         59.479
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal debt_crisis ungaidealpoint2
                      1975.year 1976.year 1977.year 1978.year 1979.year
                      1980.year 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year 1984.year
                      1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year 1989.year
                      1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year 1994.year
                      1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year 1999.year
                      2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year 2004.year
                      2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year 2009.year
                      2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year 2014.year 70.ccod
> e
                      90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode 93.ccode 95.ccode 130.ccode
                      135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccode 155.ccode
                      160.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode 310.ccode 339.ccode
                      346.ccode 355.ccode 360.ccode 365.ccode 370.ccode
                      372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode 404.ccode 411.ccode
                      420.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode 435.ccode
                      436.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode 439.ccode 450.ccode
                      451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode 471.ccode 475.ccode
                      481.ccode 482.ccode 483.ccode 484.ccode 490.ccode
                      500.ccode 501.ccode 510.ccode 516.ccode 517.ccode
                      522.ccode 530.ccode 540.ccode 541.ccode 551.ccode
                      552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode 565.ccode 570.ccode
                      571.ccode 572.ccode 580.ccode 581.ccode 600.ccode
                      615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode 625.ccode 630.ccode
                      640.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode 652.ccode 660.ccode
                      663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode 690.ccode 694.ccode
                      698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode 702.ccode 703.ccode
                      704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode 712.ccode 760.ccode
                      770.ccode 771.ccode 775.ccode 780.ccode 790.ccode
                      800.ccode 811.ccode 812.ccode 816.ccode 820.ccode
                      840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. qui tab country if e(sample)

. di r(r)
106

. 
. *** Table A1 (summary stats) & Table A2 (pairwise correlations) in appendix *
> **
. qui ivreg2 theta_mean l.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_
> liquidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.year i.ccode
> , robust 
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.

. sum theta_mean imf_maxlog_liquidity_1 imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst 
> v2exl_legitideol actotal if e(sample)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
  theta_mean |      2,858   -.8069581    1.057751   -3.76739    2.16696
imf_maxlog~1 |      2,858    1.542246    1.446739          0    6.31866
imf_moving~1 |      2,858    .3000271     .277683          0          1
 e_migdppcln |      2,858     8.06656    1.197712        .06     12.305
 v2xcl_acjst |      2,858     .428078    .2305267       .002       .926
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
v2exl_legi~l |      2,858    .4208919    1.239136      -2.72      3.585
     actotal |      2,858    1.137509    2.273784          0         14

. corr theta_mean imf_maxlog_liquidity_1 imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
>  v2exl_legitideol actotal if e(sample)
(obs=2,858)

             | theta_~n imf_ma~1 imf_mo~1 e_migd~n v2xcl_~t v2exl_~l  actotal
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
  theta_mean |   1.0000
imf_maxlog~1 |  -0.0974   1.0000
imf_moving~1 |  -0.1279   0.9761   1.0000
 e_migdppcln |   0.1767  -0.2462  -0.2549   1.0000
 v2xcl_acjst |   0.5208   0.0590   0.0242   0.1167   1.0000
v2exl_legi~l |  -0.1645  -0.3390  -0.3087   0.1001  -0.2234   1.0000
     actotal |  -0.6551  -0.0660  -0.0516  -0.1244  -0.3073   0.1220   1.0000


. 
. *** Table A8 (2SLS results for autocratic sample, with first stage) ***
. xi: ivreg2 theta_mean l.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_
> liquidity_1) e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.ccode i.year,
>  robust first
i.ccode           _Iccode_40-950      (naturally coded; _Iccode_40 omitted)
i.year            _Iyear_1972-2014    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1972 omitted)
Warning: time variable year has 24 gap(s) in relevant range
Warning - collinearities detected
Vars dropped:       _Iccode_110 _Iccode_115 _Iccode_230 _Iccode_265 _Iccode_341
                    _Iccode_345 _Iccode_352 _Iccode_403 _Iccode_520 _Iccode_531
                    _Iccode_591 _Iccode_680 _Iccode_713 _Iccode_731 _Iccode_830
                    _Iccode_850 _Iccode_950 _Iyear_1973 _Iyear_2014

First-stage regressions
-----------------------


First-stage regression of imfprogram_uu:

Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity
Number of obs =                   2858
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------
                       |               Robust
         imfprogram_uu |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. 
> Interval]
-----------------------+-------------------------------------------------------
---------
imf_maxlog_liquidity_1 |  -.2901518   .0371985    -7.80   0.000    -.3630922   
> -.2172113
                       |
            theta_mean |
                   L1. |    .014937   .0143848     1.04   0.299    -.0132693   
>  .0431434
                       |
        imf_movingavg1 |   2.564627   .2002853    12.80   0.000       2.1719   
>  2.957355
           e_migdppcln |  -.0791031   .0162424    -4.87   0.000     -.110952   
> -.0472543
           v2xcl_acjst |     .52915   .0867696     6.10   0.000     .3590086   
>  .6992914
      v2exl_legitideol |  -.0188682   .0150938    -1.25   0.211    -.0484648   
>  .0107284
               actotal |  -.0105381    .004651    -2.27   0.024    -.0196579   
> -.0014183
            _Iccode_41 |   .1135781   .1155848     0.98   0.326    -.1130653   
>  .3402215
            _Iccode_70 |   .6015711   .1170251     5.14   0.000     .3721035   
>  .8310388
            _Iccode_90 |   .2815077   .1663645     1.69   0.091    -.0447066   
>  .6077221
            _Iccode_91 |   .0421221   .1911991     0.22   0.826    -.3327889   
>  .4170332
            _Iccode_92 |   .2522059   .1866168     1.35   0.177    -.1137201   
>  .6181319
            _Iccode_93 |  -.0233607   .1287228    -0.18   0.856    -.2757658   
>  .2290443
            _Iccode_95 |   .0230374   .1202377     0.19   0.848    -.2127298   
>  .2588045
           _Iccode_110 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_115 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_130 |  -.1309564   .1755245    -0.75   0.456    -.4751322   
>  .2132193
           _Iccode_135 |   .5116089   .1383667     3.70   0.000     .2402938   
>  .7829241
           _Iccode_140 |   .0138675   .1553527     0.09   0.929    -.2907545   
>  .3184895
           _Iccode_145 |   .1676099   .1864615     0.90   0.369    -.1980114   
>  .5332313
           _Iccode_150 |   .4396479   .0933274     4.71   0.000     .2566476   
>  .6226482
           _Iccode_155 |   .5255318   .1508218     3.48   0.001     .2297942   
>  .8212694
           _Iccode_160 |   .6511461   .1704051     3.82   0.000     .3170086   
>  .9852835
           _Iccode_165 |   .2428867    .121087     2.01   0.045     .0054543   
>  .4803192
           _Iccode_230 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_265 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_290 |   .2801695   .1154526     2.43   0.015     .0537853   
>  .5065538
           _Iccode_310 |   .6562519   .1456527     4.51   0.000     .3706499   
>  .9418538
           _Iccode_339 |   .4545081   .0985824     4.61   0.000     .2612037   
>  .6478125
           _Iccode_341 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_345 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_346 |   .6027702   .1621033     3.72   0.000     .2849113   
>  .9206292
           _Iccode_352 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_355 |  -.0382192   .1136978    -0.34   0.737    -.2611626   
>  .1847242
           _Iccode_360 |   .1956699   .1562241     1.25   0.210    -.1106607   
>  .5020005
           _Iccode_365 |   .1946528   .1050449     1.85   0.064    -.0113236   
>  .4006293
           _Iccode_370 |   .1543291   .1106993     1.39   0.163    -.0627346   
>  .3713928
           _Iccode_372 |   .4271217   .1294286     3.30   0.001     .1733327   
>  .6809107
           _Iccode_373 |   .5581516   .1170338     4.77   0.000     .3286669   
>  .7876364
           _Iccode_402 |   .0335715   .0978896     0.34   0.732    -.1583744   
>  .2255175
           _Iccode_403 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_404 |   .4520436    .122271     3.70   0.000     .2122895   
>  .6917977
           _Iccode_411 |   .5063725   .1063119     4.76   0.000     .2979117   
>  .7148333
           _Iccode_420 |   .2753031   .1150629     2.39   0.017      .049683   
>  .5009232
           _Iccode_432 |   .0836356    .133881     0.62   0.532    -.1788838   
>  .3461549
           _Iccode_433 |   .3133264   .1013811     3.09   0.002     .1145341   
>  .5121187
           _Iccode_434 |   .3193365   .1060096     3.01   0.003     .1114686   
>  .5272045
           _Iccode_435 |   .3642466   .1037383     3.51   0.000     .1608323   
>  .5676608
           _Iccode_436 |    .392214   .1100569     3.56   0.000     .1764099   
>   .608018
           _Iccode_437 |   .5123364   .1036767     4.94   0.000     .3090429   
>    .71563
           _Iccode_438 |   .6278703    .102075     6.15   0.000     .4277174   
>  .8280232
           _Iccode_439 |   .4752184   .1025555     4.63   0.000     .2741233   
>  .6763135
           _Iccode_450 |  -.3030793   .1101666    -2.75   0.006    -.5190986   
>   -.08706
           _Iccode_451 |   .3975947   .1277322     3.11   0.002      .147132   
>  .6480573
           _Iccode_452 |   .5250818   .1186009     4.43   0.000     .2925241   
>  .7576394
           _Iccode_461 |   .2769231   .1154235     2.40   0.016      .050596   
>  .5032503
           _Iccode_471 |   .4927833   .1052905     4.68   0.000     .2863254   
>  .6992412
           _Iccode_475 |   .3363894   .1328568     2.53   0.011     .0758782   
>  .5969006
           _Iccode_481 |   .4306467   .1107278     3.89   0.000      .213527   
>  .6477665
           _Iccode_482 |   .4874634   .1182301     4.12   0.000      .255633   
>  .7192938
           _Iccode_483 |   .5887948   .1090189     5.40   0.000      .375026   
>  .8025636
           _Iccode_484 |   .5259997   .1195441     4.40   0.000     .2915926   
>  .7604068
           _Iccode_490 |   .3694558   .1187736     3.11   0.002     .1365597   
>  .6023519
           _Iccode_500 |   .0730826   .1014873     0.72   0.472    -.1259179   
>   .272083
           _Iccode_501 |   .4280038   .1120512     3.82   0.000     .2082891   
>  .6477184
           _Iccode_510 |   .3283848   .1045915     3.14   0.002     .1232974   
>  .5334721
           _Iccode_516 |   .0274231    .121633     0.23   0.822    -.2110799   
>  .2659261
           _Iccode_517 |   .1974954   .1194722     1.65   0.098    -.0367706   
>  .4317614
           _Iccode_520 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_522 |   .3743478   .1143997     3.27   0.001     .1500281   
>  .5986675
           _Iccode_530 |   .4360288   .1024816     4.25   0.000     .2350787   
>  .6369789
           _Iccode_531 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_540 |   .4817705   .1018048     4.73   0.000     .2821474   
>  .6813936
           _Iccode_541 |   .1325694   .1055268     1.26   0.209    -.0743519   
>  .3394908
           _Iccode_551 |   .1608819   .1128754     1.43   0.154    -.0604489   
>  .3822127
           _Iccode_552 |   .0861498   .1092583     0.79   0.430    -.1280885   
>   .300388
           _Iccode_553 |   .4911168   .1106597     4.44   0.000     .2741306   
>  .7081029
           _Iccode_560 |    .235504   .1090307     2.16   0.031      .021712   
>  .4492959
           _Iccode_565 |   .0679522   .0989311     0.69   0.492    -.1260361   
>  .2619404
           _Iccode_570 |   .2845799   .1147225     2.48   0.013     .0596272   
>  .5095325
           _Iccode_571 |   .0544517   .1002297     0.54   0.587    -.1420829   
>  .2509862
           _Iccode_572 |   .2828508    .098267     2.88   0.004     .0901648   
>  .4755367
           _Iccode_580 |   .3970224   .1215042     3.27   0.001     .1587719   
>   .635273
           _Iccode_581 |   .0957378   .0955786     1.00   0.317    -.0916767   
>  .2831522
           _Iccode_591 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_600 |  -.0394472   .1100896    -0.36   0.720    -.2553155   
>   .176421
           _Iccode_615 |   .4173088   .1129468     3.69   0.000      .195838   
>  .6387796
           _Iccode_616 |   .1145719    .108515     1.06   0.291    -.0982088   
>  .3273526
           _Iccode_620 |   .5483898   .0959737     5.71   0.000     .3602005   
>   .736579
           _Iccode_625 |   .2238865   .0934138     2.40   0.017     .0407169   
>  .4070561
           _Iccode_630 |   .4936599    .089911     5.49   0.000     .3173586   
>  .6699612
           _Iccode_640 |   .8077928    .091797     8.80   0.000     .6277933   
>  .9877922
           _Iccode_645 |   .7591855   .1018128     7.46   0.000     .5595469   
>  .9588242
           _Iccode_651 |   .1826408      .1077     1.70   0.090    -.0285418   
>  .3938234
           _Iccode_652 |   .5033997     .09243     5.45   0.000     .3221591   
>  .6846403
           _Iccode_660 |   .3477393   .0867082     4.01   0.000     .1777183   
>  .5177603
           _Iccode_663 |   .4062126   .1102802     3.68   0.000     .1899707   
>  .6224545
           _Iccode_670 |   .5745428   .0985264     5.83   0.000     .3813481   
>  .7677374
           _Iccode_679 |    .512811   .1287623     3.98   0.000     .2603286   
>  .7652934
           _Iccode_680 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_690 |   .2677627   .1032633     2.59   0.010     .0652797   
>  .4702458
           _Iccode_694 |   .3864277   .1066071     3.62   0.000     .1773881   
>  .5954674
           _Iccode_698 |   .2185569   .0994925     2.20   0.028      .023468   
>  .4136458
           _Iccode_700 |   .3459845    .116143     2.98   0.003     .1182465   
>  .5737225
           _Iccode_701 |   .5462712   .1022778     5.34   0.000     .3457207   
>  .7468218
           _Iccode_702 |    .575492   .1178227     4.88   0.000     .3444603   
>  .8065237
           _Iccode_703 |   .2943569   .0975536     3.02   0.003     .1030697   
>  .4856441
           _Iccode_704 |    .341797   .1062221     3.22   0.001     .1335123   
>  .5500818
           _Iccode_705 |   .0661766   .1164635     0.57   0.570    -.1621898   
>   .294543
           _Iccode_710 |   .3133809   .0975635     3.21   0.001     .1220742   
>  .5046875
           _Iccode_712 |  -.0814115   .1118654    -0.73   0.467    -.3007619   
>  .1379388
           _Iccode_713 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_731 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_732 |  -.0523898   .1315265    -0.40   0.690    -.3102925   
>  .2055128
           _Iccode_760 |  -.2821713   .1464792    -1.93   0.054    -.5693937   
>  .0050511
           _Iccode_770 |   .1794057   .1274189     1.41   0.159    -.0704426   
>  .4292541
           _Iccode_771 |   .3218983   .1544754     2.08   0.037     .0189965   
>  .6248002
           _Iccode_775 |   .1205464   .0950856     1.27   0.205    -.0659013   
>   .306994
           _Iccode_780 |   .1601218    .135564     1.18   0.238    -.1056978   
>  .4259413
           _Iccode_790 |   .5481686   .1289651     4.25   0.000     .2952885   
>  .8010486
           _Iccode_800 |    .360519   .1311272     2.75   0.006     .1033994   
>  .6176386
           _Iccode_811 |    .444591   .1008767     4.41   0.000     .2467879   
>  .6423942
           _Iccode_812 |   .5026789   .1101805     4.56   0.000     .2866324   
>  .7187253
           _Iccode_816 |   .4432226   .1045399     4.24   0.000     .2382364   
>  .6482088
           _Iccode_820 |   .2873357   .0956198     3.00   0.003     .0998405   
>  .4748309
           _Iccode_830 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_840 |   .3067953   .1197767     2.56   0.010     .0719322   
>  .5416584
           _Iccode_850 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_950 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_1973 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_1974 |  -.0247169    .067714    -0.37   0.715    -.1574932   
>  .1080594
           _Iyear_1975 |    .005934   .0663383     0.09   0.929    -.1241449   
>  .1360129
           _Iyear_1976 |   .0497883   .0690117     0.72   0.471    -.0855327   
>  .1851093
           _Iyear_1977 |   .0830488   .0716224     1.16   0.246    -.0573914   
>  .2234889
           _Iyear_1978 |  -.0111293   .0692885    -0.16   0.872     -.146993   
>  .1247344
           _Iyear_1979 |   .1031641   .0693299     1.49   0.137    -.0327808   
>  .2391091
           _Iyear_1980 |   .1832654   .0689733     2.66   0.008     .0480197   
>  .3185111
           _Iyear_1981 |   .2178956   .0703974     3.10   0.002     .0798574   
>  .3559338
           _Iyear_1982 |   .1964736   .0718055     2.74   0.006     .0556744   
>  .3372728
           _Iyear_1983 |   .1852884   .0699721     2.65   0.008     .0480842   
>  .3224926
           _Iyear_1984 |   .0711754   .0682275     1.04   0.297    -.0626078   
>  .2049587
           _Iyear_1985 |   .0972157   .0668847     1.45   0.146    -.0339347   
>  .2283661
           _Iyear_1986 |   .1574078   .0685365     2.30   0.022     .0230186   
>   .291797
           _Iyear_1987 |    .176109   .0713876     2.47   0.014     .0361293   
>  .3160888
           _Iyear_1988 |    .215243   .0694408     3.10   0.002     .0790806   
>  .3514055
           _Iyear_1989 |   .2439937   .0692911     3.52   0.000     .1081247   
>  .3798626
           _Iyear_1990 |    .211493   .0693368     3.05   0.002     .0755346   
>  .3474515
           _Iyear_1991 |     .15659   .0732956     2.14   0.033      .012869   
>  .3003111
           _Iyear_1992 |   .1237314   .0764171     1.62   0.106    -.0261105   
>  .2735733
           _Iyear_1993 |   .0636774   .0726722     0.88   0.381    -.0788213   
>  .2061761
           _Iyear_1994 |    .145434   .0730694     1.99   0.047     .0021566   
>  .2887114
           _Iyear_1995 |   .2058958   .0729603     2.82   0.005     .0628324   
>  .3489593
           _Iyear_1996 |    .222593   .0689732     3.23   0.001     .0873475   
>  .3578386
           _Iyear_1997 |   .1563251   .0694943     2.25   0.025     .0200578   
>  .2925923
           _Iyear_1998 |   .1432171   .0694282     2.06   0.039     .0070795   
>  .2793547
           _Iyear_1999 |   .0204349   .0702037     0.29   0.771    -.1172235   
>  .1580933
           _Iyear_2000 |  -.0360214   .0722838    -0.50   0.618    -.1777584   
>  .1057156
           _Iyear_2001 |   .1204158   .0682103     1.77   0.078    -.0133337   
>  .2541654
           _Iyear_2002 |   .1123011   .0670958     1.67   0.094     -.019263   
>  .2438653
           _Iyear_2003 |   .0594978   .0678621     0.88   0.381     -.073569   
>  .1925645
           _Iyear_2004 |   .0213423   .0678985     0.31   0.753    -.1117959   
>  .1544806
           _Iyear_2005 |   -.047623   .0713883    -0.67   0.505    -.1876041   
>  .0923582
           _Iyear_2006 |    -.01681    .074357    -0.23   0.821    -.1626123   
>  .1289923
           _Iyear_2007 |    .074303   .0726896     1.02   0.307    -.0682298   
>  .2168358
           _Iyear_2008 |   .1225957   .0738841     1.66   0.097    -.0222793   
>  .2674706
           _Iyear_2009 |    .278817   .0744828     3.74   0.000     .1327681   
>   .424866
           _Iyear_2010 |   .1713455   .0727235     2.36   0.019     .0287462   
>  .3139447
           _Iyear_2011 |   .1049187   .0773873     1.36   0.175    -.0468254   
>  .2566629
           _Iyear_2012 |   .1369211   .0767896     1.78   0.075    -.0136512   
>  .2874934
           _Iyear_2013 |   .0083798   .0761501     0.11   0.912    -.1409385   
>  .1576981
           _Iyear_2014 |          0  (omitted)
                 _cons |    .065372   .1815479     0.36   0.719    -.2906147   
>  .4213586
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------
F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  2705) =    60.84
  Prob > F      =   0.0000
Sanderson-Windmeijer multivariate F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  2705) =    60.84
  Prob > F      =   0.0000



Summary results for first-stage regressions
-------------------------------------------

                                           (Underid)            (Weak id)
Variable     | F(  1,  2705)  P-val | SW Chi-sq(  1) P-val | SW F(  1,  2705)
imfprogram_u |      60.84    0.0000 |       64.28   0.0000 |       60.84

NB: first-stage test statistics heteroskedasticity-robust

Stock-Yogo weak ID F test critical values for single endogenous regressor:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for i.i.d. errors only.

Underidentification test
Ho: matrix of reduced form coefficients has rank=K1-1 (underidentified)
Ha: matrix has rank=K1 (identified)
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic          Chi-sq(1)=65.27    P-val=0.0000

Weak identification test
Ho: equation is weakly identified
Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic                                      56.65
Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F statistic                                60.84

Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values for K1=1 and L1=1:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.

Weak-instrument-robust inference
Tests of joint significance of endogenous regressors B1 in main equation
Ho: B1=0 and orthogonality conditions are valid
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           F(1,2705)=      4.61     P-val=0.0319
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           Chi-sq(1)=      4.87     P-val=0.0273
Stock-Wright LM S statistic        Chi-sq(1)=         .     P-val=     .

NB: Underidentification, weak identification and weak-identification-robust
    test statistics heteroskedasticity-robust

Number of observations               N  =       2858
Number of regressors                 K  =        153
Number of endogenous regressors      K1 =          1
Number of instruments                L  =        153
Number of excluded instruments       L1 =          1

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2858
                                                      F(152,  2705) =  1255.21
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =   3196.52061                Centered R2   =   0.9639
Total (uncentered) SS   =  5057.597112                Uncentered R2 =   0.9772
Residual SS             =  115.5084868                Root MSE      =     .201

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |  -.1568399   .0747599    -2.10   0.036    -.3033665   -.0103
> 132
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8640132   .0154916    55.77   0.000     .8336502    .8943
> 763
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0310538   .0835046     0.37   0.710    -.1326122    .1947
> 197
     e_migdppcln |   .0037266   .0186942     0.20   0.842    -.0329134    .0403
> 666
     v2xcl_acjst |     .37411   .0990421     3.78   0.000     .1799911    .5682
> 289
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0197323   .0096977    -2.03   0.042    -.0387395   -.0007
> 251
         actotal |  -.0369422   .0045078    -8.20   0.000    -.0457774    -.028
> 107
      _Iccode_41 |   .0839945   .0686659     1.22   0.221    -.0505882    .2185
> 773
      _Iccode_70 |  -.0409177   .0576187    -0.71   0.478    -.1538483    .0720
> 129
      _Iccode_90 |   .0621078   .0614941     1.01   0.313    -.0584184     .182
> 634
      _Iccode_91 |  -.0068323   .0878122    -0.08   0.938    -.1789411    .1652
> 765
      _Iccode_92 |   -.066518   .0787364    -0.84   0.398    -.2208385    .0878
> 025
      _Iccode_93 |  -.0589286   .0398214    -1.48   0.139    -.1369771    .0191
> 198
      _Iccode_95 |   .0425985   .0660067     0.65   0.519    -.0867722    .1719
> 691
     _Iccode_110 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_115 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_130 |   .0185389    .049135     0.38   0.706     -.077764    .1148
> 418
     _Iccode_135 |   .0905169   .0731646     1.24   0.216    -.0528831    .2339
> 169
     _Iccode_140 |  -.0148989   .0464242    -0.32   0.748    -.1058886    .0760
> 908
     _Iccode_145 |  -.0149149   .0542793    -0.27   0.783    -.1213004    .0914
> 707
     _Iccode_150 |   .0233412   .0527656     0.44   0.658    -.0800775    .1267
> 599
     _Iccode_155 |   .0743927   .0661401     1.12   0.261    -.0552396     .204
> 025
     _Iccode_160 |  -.1205607   .2184919    -0.55   0.581     -.548797    .3076
> 756
     _Iccode_165 |   .0151842   .0715742     0.21   0.832    -.1250988    .1554
> 671
     _Iccode_230 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_265 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_290 |   .1195308   .0784171     1.52   0.127     -.034164    .2732
> 255
     _Iccode_310 |   .2768424   .0817097     3.39   0.001     .1166942    .4369
> 905
     _Iccode_339 |   .1031714   .0550115     1.88   0.061    -.0046491    .2109
> 919
     _Iccode_341 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_345 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_346 |   .2365926   .1620556     1.46   0.144    -.0810305    .5542
> 158
     _Iccode_352 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_355 |   .2914855   .0922915     3.16   0.002     .1105974    .4723
> 735
     _Iccode_360 |   .0455171   .0592962     0.77   0.443    -.0707014    .1617
> 355
     _Iccode_365 |  -.1322887   .0501943    -2.64   0.008    -.2306677   -.0339
> 097
     _Iccode_370 |  -.0915733   .0493923    -1.85   0.064    -.1883804    .0052
> 338
     _Iccode_372 |  -.0067212   .0578232    -0.12   0.907    -.1200526    .1066
> 102
     _Iccode_373 |   .2230236   .0673085     3.31   0.001     .0911013    .3549
> 459
     _Iccode_402 |   .0970602   .0564843     1.72   0.086     -.013647    .2077
> 673
     _Iccode_403 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_404 |   .1379909   .0685902     2.01   0.044     .0035566    .2724
> 252
     _Iccode_411 |   .1443424   .0743265     1.94   0.052    -.0013349    .2900
> 197
     _Iccode_420 |     .05298    .056243     0.94   0.346    -.0572543    .1632
> 143
     _Iccode_432 |  -.0744855   .0692189    -1.08   0.282    -.2101521    .0611
> 811
     _Iccode_433 |  -.0337542   .0592431    -0.57   0.569    -.1498686    .0823
> 603
     _Iccode_434 |   .1052016   .1218337     0.86   0.388     -.133588    .3439
> 913
     _Iccode_435 |   .0532336   .0585919     0.91   0.364    -.0616044    .1680
> 716
     _Iccode_436 |   .0147633   .0634789     0.23   0.816    -.1096531    .1391
> 797
     _Iccode_437 |   .0388443   .0616085     0.63   0.528    -.0819062    .1595
> 948
     _Iccode_438 |   .1316253   .0743283     1.77   0.077    -.0140555    .2773
> 062
     _Iccode_439 |   .0068331   .0617003     0.11   0.912    -.1140973    .1277
> 634
     _Iccode_450 |  -.0055669   .0971626    -0.06   0.954    -.1960022    .1848
> 683
     _Iccode_451 |   .0968894   .0874298     1.11   0.268    -.0744699    .2682
> 487
     _Iccode_452 |   .1607648   .0847129     1.90   0.058    -.0052694     .326
> 799
     _Iccode_461 |   .0502426   .0582421     0.86   0.388    -.0639099    .1643
> 951
     _Iccode_471 |  -.0352487    .053984    -0.65   0.514    -.1410553    .0705
> 579
     _Iccode_475 |  -.1548232   .0582481    -2.66   0.008    -.2689874    -.040
> 659
     _Iccode_481 |   .0994603   .0517159     1.92   0.054    -.0019011    .2008
> 216
     _Iccode_482 |   .0610252   .0620876     0.98   0.326    -.0606643    .1827
> 147
     _Iccode_483 |   .0726684   .0642017     1.13   0.258    -.0531647    .1985
> 014
     _Iccode_484 |   .1493255   .0703708     2.12   0.034     .0114013    .2872
> 497
     _Iccode_490 |  -.0192079   .0660783    -0.29   0.771    -.1487191    .1103
> 032
     _Iccode_500 |  -.0895024     .05396    -1.66   0.097     -.195262    .0162
> 572
     _Iccode_501 |   .0691546    .056476     1.22   0.221    -.0415363    .1798
> 456
     _Iccode_510 |    .015667   .0520694     0.30   0.764    -.0863871    .1177
> 211
     _Iccode_516 |  -.0511659   .1022476    -0.50   0.617    -.2515675    .1492
> 356
     _Iccode_517 |  -.0241141   .0810931    -0.30   0.766    -.1830537    .1348
> 255
     _Iccode_520 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_522 |    .065722   .0538109     1.22   0.222    -.0397455    .1711
> 895
     _Iccode_530 |    .015295   .0592555     0.26   0.796    -.1008436    .1314
> 335
     _Iccode_531 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_540 |   .0498168   .0517589     0.96   0.336    -.0516287    .1512
> 623
     _Iccode_541 |   .0348959   .0553452     0.63   0.528    -.0735787    .1433
> 706
     _Iccode_551 |   .0104605   .0467305     0.22   0.823    -.0811297    .1020
> 506
     _Iccode_552 |  -.0395447   .0484813    -0.82   0.415    -.1345664     .055
> 477
     _Iccode_553 |   .0596098   .0697183     0.86   0.393    -.0770355    .1962
> 551
     _Iccode_560 |  -.1343558   .0430672    -3.12   0.002     -.218766   -.0499
> 455
     _Iccode_565 |  -.0495334    .068497    -0.72   0.470     -.183785    .0847
> 183
     _Iccode_570 |    .017936   .0561629     0.32   0.749    -.0921413    .1280
> 133
     _Iccode_571 |   .0543377   .0548349     0.99   0.322    -.0531367    .1618
> 121
     _Iccode_572 |   .0630345   .0502863     1.25   0.210    -.0355249    .1615
> 939
     _Iccode_580 |   .0997126   .0597908     1.67   0.095    -.0174752    .2169
> 004
     _Iccode_581 |   .0698779   .0544147     1.28   0.199     -.036773    .1765
> 288
     _Iccode_591 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_600 |  -.0767282   .0442577    -1.73   0.083    -.1634718    .0100
> 153
     _Iccode_615 |  -.0422155   .0549935    -0.77   0.443    -.1500009    .0655
> 698
     _Iccode_616 |  -.1471024   .0483015    -3.05   0.002    -.2417715   -.0524
> 333
     _Iccode_620 |  -.0568438   .0635647    -0.89   0.371    -.1814283    .0677
> 407
     _Iccode_625 |  -.0063165   .0430339    -0.15   0.883    -.0906614    .0780
> 284
     _Iccode_630 |  -.0278435   .0519981    -0.54   0.592    -.1297579     .074
> 071
     _Iccode_640 |   .1090378   .0732963     1.49   0.137    -.0346203    .2526
> 959
     _Iccode_645 |    .122229   .0644819     1.90   0.058    -.0041532    .2486
> 112
     _Iccode_651 |  -.1552992   .0430157    -3.61   0.000    -.2396085   -.0709
> 899
     _Iccode_652 |  -.0332207   .0615137    -0.54   0.589    -.1537853    .0873
> 439
     _Iccode_660 |   .0047684   .0454863     0.10   0.917     -.084383    .0939
> 199
     _Iccode_663 |  -.0299888   .0516384    -0.58   0.561    -.1311982    .0712
> 206
     _Iccode_670 |   .0628869   .0586977     1.07   0.284    -.0521585    .1779
> 323
     _Iccode_679 |  -.0188468   .0579344    -0.33   0.745    -.1323961    .0947
> 026
     _Iccode_680 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_690 |  -.0526796   .0789069    -0.67   0.504    -.2073343     .101
> 975
     _Iccode_694 |   .1443071   .0683853     2.11   0.035     .0102744    .2783
> 398
     _Iccode_698 |   .0647704   .0571582     1.13   0.257    -.0472576    .1767
> 984
     _Iccode_700 |  -.0440809   .0694504    -0.63   0.526    -.1802012    .0920
> 393
     _Iccode_701 |   .1277362   .0648801     1.97   0.049     .0005736    .2548
> 988
     _Iccode_702 |   .1759142   .0594773     2.96   0.003     .0593408    .2924
> 876
     _Iccode_703 |   .0226721   .0548612     0.41   0.679    -.0848539    .1301
> 981
     _Iccode_704 |    .008095   .0522727     0.15   0.877    -.0943577    .1105
> 476
     _Iccode_705 |  -.1365715   .0472647    -2.89   0.004    -.2292085   -.0439
> 345
     _Iccode_710 |  -.0522674   .0468821    -1.11   0.265    -.1441547    .0396
> 198
     _Iccode_712 |   .1797698   .1048536     1.71   0.086    -.0257396    .3852
> 791
     _Iccode_713 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_731 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_732 |  -.0597676   .0414136    -1.44   0.149    -.1409367    .0214
> 015
     _Iccode_760 |   .1274292   .1132975     1.12   0.261    -.0946298    .3494
> 882
     _Iccode_770 |   .0200521   .0459709     0.44   0.663    -.0700491    .1101
> 534
     _Iccode_771 |   .0288212   .0521492     0.55   0.580    -.0733893    .1310
> 317
     _Iccode_775 |   .0306666   .0449813     0.68   0.495    -.0574951    .1188
> 283
     _Iccode_780 |   -.052882   .0883713    -0.60   0.550    -.2260865    .1203
> 226
     _Iccode_790 |   .0239359   .0645982     0.37   0.711    -.1026743    .1505
> 461
     _Iccode_800 |  -.0821082   .0530112    -1.55   0.121    -.1860083    .0217
> 919
     _Iccode_811 |   .0945294   .0600896     1.57   0.116    -.0232441    .2123
> 028
     _Iccode_812 |   .2124178   .0684041     3.11   0.002     .0783483    .3464
> 873
     _Iccode_816 |   .1463565    .053485     2.74   0.006     .0415278    .2511
> 853
     _Iccode_820 |   .0016063    .046548     0.03   0.972    -.0896261    .0928
> 387
     _Iccode_830 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_840 |   .2059629   .0619744     3.32   0.001     .0844952    .3274
> 305
     _Iccode_850 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_950 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iyear_1973 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iyear_1974 |   .0101495   .0403334     0.25   0.801    -.0689024    .0892
> 015
     _Iyear_1975 |  -.0158472   .0307723    -0.51   0.607    -.0761597    .0444
> 653
     _Iyear_1976 |  -.0333548   .0365214    -0.91   0.361    -.1049355    .0382
> 259
     _Iyear_1977 |   -.017729   .0365562    -0.48   0.628    -.0893779    .0539
> 199
     _Iyear_1978 |  -.0197841   .0390627    -0.51   0.613    -.0963456    .0567
> 775
     _Iyear_1979 |   .0136575   .0355247     0.38   0.701    -.0559696    .0832
> 846
     _Iyear_1980 |   .0593187   .0458432     1.29   0.196    -.0305324    .1491
> 697
     _Iyear_1981 |   .0218246   .0395529     0.55   0.581    -.0556977    .0993
> 468
     _Iyear_1982 |   .0255799   .0365331     0.70   0.484    -.0460236    .0971
> 834
     _Iyear_1983 |   .0123695   .0413568     0.30   0.765    -.0686882    .0934
> 273
     _Iyear_1984 |    .019014   .0342169     0.56   0.578    -.0480499    .0860
> 779
     _Iyear_1985 |   .0309734    .032829     0.94   0.345    -.0333703     .095
> 317
     _Iyear_1986 |   .0692143   .0359458     1.93   0.054    -.0012381    .1396
> 667
     _Iyear_1987 |   .0648761   .0374564     1.73   0.083    -.0085372    .1382
> 894
     _Iyear_1988 |   .0406826   .0427953     0.95   0.342    -.0431947    .1245
> 598
     _Iyear_1989 |   .0390429   .0441651     0.88   0.377    -.0475191     .125
> 605
     _Iyear_1990 |  -.0590509   .0627323    -0.94   0.347     -.182004    .0639
> 022
     _Iyear_1991 |  -.0155353   .0430319    -0.36   0.718    -.0998762    .0688
> 056
     _Iyear_1992 |   .0335939   .0393978     0.85   0.394    -.0436245    .1108
> 122
     _Iyear_1993 |   .0091528   .0377365     0.24   0.808    -.0648093    .0831
> 149
     _Iyear_1994 |    -.00888   .0378909    -0.23   0.815    -.0831448    .0653
> 848
     _Iyear_1995 |   .0683273   .0446944     1.53   0.126    -.0192722    .1559
> 267
     _Iyear_1996 |   .0762384   .0406568     1.88   0.061    -.0034474    .1559
> 241
     _Iyear_1997 |   .0116692   .0351939     0.33   0.740    -.0573097     .080
> 648
     _Iyear_1998 |   .0146861   .0365879     0.40   0.688    -.0570249    .0863
> 972
     _Iyear_1999 |   .0361587   .0329422     1.10   0.272    -.0284068    .1007
> 242
     _Iyear_2000 |   .0255012   .0313693     0.81   0.416    -.0359815    .0869
> 839
     _Iyear_2001 |   .0450477   .0324663     1.39   0.165    -.0185851    .1086
> 805
     _Iyear_2002 |   .0547688   .0358904     1.53   0.127    -.0155751    .1251
> 126
     _Iyear_2003 |   .0279987    .031175     0.90   0.369    -.0331031    .0891
> 005
     _Iyear_2004 |   .0656835   .0456246     1.44   0.150    -.0237389     .155
> 106
     _Iyear_2005 |  -.0027127   .0306368    -0.09   0.929    -.0627597    .0573
> 342
     _Iyear_2006 |   .0108283   .0304719     0.36   0.722    -.0488956    .0705
> 522
     _Iyear_2007 |   .0050993   .0313851     0.16   0.871    -.0564143    .0666
> 129
     _Iyear_2008 |   .0412637   .0310801     1.33   0.184    -.0196521    .1021
> 796
     _Iyear_2009 |   .0497961   .0320379     1.55   0.120    -.0129969    .1125
> 892
     _Iyear_2010 |   .0290122   .0311283     0.93   0.351    -.0319982    .0900
> 225
     _Iyear_2011 |  -.0378718   .0339383    -1.12   0.264    -.1043896    .0286
> 459
     _Iyear_2012 |   .0202052   .0263247     0.77   0.443    -.0313903    .0718
> 007
     _Iyear_2013 |   .0069987   .0307591     0.23   0.820    -.0532881    .0672
> 854
     _Iyear_2014 |          0  (omitted)
           _cons |  -.2386473     .17513    -1.36   0.173    -.5818958    .1046
> 013
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             65.272
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               56.651
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         60.841
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal _Iccode_41 _Iccode_70 _Iccode_90
                      _Iccode_91 _Iccode_92 _Iccode_93 _Iccode_95 _Iccode_130
                      _Iccode_135 _Iccode_140 _Iccode_145 _Iccode_150
                      _Iccode_155 _Iccode_160 _Iccode_165 _Iccode_290
                      _Iccode_310 _Iccode_339 _Iccode_346 _Iccode_355
                      _Iccode_360 _Iccode_365 _Iccode_370 _Iccode_372
                      _Iccode_373 _Iccode_402 _Iccode_404 _Iccode_411
                      _Iccode_420 _Iccode_432 _Iccode_433 _Iccode_434
                      _Iccode_435 _Iccode_436 _Iccode_437 _Iccode_438
                      _Iccode_439 _Iccode_450 _Iccode_451 _Iccode_452
                      _Iccode_461 _Iccode_471 _Iccode_475 _Iccode_481
                      _Iccode_482 _Iccode_483 _Iccode_484 _Iccode_490
                      _Iccode_500 _Iccode_501 _Iccode_510 _Iccode_516
                      _Iccode_517 _Iccode_522 _Iccode_530 _Iccode_540
                      _Iccode_541 _Iccode_551 _Iccode_552 _Iccode_553
                      _Iccode_560 _Iccode_565 _Iccode_570 _Iccode_571
                      _Iccode_572 _Iccode_580 _Iccode_581 _Iccode_600
                      _Iccode_615 _Iccode_616 _Iccode_620 _Iccode_625
                      _Iccode_630 _Iccode_640 _Iccode_645 _Iccode_651
                      _Iccode_652 _Iccode_660 _Iccode_663 _Iccode_670
                      _Iccode_679 _Iccode_690 _Iccode_694 _Iccode_698
                      _Iccode_700 _Iccode_701 _Iccode_702 _Iccode_703
                      _Iccode_704 _Iccode_705 _Iccode_710 _Iccode_712
                      _Iccode_732 _Iccode_760 _Iccode_770 _Iccode_771
                      _Iccode_775 _Iccode_780 _Iccode_790 _Iccode_800
                      _Iccode_811 _Iccode_812 _Iccode_816 _Iccode_820
                      _Iccode_840 _Iyear_1974 _Iyear_1975 _Iyear_1976
                      _Iyear_1977 _Iyear_1978 _Iyear_1979 _Iyear_1980
                      _Iyear_1981 _Iyear_1982 _Iyear_1983 _Iyear_1984
                      _Iyear_1985 _Iyear_1986 _Iyear_1987 _Iyear_1988
                      _Iyear_1989 _Iyear_1990 _Iyear_1991 _Iyear_1992
                      _Iyear_1993 _Iyear_1994 _Iyear_1995 _Iyear_1996
                      _Iyear_1997 _Iyear_1998 _Iyear_1999 _Iyear_2000
                      _Iyear_2001 _Iyear_2002 _Iyear_2003 _Iyear_2004
                      _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008
                      _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012
                      _Iyear_2013
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
Dropped collinear:    _Iccode_110 _Iccode_115 _Iccode_230 _Iccode_265
                      _Iccode_341 _Iccode_345 _Iccode_352 _Iccode_403
                      _Iccode_520 _Iccode_531 _Iccode_591 _Iccode_680
                      _Iccode_713 _Iccode_731 _Iccode_830 _Iccode_850
                      _Iccode_950 _Iyear_1973 _Iyear_2014
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. xi: ivreg2 theta_mean l.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_
> liquidity_1) e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal debt_crisis ung
> aidealpoint2 i.ccode i.year, robust first
i.ccode           _Iccode_40-950      (naturally coded; _Iccode_40 omitted)
i.year            _Iyear_1972-2014    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1972 omitted)
Warning: time variable year has 37 gap(s) in relevant range
Warning - collinearities detected
Vars dropped:       _Iccode_110 _Iccode_115 _Iccode_230 _Iccode_265 _Iccode_341
                    _Iccode_345 _Iccode_352 _Iccode_403 _Iccode_520 _Iccode_531
                    _Iccode_591 _Iccode_680 _Iccode_713 _Iccode_731 _Iccode_732
                    _Iccode_830 _Iccode_850 _Iccode_950 _Iyear_1973 _Iyear_2014

First-stage regressions
-----------------------


First-stage regression of imfprogram_uu:

Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity
Number of obs =                   2680
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------
                       |               Robust
         imfprogram_uu |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. 
> Interval]
-----------------------+-------------------------------------------------------
---------
imf_maxlog_liquidity_1 |  -.2978971   .0386263    -7.71   0.000    -.3736396   
> -.2221546
                       |
            theta_mean |
                   L1. |   .0124942   .0150974     0.83   0.408    -.0171103   
>  .0420986
                       |
        imf_movingavg1 |   2.568195   .2063219    12.45   0.000     2.163618   
>  2.972773
           e_migdppcln |  -.0839899   .0172524    -4.87   0.000    -.1178202   
> -.0501596
           v2xcl_acjst |   .5146765   .0964646     5.34   0.000     .3255186   
>  .7038343
      v2exl_legitideol |  -.0234763   .0163635    -1.43   0.152    -.0555635   
>   .008611
               actotal |  -.0122215   .0051404    -2.38   0.018    -.0223012   
> -.0021417
           debt_crisis |   .2468033   .0638758     3.86   0.000     .1215491   
>  .3720575
       ungaidealpoint2 |   .0955935   .0246632     3.88   0.000     .0472313   
>  .1439557
            _Iccode_41 |   .0137227   .1190108     0.12   0.908     -.219646   
>  .2470913
            _Iccode_70 |   .5557338   .1204417     4.61   0.000     .3195592   
>  .7919084
            _Iccode_90 |   .1665129   .1744647     0.95   0.340    -.1755956   
>  .5086214
            _Iccode_91 |  -.0916225    .187464    -0.49   0.625    -.4592213   
>  .2759764
            _Iccode_92 |   .1713035   .1997942     0.86   0.391    -.2204737   
>  .5630807
            _Iccode_93 |  -.0252065   .1190856    -0.21   0.832    -.2587218   
>  .2083088
            _Iccode_95 |   -.027565    .123799    -0.22   0.824    -.2703229   
>   .215193
           _Iccode_110 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_115 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_130 |  -.1983131   .1757156    -1.13   0.259    -.5428744   
>  .1462482
           _Iccode_135 |   .4270411   .1372257     3.11   0.002     .1579548   
>  .6961273
           _Iccode_140 |  -.0605659   .1479284    -0.41   0.682    -.3506391   
>  .2295074
           _Iccode_145 |   .0637287   .1849752     0.34   0.730    -.2989898   
>  .4264472
           _Iccode_150 |   .2970873   .1030307     2.88   0.004      .095054   
>  .4991205
           _Iccode_155 |   .4171552   .1519108     2.75   0.006     .1192728   
>  .7150375
           _Iccode_160 |   .6076698   .1736135     3.50   0.000     .2672305   
>  .9481091
           _Iccode_165 |   .1366569     .12672     1.08   0.281    -.1118288   
>  .3851426
           _Iccode_230 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_265 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_290 |   .3084823   .1256953     2.45   0.014      .062006   
>  .5549586
           _Iccode_310 |   .7696191    .153019     5.03   0.000     .4695637   
>  1.069675
           _Iccode_339 |   .4946003   .1120191     4.42   0.000     .2749416   
>   .714259
           _Iccode_341 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_345 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_346 |    .437897   .1673364     2.62   0.009     .1097664   
>  .7660277
           _Iccode_352 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_355 |  -.4429844   .1392142    -3.18   0.001    -.7159701   
> -.1699987
           _Iccode_360 |   .2239666   .1589087     1.41   0.159     -.087638   
>  .5355712
           _Iccode_365 |   .1877827   .1060526     1.77   0.077    -.0201763   
>  .3957417
           _Iccode_370 |   .0482091   .1134808     0.42   0.671    -.1743158   
>  .2707341
           _Iccode_372 |   .2257414   .1351481     1.67   0.095    -.0392711   
>  .4907539
           _Iccode_373 |   .4502211   .1187967     3.79   0.000     .2172722   
>  .6831701
           _Iccode_402 |   .0313967   .1018567     0.31   0.758    -.1683344   
>  .2311278
           _Iccode_403 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_404 |    .416799   .1266055     3.29   0.001     .1685377   
>  .6650602
           _Iccode_411 |   .4243698   .1134296     3.74   0.000     .2019453   
>  .6467943
           _Iccode_420 |   .2156543   .1201181     1.80   0.073    -.0198856   
>  .4511943
           _Iccode_432 |   .0557131   .1381057     0.40   0.687    -.2150988   
>  .3265251
           _Iccode_433 |   .2703649   .1034893     2.61   0.009     .0674324   
>  .4732974
           _Iccode_434 |   .3305714    .107319     3.08   0.002     .1201293   
>  .5410135
           _Iccode_435 |   .3882366   .1034134     3.75   0.000      .185453   
>  .5910202
           _Iccode_436 |    .340783    .115347     2.95   0.003     .1145986   
>  .5669673
           _Iccode_437 |   .3975855   .1084234     3.67   0.000     .1849776   
>  .6101933
           _Iccode_438 |   .5793903   .1068616     5.42   0.000     .3698449   
>  .7889356
           _Iccode_439 |   .4229642   .1066008     3.97   0.000     .2139303   
>   .631998
           _Iccode_450 |  -.3637783   .1264441    -2.88   0.004    -.6117229   
> -.1158337
           _Iccode_451 |   .3505317   .1275993     2.75   0.006     .1003218   
>  .6007416
           _Iccode_452 |   .4971594   .1221105     4.07   0.000     .2577125   
>  .7366062
           _Iccode_461 |   .2474076   .1179156     2.10   0.036     .0161866   
>  .4786287
           _Iccode_471 |    .437769   .1072083     4.08   0.000     .2275439   
>  .6479941
           _Iccode_475 |   .3140886   .1341305     2.34   0.019     .0510716   
>  .5771056
           _Iccode_481 |    .413375   .1115117     3.71   0.000     .1947113   
>  .6320388
           _Iccode_482 |   .4122694   .1220513     3.38   0.001     .1729386   
>  .6516001
           _Iccode_483 |   .5276307   .1124147     4.69   0.000     .3071963   
>  .7480651
           _Iccode_484 |   .5301544   .1218353     4.35   0.000     .2912472   
>  .7690616
           _Iccode_490 |    .319961    .122576     2.61   0.009     .0796013   
>  .5603206
           _Iccode_500 |   .0830749   .1043009     0.80   0.426    -.1214492   
>  .2875989
           _Iccode_501 |   .3864362   .1147495     3.37   0.001     .1614235   
>   .611449
           _Iccode_510 |   .2952691   .1094734     2.70   0.007     .0806024   
>  .5099359
           _Iccode_516 |   .0093341    .126553     0.07   0.941    -.2388241   
>  .2574922
           _Iccode_517 |   .1601417   .1224025     1.31   0.191    -.0798778   
>  .4001611
           _Iccode_520 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_522 |   .3301251   .1164341     2.84   0.005     .1018091   
>   .558441
           _Iccode_530 |   .4238295   .1048788     4.04   0.000     .2181724   
>  .6294867
           _Iccode_531 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_540 |   .4484351   .1067037     4.20   0.000     .2391995   
>  .6576707
           _Iccode_541 |   .1424103   .1069545     1.33   0.183    -.0673171   
>  .3521376
           _Iccode_551 |   .1659209   .1146766     1.45   0.148    -.0589489   
>  .3907907
           _Iccode_552 |    .084255   .1138451     0.74   0.459    -.1389842   
>  .3074942
           _Iccode_553 |    .355919    .115177     3.09   0.002     .1300681   
>  .5817699
           _Iccode_560 |   -.058496   .1037018    -0.56   0.573    -.2618454   
>  .1448533
           _Iccode_565 |   .0259712   .1024688     0.25   0.800    -.1749603   
>  .2269027
           _Iccode_570 |   .2149219   .1175492     1.83   0.068    -.0155807   
>  .4454245
           _Iccode_571 |  -.0146733   .1038565    -0.14   0.888    -.2183259   
>  .1889793
           _Iccode_572 |   .2069113   .1024838     2.02   0.044     .0059505   
>  .4078722
           _Iccode_580 |   .4465011   .1243296     3.59   0.000     .2027026   
>  .6902995
           _Iccode_581 |   .0479217   .0994995     0.48   0.630    -.1471872   
>  .2430307
           _Iccode_591 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_600 |  -.1164171   .1100031    -1.06   0.290    -.3321226   
>  .0992884
           _Iccode_615 |    .438407   .1153816     3.80   0.000     .2121548   
>  .6646591
           _Iccode_616 |   .0429898   .1091496     0.39   0.694     -.171042   
>  .2570217
           _Iccode_620 |   .5792053   .0999975     5.79   0.000     .3831199   
>  .7752908
           _Iccode_625 |   .2230222   .0949739     2.35   0.019     .0367876   
>  .4092567
           _Iccode_630 |   .4997497   .0924996     5.40   0.000     .3183669   
>  .6811326
           _Iccode_640 |   .7162597   .0965491     7.42   0.000     .5269362   
>  .9055833
           _Iccode_645 |   .8540716   .1057208     8.08   0.000     .6467633   
>   1.06138
           _Iccode_651 |   .1632574   .1130323     1.44   0.149     -.058388   
>  .3849029
           _Iccode_652 |   .5333985   .0964615     5.53   0.000     .3442467   
>  .7225502
           _Iccode_660 |   .3190517   .0887005     3.60   0.000     .1451185   
>  .4929849
           _Iccode_663 |   .3385592   .1128712     3.00   0.003     .1172298   
>  .5598887
           _Iccode_670 |   .5427814   .1028085     5.28   0.000     .3411838   
>  .7443789
           _Iccode_679 |   .4763946   .1320617     3.61   0.000     .2174343   
>  .7353549
           _Iccode_680 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_690 |   .2491117   .1071471     2.32   0.020     .0390066   
>  .4592167
           _Iccode_694 |   .3763995   .1103076     3.41   0.001      .160097   
>   .592702
           _Iccode_698 |   .1985393    .102565     1.94   0.053    -.0025807   
>  .3996594
           _Iccode_700 |   .2993148   .1128724     2.65   0.008     .0779829   
>  .5206468
           _Iccode_701 |   .4524758   .1102562     4.10   0.000     .2362739   
>  .6686776
           _Iccode_702 |   .5116333   .1213328     4.22   0.000     .2737115   
>  .7495552
           _Iccode_703 |   .1966084   .1015792     1.94   0.053    -.0025786   
>  .3957954
           _Iccode_704 |   .2102811   .1170749     1.80   0.073    -.0192915   
>  .4398536
           _Iccode_705 |  -.0420889    .122074    -0.34   0.730    -.2814642   
>  .1972864
           _Iccode_710 |   .2672428   .1004915     2.66   0.008     .0701886   
>  .4642969
           _Iccode_712 |  -.1513175    .128834    -1.17   0.240    -.4039486   
>  .1013135
           _Iccode_713 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_731 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_732 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_760 |  -.3441488   .1524759    -2.26   0.024    -.6431394   
> -.0451582
           _Iccode_770 |   .1501916   .1285951     1.17   0.243    -.1019711   
>  .4023543
           _Iccode_771 |    .303101   .1571398     1.93   0.054     -.005035   
>  .6112369
           _Iccode_775 |   .0923743    .098886     0.93   0.350    -.1015316   
>  .2862803
           _Iccode_780 |   .1750289      .1413     1.24   0.216    -.1020468   
>  .4521046
           _Iccode_790 |   .4878255   .1322781     3.69   0.000     .2284409   
>  .7472101
           _Iccode_800 |   .3081287   .1493125     2.06   0.039     .0153412   
>  .6009161
           _Iccode_811 |   .3947074   .1053299     3.75   0.000     .1881656   
>  .6012493
           _Iccode_812 |   .5311862   .1141581     4.65   0.000     .3073332   
>  .7550392
           _Iccode_816 |   .4957402   .1091998     4.54   0.000     .2816099   
>  .7098705
           _Iccode_820 |   .2546252   .0982238     2.59   0.010     .0620177   
>  .4472327
           _Iccode_830 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_840 |   .2649109   .1219937     2.17   0.030      .025693   
>  .5041288
           _Iccode_850 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iccode_950 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_1973 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_1974 |  -.1797207    .112454    -1.60   0.110    -.4002322   
>  .0407907
           _Iyear_1975 |  -.1538712   .1116379    -1.38   0.168    -.3727823   
>  .0650399
           _Iyear_1976 |  -.1180532   .1119267    -1.05   0.292    -.3375307   
>  .1014243
           _Iyear_1977 |  -.0779275   .1144217    -0.68   0.496    -.3022975   
>  .1464424
           _Iyear_1978 |  -.1505955   .1131694    -1.33   0.183    -.3725098   
>  .0713187
           _Iyear_1979 |  -.0374084   .1126451    -0.33   0.740    -.2582946   
>  .1834778
           _Iyear_1980 |   .0363471   .1131192     0.32   0.748    -.1854687   
>   .258163
           _Iyear_1981 |   .0756042   .1138399     0.66   0.507    -.1476249   
>  .2988333
           _Iyear_1982 |   .0450229   .1147081     0.39   0.695    -.1799085   
>  .2699544
           _Iyear_1983 |   .0190314   .1131038     0.17   0.866    -.2027542   
>   .240817
           _Iyear_1984 |  -.0625759   .1139134    -0.55   0.583    -.2859491   
>  .1607974
           _Iyear_1985 |  -.0301382   .1125799    -0.27   0.789    -.2508965   
>  .1906201
           _Iyear_1986 |   .0277042   .1133246     0.24   0.807    -.1945144   
>  .2499227
           _Iyear_1987 |   .0604335   .1155489     0.52   0.601    -.1661469   
>  .2870138
           _Iyear_1988 |   .1039837   .1142216     0.91   0.363    -.1199939   
>  .3279614
           _Iyear_1989 |   .1296652   .1137675     1.14   0.255     -.093422   
>  .3527524
           _Iyear_1990 |   .1090007   .1150798     0.95   0.344    -.1166598   
>  .3346611
           _Iyear_1991 |   .0536137   .1162427     0.46   0.645    -.1743269   
>  .2815544
           _Iyear_1992 |   .0366355   .1184364     0.31   0.757    -.1956068   
>  .2688778
           _Iyear_1993 |  -.0301647   .1155893    -0.26   0.794    -.2568242   
>  .1964947
           _Iyear_1994 |   .0476904   .1161255     0.41   0.681    -.1800205   
>  .2754013
           _Iyear_1995 |   .1215405   .1145814     1.06   0.289    -.1031427   
>  .3462236
           _Iyear_1996 |   .1404577   .1124283     1.25   0.212    -.0800032   
>  .3609187
           _Iyear_1997 |   .0709187   .1146574     0.62   0.536    -.1539134   
>  .2957508
           _Iyear_1998 |   .0576338   .1141877     0.50   0.614    -.1662773   
>  .2815448
           _Iyear_1999 |   -.038429   .1146729    -0.34   0.738    -.2632916   
>  .1864335
           _Iyear_2000 |  -.1143646    .116358    -0.98   0.326    -.3425314   
>  .1138022
           _Iyear_2001 |   .0515823   .1134215     0.45   0.649    -.1708263   
>  .2739908
           _Iyear_2002 |    .040507   .1124641     0.36   0.719    -.1800243   
>  .2610382
           _Iyear_2003 |  -.0092705   .1129511    -0.08   0.935    -.2307567   
>  .2122157
           _Iyear_2004 |   -.055677   .1129578    -0.49   0.622    -.2771764   
>  .1658224
           _Iyear_2005 |  -.1234536   .1153245    -1.07   0.285    -.3495939   
>  .1026866
           _Iyear_2006 |  -.0924701   .1165668    -0.79   0.428    -.3210464   
>  .1361062
           _Iyear_2007 |   .0031827   .1155069     0.03   0.978    -.2233153   
>  .2296807
           _Iyear_2008 |   .0551733   .1160247     0.48   0.634    -.1723399   
>  .2826866
           _Iyear_2009 |   .2052614   .1155534     1.78   0.076    -.0213276   
>  .4318505
           _Iyear_2010 |   .0915253   .1155755     0.79   0.428    -.1351072   
>  .3181578
           _Iyear_2011 |   .0285414   .1183905     0.24   0.810    -.2036109   
>  .2606937
           _Iyear_2012 |   .0546299   .1191952     0.46   0.647    -.1791003   
>  .2883601
           _Iyear_2013 |   .0287748   .1117293     0.26   0.797    -.1903156   
>  .2478653
           _Iyear_2014 |          0  (omitted)
                 _cons |   .3161453   .2115646     1.49   0.135    -.0987124   
>   .731003
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------
F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  2526) =    59.48
  Prob > F      =   0.0000
Sanderson-Windmeijer multivariate F test of excluded instruments:
  F(  1,  2526) =    59.48
  Prob > F      =   0.0000



Summary results for first-stage regressions
-------------------------------------------

                                           (Underid)            (Weak id)
Variable     | F(  1,  2526)  P-val | SW Chi-sq(  1) P-val | SW F(  1,  2526)
imfprogram_u |      59.48    0.0000 |       63.11   0.0000 |       59.48

NB: first-stage test statistics heteroskedasticity-robust

Stock-Yogo weak ID F test critical values for single endogenous regressor:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for i.i.d. errors only.

Underidentification test
Ho: matrix of reduced form coefficients has rank=K1-1 (underidentified)
Ha: matrix has rank=K1 (identified)
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic          Chi-sq(1)=62.50    P-val=0.0000

Weak identification test
Ho: equation is weakly identified
Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic                                      58.06
Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F statistic                                59.48

Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values for K1=1 and L1=1:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.

Weak-instrument-robust inference
Tests of joint significance of endogenous regressors B1 in main equation
Ho: B1=0 and orthogonality conditions are valid
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           F(1,2526)=      4.57     P-val=0.0326
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           Chi-sq(1)=      4.85     P-val=0.0276
Stock-Wright LM S statistic        Chi-sq(1)=         .     P-val=     .

NB: Underidentification, weak identification and weak-identification-robust
    test statistics heteroskedasticity-robust

Number of observations               N  =       2680
Number of regressors                 K  =        154
Number of endogenous regressors      K1 =          1
Number of instruments                L  =        154
Number of excluded instruments       L1 =          1

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2680
                                                      F(153,  2526) =  1160.82
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  2993.999363                Centered R2   =   0.9632
Total (uncentered) SS   =  4693.124651                Uncentered R2 =   0.9766
Residual SS             =  110.0522172                Root MSE      =    .2026

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |    -.15974    .076564    -2.09   0.037    -.3098026   -.0096
> 774
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8551102    .016472    51.91   0.000     .8228257    .8873
> 947
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0074286   .0856488     0.09   0.931    -.1604398    .1752
> 971
     e_migdppcln |  -.0029789   .0211625    -0.14   0.888    -.0444566    .0384
> 988
     v2xcl_acjst |   .3503898   .1120405     3.13   0.002     .1307944    .5699
> 852
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0208834    .010829    -1.93   0.054    -.0421079    .0003
> 411
         actotal |   -.041788   .0049691    -8.41   0.000    -.0515273   -.0320
> 487
     debt_crisis |   .0434932   .0301632     1.44   0.149    -.0156255     .102
> 612
 ungaidealpoint2 |   .0285741   .0181539     1.57   0.115    -.0070068     .064
> 155
      _Iccode_41 |   .0358204   .0719512     0.50   0.619    -.1052015    .1768
> 422
      _Iccode_70 |  -.0645208   .0578358    -1.12   0.265    -.1778769    .0488
> 353
      _Iccode_90 |   .0157749   .0689875     0.23   0.819     -.119438    .1509
> 878
      _Iccode_91 |  -.0424993    .092577    -0.46   0.646    -.2239468    .1389
> 483
      _Iccode_92 |  -.1068033   .0854463    -1.25   0.211    -.2742749    .0606
> 683
      _Iccode_93 |  -.0689869   .0412154    -1.67   0.094    -.1497675    .0117
> 938
      _Iccode_95 |   .0303312   .0711808     0.43   0.670    -.1091806     .169
> 843
     _Iccode_110 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_115 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_130 |  -.0094037   .0547449    -0.17   0.864    -.1167017    .0978
> 944
     _Iccode_135 |   .0546552   .0710496     0.77   0.442    -.0845994    .1939
> 099
     _Iccode_140 |  -.0511033   .0522864    -0.98   0.328    -.1535827    .0513
> 762
     _Iccode_145 |  -.0635002   .0554282    -1.15   0.252    -.1721375    .0451
> 371
     _Iccode_150 |  -.0467137   .0565343    -0.83   0.409    -.1575189    .0640
> 915
     _Iccode_155 |   .0255915   .0670543     0.38   0.703    -.1058325    .1570
> 155
     _Iccode_160 |  -.1494563   .2162617    -0.69   0.490    -.5733214    .2744
> 088
     _Iccode_165 |  -.0226446   .0760837    -0.30   0.766    -.1717659    .1264
> 766
     _Iccode_230 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_265 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_290 |   .1111176   .0791733     1.40   0.160    -.0440592    .2662
> 945
     _Iccode_310 |   .3099189   .0884698     3.50   0.000     .1365213    .4833
> 166
     _Iccode_339 |   .0856572   .0587906     1.46   0.145    -.0295702    .2008
> 846
     _Iccode_341 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_345 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_346 |   .2207997   .2025275     1.09   0.276    -.1761469    .6177
> 463
     _Iccode_352 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_355 |   .1903588   .1113612     1.71   0.087    -.0279051    .4086
> 227
     _Iccode_360 |   .0408309   .0674058     0.61   0.545     -.091282    .1729
> 437
     _Iccode_365 |  -.1275432   .0556479    -2.29   0.022     -.236611   -.0184
> 753
     _Iccode_370 |  -.1268069   .0578254    -2.19   0.028    -.2401426   -.0134
> 712
     _Iccode_372 |  -.0775077   .0605683    -1.28   0.201    -.1962194    .0412
> 039
     _Iccode_373 |   .1815581   .0642762     2.82   0.005      .055579    .3075
> 371
     _Iccode_402 |   .0900115   .0618858     1.45   0.146    -.0312825    .2113
> 055
     _Iccode_403 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_404 |   .0874055   .0701952     1.25   0.213    -.0501746    .2249
> 856
     _Iccode_411 |   .1302845   .0830515     1.57   0.117    -.0324934    .2930
> 625
     _Iccode_420 |   .0422608    .060465     0.70   0.485    -.0762484      .16
> 077
     _Iccode_432 |  -.0811132   .0755993    -1.07   0.283    -.2292851    .0670
> 587
     _Iccode_433 |  -.0471284   .0633764    -0.74   0.457    -.1713439    .0770
> 871
     _Iccode_434 |   .0883955   .1218592     0.73   0.468    -.1504442    .3272
> 351
     _Iccode_435 |   .0422103   .0642593     0.66   0.511    -.0837356    .1681
> 562
     _Iccode_436 |  -.0039788   .0667903    -0.06   0.952    -.1348854    .1269
> 277
     _Iccode_437 |  -.0134212   .0582225    -0.23   0.818    -.1275352    .1006
> 929
     _Iccode_438 |   .0884947   .0757774     1.17   0.243    -.0600262    .2370
> 157
     _Iccode_439 |  -.0143886   .0653998    -0.22   0.826    -.1425698    .1137
> 927
     _Iccode_450 |   .0451429   .1189983     0.38   0.704    -.1880894    .2783
> 752
     _Iccode_451 |   .0708958   .0885483     0.80   0.423    -.1026557    .2444
> 472
     _Iccode_452 |   .1347275   .0864198     1.56   0.119    -.0346523    .3041
> 073
     _Iccode_461 |   -.000774   .0593251    -0.01   0.990     -.117049    .1155
> 011
     _Iccode_471 |  -.0701252   .0544648    -1.29   0.198    -.1768742    .0366
> 238
     _Iccode_475 |  -.1708119   .0629415    -2.71   0.007    -.2941749   -.0474
> 489
     _Iccode_481 |   .1006008   .0537449     1.87   0.061    -.0047372    .2059
> 389
     _Iccode_482 |   .0181643    .061964     0.29   0.769     -.103283    .1396
> 116
     _Iccode_483 |   .0237304   .0640272     0.37   0.711    -.1017606    .1492
> 214
     _Iccode_484 |   .1587197   .0711898     2.23   0.026     .0191902    .2982
> 492
     _Iccode_490 |   -.064716   .0681092    -0.95   0.342    -.1982076    .0687
> 757
     _Iccode_500 |  -.1086574    .060168    -1.81   0.071    -.2265845    .0092
> 697
     _Iccode_501 |   .0423955   .0576668     0.74   0.462    -.0706293    .1554
> 203
     _Iccode_510 |    .001675   .0563639     0.03   0.976    -.1087962    .1121
> 462
     _Iccode_516 |  -.0708309   .1075594    -0.66   0.510    -.2816434    .1399
> 816
     _Iccode_517 |  -.0452413   .0872391    -0.52   0.604    -.2162268    .1257
> 441
     _Iccode_520 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_522 |   .0404697   .0555127     0.73   0.466    -.0683331    .1492
> 725
     _Iccode_530 |  -.0062615   .0622987    -0.10   0.920    -.1283648    .1158
> 418
     _Iccode_531 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_540 |   .0350393    .052657     0.67   0.506    -.0681666    .1382
> 452
     _Iccode_541 |   .0226447   .0623338     0.36   0.716    -.0995272    .1448
> 167
     _Iccode_551 |  -.0000869   .0503657    -0.00   0.999    -.0988019     .098
> 628
     _Iccode_552 |   -.064595   .0516633    -1.25   0.211    -.1658532    .0366
> 633
     _Iccode_553 |  -.0007581   .0690524    -0.01   0.991    -.1360983    .1345
> 821
     _Iccode_560 |   -.216738   .0696087    -3.11   0.002    -.3531686   -.0803
> 075
     _Iccode_565 |  -.0662113   .0764158    -0.87   0.386    -.2159835    .0835
> 609
     _Iccode_570 |  -.0125146   .0599979    -0.21   0.835    -.1301083    .1050
> 791
     _Iccode_571 |   .0404451   .0626218     0.65   0.518    -.0822913    .1631
> 816
     _Iccode_572 |   .0249649   .0544039     0.46   0.646    -.0816647    .1315
> 946
     _Iccode_580 |   .0886076   .0667659     1.33   0.184    -.0422512    .2194
> 665
     _Iccode_581 |   .0398097   .0571786     0.70   0.486    -.0722582    .1518
> 777
     _Iccode_591 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_600 |  -.0951667   .0493003    -1.93   0.054    -.1917936    .0014
> 602
     _Iccode_615 |  -.0396946   .0577926    -0.69   0.492     -.152966    .0735
> 768
     _Iccode_616 |  -.1724927   .0544171    -3.17   0.002    -.2791483   -.0658
> 371
     _Iccode_620 |  -.0620774   .0691659    -0.90   0.369      -.19764    .0734
> 852
     _Iccode_625 |  -.0245856   .0472426    -0.52   0.603    -.1171793    .0680
> 082
     _Iccode_630 |  -.0430917   .0554955    -0.78   0.437    -.1518609    .0656
> 775
     _Iccode_640 |   .0731735   .0726148     1.01   0.314    -.0691489    .2154
> 959
     _Iccode_645 |   .2178888   .0728219     2.99   0.003     .0751605    .3606
> 172
     _Iccode_651 |  -.1640692   .0471882    -3.48   0.001    -.2565564    -.071
> 582
     _Iccode_652 |  -.0553874   .0656135    -0.84   0.399    -.1839874    .0732
> 126
     _Iccode_660 |  -.0029612   .0489789    -0.06   0.952    -.0989581    .0930
> 357
     _Iccode_663 |  -.0573811   .0542002    -1.06   0.290    -.1636116    .0488
> 494
     _Iccode_670 |   .0427395   .0639222     0.67   0.504    -.0825456    .1680
> 246
     _Iccode_679 |   -.038308   .0592485    -0.65   0.518    -.1544331     .077
> 817
     _Iccode_680 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_690 |  -.0469595   .0866373    -0.54   0.588    -.2167654    .1228
> 465
     _Iccode_694 |   .1659409   .0743963     2.23   0.026     .0201268     .311
> 755
     _Iccode_698 |    .071248    .062084     1.15   0.251    -.0504345    .1929
> 305
     _Iccode_700 |  -.0634941    .071328    -0.89   0.373    -.2032944    .0763
> 062
     _Iccode_701 |   .0865622   .0687529     1.26   0.208    -.0481909    .2213
> 154
     _Iccode_702 |    .156228   .0569256     2.74   0.006     .0446559    .2678
> 001
     _Iccode_703 |  -.0050854   .0556391    -0.09   0.927     -.114136    .1039
> 651
     _Iccode_704 |  -.0357032   .0581774    -0.61   0.539    -.1497288    .0783
> 223
     _Iccode_705 |  -.1691597   .0551109    -3.07   0.002    -.2771751   -.0611
> 442
     _Iccode_710 |  -.0818917   .0494171    -1.66   0.097    -.1787474     .014
> 964
     _Iccode_712 |   .1801224   .1140307     1.58   0.114    -.0433736    .4036
> 185
     _Iccode_713 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_731 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_732 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_760 |   .0747106   .1231912     0.61   0.544    -.1667397    .3161
> 609
     _Iccode_770 |  -.0044478   .0486059    -0.09   0.927    -.0997136     .090
> 818
     _Iccode_771 |   .0119082   .0545492     0.22   0.827    -.0950063    .1188
> 227
     _Iccode_775 |   .0097733   .0493582     0.20   0.843     -.086967    .1065
> 136
     _Iccode_780 |  -.0565611   .0923711    -0.61   0.540    -.2376051    .1244
> 829
     _Iccode_790 |  -.0182577   .0648536    -0.28   0.778    -.1453684     .108
> 853
     _Iccode_800 |   -.142996    .055119    -2.59   0.009    -.2510273   -.0349
> 647
     _Iccode_811 |    .052067   .0627136     0.83   0.406    -.0708494    .1749
> 835
     _Iccode_812 |   .1914733   .0734911     2.61   0.009     .0474333    .3355
> 133
     _Iccode_816 |   .1515667   .0590919     2.56   0.010     .0357487    .2673
> 847
     _Iccode_820 |   -.008219   .0505337    -0.16   0.871    -.1072633    .0908
> 253
     _Iccode_830 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_840 |   .1991693   .0661106     3.01   0.003      .069595    .3287
> 437
     _Iccode_850 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iccode_950 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iyear_1973 |          0  (omitted)
     _Iyear_1974 |  -.0271713   .0516384    -0.53   0.599    -.1283807    .0740
> 381
     _Iyear_1975 |  -.0522144   .0418282    -1.25   0.212    -.1341961    .0297
> 673
     _Iyear_1976 |  -.0704289   .0443022    -1.59   0.112    -.1572596    .0164
> 018
     _Iyear_1977 |  -.0582898   .0451845    -1.29   0.197    -.1468498    .0302
> 702
     _Iyear_1978 |  -.0549214   .0469866    -1.17   0.242    -.1470134    .0371
> 706
     _Iyear_1979 |  -.0199531   .0449374    -0.44   0.657    -.1080287    .0681
> 226
     _Iyear_1980 |   .0278179   .0534024     0.52   0.602    -.0768488    .1324
> 846
     _Iyear_1981 |  -.0082743   .0481735    -0.17   0.864    -.1026927     .086
> 144
     _Iyear_1982 |  -.0048997   .0460576    -0.11   0.915     -.095171    .0853
> 715
     _Iyear_1983 |  -.0217845   .0494871    -0.44   0.660    -.1187776    .0752
> 085
     _Iyear_1984 |  -.0082478   .0450346    -0.18   0.855     -.096514    .0800
> 184
     _Iyear_1985 |   .0088199   .0442201     0.20   0.842    -.0778498    .0954
> 897
     _Iyear_1986 |   .0463874   .0466097     1.00   0.320    -.0449659    .1377
> 407
     _Iyear_1987 |   .0433579   .0489169     0.89   0.375    -.0525174    .1392
> 332
     _Iyear_1988 |   .0191171   .0535372     0.36   0.721    -.0858138    .1240
> 481
     _Iyear_1989 |   .0156613   .0557105     0.28   0.779    -.0935293    .1248
> 519
     _Iyear_1990 |    -.07078   .0663517    -1.07   0.286     -.200827    .0592
> 669
     _Iyear_1991 |   -.030967    .053705    -0.58   0.564    -.1362269    .0742
> 928
     _Iyear_1992 |   .0208412   .0516148     0.40   0.686     -.080322    .1220
> 043
     _Iyear_1993 |  -.0044576     .04948    -0.09   0.928    -.1014367    .0925
> 214
     _Iyear_1994 |  -.0269821   .0520452    -0.52   0.604    -.1289887    .0750
> 246
     _Iyear_1995 |   .0548873   .0559855     0.98   0.327    -.0548423    .1646
> 168
     _Iyear_1996 |   .0661017    .053653     1.23   0.218    -.0390562    .1712
> 595
     _Iyear_1997 |   .0053915   .0492531     0.11   0.913    -.0911429    .1019
> 259
     _Iyear_1998 |   .0110389   .0498345     0.22   0.825    -.0866351    .1087
> 128
     _Iyear_1999 |   .0374708   .0478298     0.78   0.433    -.0562738    .1312
> 155
     _Iyear_2000 |   .0229413   .0454609     0.50   0.614    -.0661604     .112
> 043
     _Iyear_2001 |   .0493873   .0479535     1.03   0.303    -.0445998    .1433
> 743
     _Iyear_2002 |   .0552778   .0503349     1.10   0.272    -.0433767    .1539
> 324
     _Iyear_2003 |   .0262433   .0466726     0.56   0.574    -.0652333    .1177
> 199
     _Iyear_2004 |   .0554121   .0565303     0.98   0.327    -.0553852    .1662
> 093
     _Iyear_2005 |  -.0119963   .0451513    -0.27   0.790    -.1004912    .0764
> 985
     _Iyear_2006 |   .0029167   .0440539     0.07   0.947    -.0834273    .0892
> 607
     _Iyear_2007 |  -.0023248   .0438162    -0.05   0.958    -.0882029    .0835
> 533
     _Iyear_2008 |   .0339517   .0443359     0.77   0.444     -.052945    .1208
> 484
     _Iyear_2009 |   .0411257   .0458183     0.90   0.369    -.0486766     .130
> 928
     _Iyear_2010 |   .0211782    .046138     0.46   0.646    -.0692506     .111
> 607
     _Iyear_2011 |  -.0445913    .044771    -1.00   0.319    -.1323408    .0431
> 583
     _Iyear_2012 |   .0163146   .0403692     0.40   0.686    -.0628077    .0954
> 368
     _Iyear_2013 |   .0589057   .0320211     1.84   0.066    -.0038544    .1216
> 658
     _Iyear_2014 |          0  (omitted)
           _cons |  -.1131509   .1978775    -0.57   0.567    -.5009837    .2746
> 818
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             62.499
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               58.062
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         59.479
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal debt_crisis ungaidealpoint2
                      _Iccode_41 _Iccode_70 _Iccode_90 _Iccode_91 _Iccode_92
                      _Iccode_93 _Iccode_95 _Iccode_130 _Iccode_135 _Iccode_140
                      _Iccode_145 _Iccode_150 _Iccode_155 _Iccode_160
                      _Iccode_165 _Iccode_290 _Iccode_310 _Iccode_339
                      _Iccode_346 _Iccode_355 _Iccode_360 _Iccode_365
                      _Iccode_370 _Iccode_372 _Iccode_373 _Iccode_402
                      _Iccode_404 _Iccode_411 _Iccode_420 _Iccode_432
                      _Iccode_433 _Iccode_434 _Iccode_435 _Iccode_436
                      _Iccode_437 _Iccode_438 _Iccode_439 _Iccode_450
                      _Iccode_451 _Iccode_452 _Iccode_461 _Iccode_471
                      _Iccode_475 _Iccode_481 _Iccode_482 _Iccode_483
                      _Iccode_484 _Iccode_490 _Iccode_500 _Iccode_501
                      _Iccode_510 _Iccode_516 _Iccode_517 _Iccode_522
                      _Iccode_530 _Iccode_540 _Iccode_541 _Iccode_551
                      _Iccode_552 _Iccode_553 _Iccode_560 _Iccode_565
                      _Iccode_570 _Iccode_571 _Iccode_572 _Iccode_580
                      _Iccode_581 _Iccode_600 _Iccode_615 _Iccode_616
                      _Iccode_620 _Iccode_625 _Iccode_630 _Iccode_640
                      _Iccode_645 _Iccode_651 _Iccode_652 _Iccode_660
                      _Iccode_663 _Iccode_670 _Iccode_679 _Iccode_690
                      _Iccode_694 _Iccode_698 _Iccode_700 _Iccode_701
                      _Iccode_702 _Iccode_703 _Iccode_704 _Iccode_705
                      _Iccode_710 _Iccode_712 _Iccode_760 _Iccode_770
                      _Iccode_771 _Iccode_775 _Iccode_780 _Iccode_790
                      _Iccode_800 _Iccode_811 _Iccode_812 _Iccode_816
                      _Iccode_820 _Iccode_840 _Iyear_1974 _Iyear_1975
                      _Iyear_1976 _Iyear_1977 _Iyear_1978 _Iyear_1979
                      _Iyear_1980 _Iyear_1981 _Iyear_1982 _Iyear_1983
                      _Iyear_1984 _Iyear_1985 _Iyear_1986 _Iyear_1987
                      _Iyear_1988 _Iyear_1989 _Iyear_1990 _Iyear_1991
                      _Iyear_1992 _Iyear_1993 _Iyear_1994 _Iyear_1995
                      _Iyear_1996 _Iyear_1997 _Iyear_1998 _Iyear_1999
                      _Iyear_2000 _Iyear_2001 _Iyear_2002 _Iyear_2003
                      _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007
                      _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011
                      _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
Dropped collinear:    _Iccode_110 _Iccode_115 _Iccode_230 _Iccode_265
                      _Iccode_341 _Iccode_345 _Iccode_352 _Iccode_403
                      _Iccode_520 _Iccode_531 _Iccode_591 _Iccode_680
                      _Iccode_713 _Iccode_731 _Iccode_732 _Iccode_830
                      _Iccode_850 _Iccode_950 _Iyear_1973 _Iyear_2014
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ***** Figure 4 in main paper and Table A9 (lags of compound instrument up to 
> t-7) *****
. ivreg2 theta_mean l.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liqu
> idity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.year i.ccode, ro
> bust 
Warning: time variable year has 24 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2858
                                                      F(152,  2705) =  1255.21
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =   3196.52061                Centered R2   =   0.9639
Total (uncentered) SS   =  5057.597112                Uncentered R2 =   0.9772
Residual SS             =  115.5084868                Root MSE      =     .201

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |  -.1568399   .0747599    -2.10   0.036    -.3033665   -.0103
> 132
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8640132   .0154916    55.77   0.000     .8336502    .8943
> 763
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0310538   .0835046     0.37   0.710    -.1326122    .1947
> 197
     e_migdppcln |   .0037266   .0186942     0.20   0.842    -.0329134    .0403
> 666
     v2xcl_acjst |     .37411   .0990421     3.78   0.000     .1799911    .5682
> 289
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0197323   .0096977    -2.03   0.042    -.0387395   -.0007
> 251
         actotal |  -.0369422   .0045078    -8.20   0.000    -.0457774    -.028
> 107
                 |
            year |
           1975  |  -.0259967   .0333916    -0.78   0.436     -.091443    .0394
> 496
           1976  |  -.0435044   .0405188    -1.07   0.283    -.1229198     .035
> 911
           1977  |  -.0278785   .0392649    -0.71   0.478    -.1048362    .0490
> 792
           1978  |  -.0299336   .0403974    -0.74   0.459     -.109111    .0492
> 438
           1979  |    .003508   .0387638     0.09   0.928    -.0724677    .0794
> 836
           1980  |   .0491691   .0492153     1.00   0.318    -.0472912    .1456
> 294
           1981  |    .011675   .0426249     0.27   0.784    -.0718682    .0952
> 183
           1982  |   .0154304   .0407023     0.38   0.705    -.0643446    .0952
> 053
           1983  |     .00222   .0447175     0.05   0.960    -.0854247    .0898
> 647
           1984  |   .0088644   .0382753     0.23   0.817    -.0661538    .0838
> 827
           1985  |   .0208238    .037676     0.55   0.580    -.0530199    .0946
> 675
           1986  |   .0590648   .0400517     1.47   0.140    -.0194351    .1375
> 647
           1987  |   .0547266   .0415628     1.32   0.188    -.0267351    .1361
> 882
           1988  |   .0305331   .0465865     0.66   0.512    -.0607747    .1218
> 408
           1989  |   .0288934   .0477524     0.61   0.545    -.0646996    .1224
> 864
           1990  |  -.0692004   .0708014    -0.98   0.328    -.2079686    .0695
> 678
           1991  |  -.0256849   .0481244    -0.53   0.594    -.1200069    .0686
> 372
           1992  |   .0234444   .0454287     0.52   0.606    -.0655943     .112
> 483
           1993  |  -.0009967   .0428951    -0.02   0.981    -.0850696    .0830
> 761
           1994  |  -.0190295   .0424023    -0.45   0.654    -.1021364    .0640
> 774
           1995  |   .0581777   .0480411     1.21   0.226    -.0359811    .1523
> 366
           1996  |   .0660888   .0448971     1.47   0.141    -.0219079    .1540
> 856
           1997  |   .0015196   .0411894     0.04   0.971    -.0792101    .0822
> 494
           1998  |   .0045366   .0422204     0.11   0.914    -.0782139    .0872
> 871
           1999  |   .0260092   .0401137     0.65   0.517    -.0526122    .1046
> 305
           2000  |   .0153517   .0388593     0.40   0.693    -.0608111    .0915
> 144
           2001  |   .0348982   .0396504     0.88   0.379    -.0428152    .1126
> 116
           2002  |   .0446192   .0427292     1.04   0.296    -.0391285     .128
> 367
           2003  |   .0178492   .0389932     0.46   0.647     -.058576    .0942
> 744
           2004  |    .055534   .0526534     1.05   0.292    -.0476647    .1587
> 327
           2005  |  -.0128622   .0390724    -0.33   0.742    -.0894427    .0637
> 182
           2006  |   .0006788   .0395509     0.02   0.986    -.0768395    .0781
> 971
           2007  |  -.0050502   .0405967    -0.12   0.901    -.0846183    .0745
> 179
           2008  |   .0311142    .040728     0.76   0.445    -.0487112    .1109
> 396
           2009  |   .0396466   .0409455     0.97   0.333     -.040605    .1198
> 982
           2010  |   .0188627   .0405621     0.47   0.642    -.0606376    .0983
> 629
           2011  |  -.0480214   .0463805    -1.04   0.300    -.1389255    .0428
> 828
           2012  |   .0100557   .0383275     0.26   0.793    -.0650648    .0851
> 762
           2013  |  -.0031509   .0419612    -0.08   0.940    -.0853933    .0790
> 915
           2014  |  -.0101495   .0403334    -0.25   0.801    -.0892015    .0689
> 024
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.1249122   .0613432    -2.04   0.042    -.2451427   -.0046
> 817
             90  |  -.0218867   .0577619    -0.38   0.705    -.1350979    .0913
> 245
             91  |  -.0908268   .0882862    -1.03   0.304    -.2638647     .082
> 211
             92  |  -.1505125   .0732118    -2.06   0.040     -.294005     -.00
> 702
             93  |  -.1429231   .0632985    -2.26   0.024    -.2669859   -.0188
> 604
             95  |  -.0413961   .0591111    -0.70   0.484    -.1572516    .0744
> 595
            130  |  -.0654557   .0561482    -1.17   0.244    -.1755042    .0445
> 929
            135  |   .0065224   .0720149     0.09   0.928    -.1346242     .147
> 669
            140  |  -.0988934   .0567521    -1.74   0.081    -.2101255    .0123
> 386
            145  |  -.0989094   .0562385    -1.76   0.079    -.2091349     .011
> 316
            150  |  -.0606534   .0569767    -1.06   0.287    -.1723257    .0510
> 189
            155  |  -.0096018   .0621267    -0.15   0.877     -.131368    .1121
> 644
            160  |  -.2045552   .2156594    -0.95   0.343      -.62724    .2181
> 295
            165  |  -.0688104    .062469    -1.10   0.271    -.1912474    .0536
> 266
            290  |   .0355363   .0944718     0.38   0.707     -.149625    .2206
> 975
            310  |   .1928479   .0918603     2.10   0.036      .012805    .3728
> 907
            339  |   .0191769   .0603176     0.32   0.751    -.0990435    .1373
> 972
            346  |   .1525981   .1681837     0.91   0.364     -.177036    .4822
> 322
            355  |   .2074909   .1244465     1.67   0.095    -.0364197    .4514
> 015
            360  |  -.0384775   .0603634    -0.64   0.524    -.1567875    .0798
> 326
            365  |  -.2162832   .0704166    -3.07   0.002    -.3542972   -.0782
> 692
            370  |  -.1755679   .0833538    -2.11   0.035    -.3389382   -.0121
> 975
            372  |  -.0907157   .0759533    -1.19   0.232    -.2395814      .05
> 815
            373  |    .139029   .0668518     2.08   0.038      .008002    .2700
> 561
            402  |   .0130656   .0870253     0.15   0.881    -.1575009    .1836
> 321
            404  |   .0539964   .0700001     0.77   0.440    -.0832012     .191
> 194
            411  |   .0603479   .0755277     0.80   0.424    -.0876838    .2083
> 795
            420  |  -.0310145   .0735871    -0.42   0.673    -.1752426    .1132
> 135
            432  |    -.15848   .0838772    -1.89   0.059    -.3228762    .0059
> 162
            433  |  -.1177487   .0815126    -1.44   0.149    -.2775104     .042
> 013
            434  |   .0212071   .1268991     0.17   0.867    -.2275106    .2699
> 248
            435  |  -.0307609   .0753407    -0.41   0.683    -.1784259    .1169
> 041
            436  |  -.0692312    .078409    -0.88   0.377    -.2229101    .0844
> 476
            437  |  -.0451503   .0656164    -0.69   0.491     -.173756    .0834
> 555
            438  |   .0476308   .0704415     0.68   0.499    -.0904319    .1856
> 935
            439  |  -.0771615   .0763784    -1.01   0.312    -.2268605    .0725
> 376
            450  |  -.0895615    .086801    -1.03   0.302    -.2596882    .0805
> 653
            451  |   .0128949   .0801959     0.16   0.872    -.1442862     .170
> 076
            452  |   .0767703   .0793585     0.97   0.333    -.0787695      .23
> 231
            461  |  -.0337519    .066447    -0.51   0.611    -.1639856    .0964
> 818
            471  |  -.1192432   .0664078    -1.80   0.073    -.2494002    .0109
> 137
            475  |  -.2388177   .0809164    -2.95   0.003     -.397411   -.0802
> 244
            481  |   .0154657   .0676135     0.23   0.819    -.1170544    .1479
> 858
            482  |  -.0229694   .0668409    -0.34   0.731    -.1539751    .1080
> 364
            483  |  -.0113262   .0631673    -0.18   0.858    -.1351318    .1124
> 795
            484  |    .065331   .0719314     0.91   0.364     -.075652     .206
> 314
            490  |  -.1032025   .0631196    -1.64   0.102    -.2269146    .0205
> 097
            500  |  -.1734969   .0820122    -2.12   0.034     -.334238   -.0127
> 559
            501  |  -.0148399   .0525084    -0.28   0.777    -.1177545    .0880
> 746
            510  |  -.0683275   .0709564    -0.96   0.336    -.2073996    .0707
> 446
            516  |  -.1351605    .123224    -1.10   0.273     -.376675    .1063
> 541
            517  |  -.1081087    .094669    -1.14   0.253    -.2936565    .0774
> 392
            522  |  -.0182726    .072523    -0.25   0.801     -.160415    .1238
> 699
            530  |  -.0686996   .0722734    -0.95   0.342    -.2103528    .0729
> 536
            540  |  -.0341777     .07031    -0.49   0.627    -.1719827    .1036
> 273
            541  |  -.0490986   .0732537    -0.67   0.503    -.1926733    .0944
> 761
            551  |  -.0735341   .0673155    -1.09   0.275      -.20547    .0584
> 018
            552  |  -.1235393   .0666822    -1.85   0.064     -.254234    .0071
> 554
            553  |  -.0243847   .0746278    -0.33   0.744    -.1706525     .121
> 883
            560  |  -.2183503   .0728573    -3.00   0.003    -.3611479   -.0755
> 527
            565  |  -.1335279   .1018101    -1.31   0.190    -.3330721    .0660
> 163
            570  |  -.0660586   .0773399    -0.85   0.393     -.217642    .0855
> 249
            571  |  -.0296568   .0898424    -0.33   0.741    -.2057448    .1464
> 311
            572  |    -.02096   .0760386    -0.28   0.783     -.169993     .128
> 073
            580  |    .015718   .0602433     0.26   0.794    -.1023566    .1337
> 927
            581  |  -.0141167   .0767875    -0.18   0.854    -.1646173     .136
> 384
            600  |  -.1607228    .078739    -2.04   0.041    -.3150485   -.0063
> 971
            615  |  -.1262101   .0810288    -1.56   0.119    -.2850237    .0326
> 035
            616  |   -.231097   .0823975    -2.80   0.005     -.392593   -.0696
> 009
            620  |  -.1408383   .0737455    -1.91   0.056    -.2853768    .0037
> 002
            625  |   -.090311   .0522089    -1.73   0.084    -.1926386    .0120
> 165
            630  |   -.111838   .0703808    -1.59   0.112    -.2497818    .0261
> 058
            640  |   .0250432   .0613324     0.41   0.683     -.095166    .1452
> 525
            645  |   .0382345   .0724638     0.53   0.598    -.1037919    .1802
> 609
            651  |  -.2392937   .0692376    -3.46   0.001    -.3749969   -.1035
> 905
            652  |  -.1172152   .0658857    -1.78   0.075    -.2463488    .0119
> 183
            660  |  -.0792261   .0727567    -1.09   0.276    -.2218266    .0633
> 743
            663  |  -.1139833   .0731776    -1.56   0.119    -.2574088    .0294
> 421
            670  |  -.0211076   .0669624    -0.32   0.753    -.1523516    .1101
> 363
            679  |  -.1028413   .0613096    -1.68   0.093     -.223006    .0173
> 234
            690  |  -.1366742   .1054173    -1.30   0.195    -.3432882    .0699
> 399
            694  |   .0603126   .0915303     0.66   0.510    -.1190835    .2397
> 086
            698  |  -.0192242   .0886651    -0.22   0.828    -.1930046    .1545
> 563
            700  |  -.1280755   .0769165    -1.67   0.096     -.278829    .0226
> 781
            701  |   .0437417   .0662732     0.66   0.509    -.0861514    .1736
> 347
            702  |   .0919197    .060886     1.51   0.131    -.0274147    .2112
> 541
            703  |  -.0613224   .0649075    -0.94   0.345    -.1885388    .0658
> 939
            704  |  -.0758996   .0599359    -1.27   0.205    -.1933717    .0415
> 726
            705  |   -.220566   .0794526    -2.78   0.006    -.3762902   -.0648
> 419
            710  |   -.136262   .0701195    -1.94   0.052    -.2736936    .0011
> 697
            712  |   .0957752    .113374     0.84   0.398    -.1264337    .3179
> 841
            732  |  -.1437621    .061068    -2.35   0.019    -.2634532   -.0240
> 711
            760  |   .0434346   .1362139     0.32   0.750    -.2235397     .310
> 409
            770  |  -.0639424   .0513473    -1.25   0.213    -.1645813    .0366
> 965
            771  |  -.0551733   .0604301    -0.91   0.361    -.1736141    .0632
> 674
            775  |   -.053328   .0552539    -0.97   0.334    -.1616236    .0549
> 677
            780  |  -.1368765   .0997255    -1.37   0.170    -.3323349    .0585
> 818
            790  |  -.0600587   .0670892    -0.90   0.371    -.1915512    .0714
> 338
            800  |  -.1661027   .0719415    -2.31   0.021    -.3071054   -.0251
> 001
            811  |   .0105348   .0685401     0.15   0.878    -.1238013    .1448
> 709
            812  |   .1284232   .0698539     1.84   0.066    -.0084878    .2653
> 343
            816  |    .062362   .0649173     0.96   0.337    -.0648736    .1895
> 975
            820  |  -.0823883   .0774343    -1.06   0.287    -.2341567    .0693
> 801
            840  |   .1219683   .0561303     2.17   0.030      .011955    .2319
> 817
            850  |  -.0839945   .0686659    -1.22   0.221    -.2185773    .0505
> 882
                 |
           _cons |  -.1445032   .1583746    -0.91   0.362    -.4549118    .1659
> 053
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             65.272
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               56.651
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         60.841
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal 1975.year 1976.year 1977.year
                      1978.year 1979.year 1980.year 1981.year 1982.year
                      1983.year 1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year
                      1988.year 1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year
                      1993.year 1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year
                      1998.year 1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year
                      2003.year 2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year
                      2008.year 2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year
                      2013.year 2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode
                      93.ccode 95.ccode 130.ccode 135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode
                      150.ccode 155.ccode 160.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode
                      310.ccode 339.ccode 346.ccode 355.ccode 360.ccode
                      365.ccode 370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode
                      404.ccode 411.ccode 420.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode
                      434.ccode 435.ccode 436.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode
                      439.ccode 450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode
                      471.ccode 475.ccode 481.ccode 482.ccode 483.ccode
                      484.ccode 490.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode 510.ccode
                      516.ccode 517.ccode 522.ccode 530.ccode 540.ccode
                      541.ccode 551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode
                      565.ccode 570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode 580.ccode
                      581.ccode 600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode
                      625.ccode 630.ccode 640.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode
                      652.ccode 660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode
                      690.ccode 694.ccode 698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode
                      702.ccode 703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode
                      712.ccode 732.ccode 760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode
                      775.ccode 780.ccode 790.ccode 800.ccode 811.ccode
                      812.ccode 816.ccode 820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store lag1

. ivreg2 theta_mean l.theta_mean l2.imf_movingavg1 (l2.imfprogram_uu= l2.imf_ma
> xlog_liquidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.year i.
> ccode, robust 
Warning: time variable year has 19 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2649
                                                      F(149,  2499) =     8.58
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  2919.051028                Centered R2   =   0.9565
Total (uncentered) SS   =  4638.812233                Uncentered R2 =   0.9726
Residual SS             =  126.9579971                Root MSE      =    .2189

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |
             L2. |   -.311123   .1026164    -3.03   0.002    -.5122475   -.1099
> 986
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8639396   .0169481    50.98   0.000      .830722    .8971
> 573
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |
             L2. |   .2416247    .122644     1.97   0.049     .0012469    .4820
> 025
                 |
     e_migdppcln |   .0025606   .0210234     0.12   0.903    -.0386444    .0437
> 657
     v2xcl_acjst |   .4778979   .1143926     4.18   0.000     .2536926    .7021
> 033
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0136759   .0109693    -1.25   0.212    -.0351753    .0078
> 235
         actotal |  -.0363977   .0045891    -7.93   0.000    -.0453922   -.0274
> 032
                 |
            year |
           1977  |   .0032715   .0382836     0.09   0.932     -.071763     .078
> 306
           1978  |   .0253785   .0409581     0.62   0.536     -.054898     .105
> 655
           1979  |   .0713256   .0389938     1.83   0.067    -.0051009     .147
> 752
           1980  |   .0740362   .0444334     1.67   0.096    -.0130517     .161
> 124
           1981  |   .0578667   .0376769     1.54   0.125    -.0159787    .1317
> 121
           1982  |   .0960669   .0392952     2.44   0.014     .0190497     .173
> 084
           1983  |   .0776986   .0428277     1.81   0.070    -.0062422    .1616
> 393
           1984  |   .0780496   .0368241     2.12   0.034     .0058757    .1502
> 235
           1985  |   .1012081   .0361425     2.80   0.005     .0303702    .1720
> 461
           1986  |   .1047072   .0336776     3.11   0.002     .0387004     .170
> 714
           1987  |   .0966372    .033256     2.91   0.004     .0314567    .1618
> 178
           1988  |    .088077   .0387513     2.27   0.023     .0121258    .1640
> 282
           1989  |   .0892311   .0418005     2.13   0.033     .0073037    .1711
> 586
           1990  |   .0065732   .0705578     0.09   0.926    -.1317176     .144
> 864
           1991  |   .0565236   .0445165     1.27   0.204    -.0307272    .1437
> 744
           1992  |   .0947423   .0398233     2.38   0.017       .01669    .1727
> 945
           1993  |   .0748086   .0406056     1.84   0.065    -.0047768    .1543
> 941
           1994  |   .0359089   .0378408     0.95   0.343    -.0382577    .1100
> 754
           1995  |   .0864842   .0402851     2.15   0.032     .0075268    .1654
> 416
           1996  |   .1048196   .0381304     2.75   0.006     .0300854    .1795
> 538
           1997  |   .0696532   .0378038     1.84   0.065    -.0044409    .1437
> 473
           1998  |   .0869823   .0389263     2.23   0.025     .0106881    .1632
> 766
           1999  |   .1014884    .036936     2.75   0.006     .0290951    .1738
> 818
           2000  |     .09667   .0373176     2.59   0.010     .0235287    .1698
> 112
           2001  |   .0947194   .0355393     2.67   0.008     .0250636    .1643
> 752
           2002  |    .067095   .0411423     1.63   0.103    -.0135423    .1477
> 324
           2003  |   .0775109   .0354628     2.19   0.029     .0080052    .1470
> 167
           2004  |   .1092151   .0492895     2.22   0.027     .0126095    .2058
> 206
           2005  |   .0450035   .0395804     1.14   0.256    -.0325727    .1225
> 797
           2006  |   .0564403   .0364191     1.55   0.121    -.0149397    .1278
> 204
           2007  |    .043551   .0437755     0.99   0.320    -.0422474    .1293
> 494
           2008  |   .0608624   .0425893     1.43   0.153     -.022611    .1443
> 359
           2009  |    .057716   .0411192     1.40   0.160     -.022876    .1383
> 081
           2010  |   .0433948   .0426049     1.02   0.308    -.0401093    .1268
> 989
           2011  |   .0208688   .0446836     0.47   0.640    -.0667094    .1084
> 471
           2012  |   .0621062   .0368893     1.68   0.092    -.0101955    .1344
> 079
           2013  |   .0298164   .0429085     0.69   0.487    -.0542826    .1139
> 155
           2014  |   .0325486   .0415352     0.78   0.433    -.0488588     .113
> 956
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.0575371   .0763709    -0.75   0.451    -.2072213    .0921
> 471
             90  |  -.0255905   .0856003    -0.30   0.765    -.1933641     .142
> 183
             91  |  -.2309719   .0958154    -2.41   0.016    -.4187665   -.0431
> 773
             92  |  -.1926957   .1047588    -1.84   0.066    -.3980192    .0126
> 278
             93  |  -.1655349   .0743852    -2.23   0.026    -.3113273   -.0197
> 426
             95  |  -.0277341   .0578956    -0.48   0.632    -.1412074    .0857
> 393
            130  |  -.1120964   .0753279    -1.49   0.137    -.2597364    .0355
> 435
            135  |   .0535523    .088862     0.60   0.547     -.120614    .2277
> 185
            140  |  -.1730963   .0722725    -2.40   0.017    -.3147478   -.0314
> 448
            145  |  -.0579584   .0847185    -0.68   0.494    -.2240036    .1080
> 869
            150  |   .0063334   .0664033     0.10   0.924    -.1238148    .1364
> 815
            155  |    .061538   .0878379     0.70   0.484    -.1106211    .2336
> 971
            160  |   -.113721   .3043804    -0.37   0.709    -.7102957    .4828
> 536
            165  |  -.0276453   .0745047    -0.37   0.711    -.1736718    .1183
> 812
            290  |   .1943093   .1036766     1.87   0.061    -.0088932    .3975
> 117
            310  |   .2345412    .097545     2.40   0.016     .0433566    .4257
> 258
            339  |   .0793964   .0683824     1.16   0.246    -.0546307    .2134
> 235
            346  |   .2759833   .1703662     1.62   0.105    -.0579283     .609
> 895
            360  |  -.0066161   .0724534    -0.09   0.927    -.1486221    .1353
> 899
            365  |  -.2266913   .0715445    -3.17   0.002    -.3669159   -.0864
> 667
            370  |  -.1799178   .0894093    -2.01   0.044    -.3551568   -.0046
> 789
            372  |  -.0411629   .0920464    -0.45   0.655    -.2215705    .1392
> 447
            373  |    .231212   .0804622     2.87   0.004     .0735089     .388
> 915
            402  |   .0168452   .0888673     0.19   0.850    -.1573314    .1910
> 219
            404  |   .1284537   .0853658     1.50   0.132    -.0388602    .2957
> 676
            411  |   .1222361   .0876047     1.40   0.163    -.0494661    .2939
> 382
            420  |  -.0038164   .0776087    -0.05   0.961    -.1559266    .1482
> 938
            432  |  -.1482787   .0952059    -1.56   0.119    -.3348788    .0383
> 214
            433  |    -.10252   .0874694    -1.17   0.241    -.2739568    .0689
> 167
            434  |   .0462061   .1315047     0.35   0.725    -.2115383    .3039
> 505
            435  |   .0085593   .0813269     0.11   0.916    -.1508385    .1679
> 572
            436  |  -.0005462   .0870062    -0.01   0.995    -.1710752    .1699
> 827
            437  |   .0233873   .0781151     0.30   0.765    -.1297156    .1764
> 902
            438  |   .1459183   .0851158     1.71   0.086    -.0209056    .3127
> 421
            439  |  -.0070331   .0855913    -0.08   0.935     -.174789    .1607
> 229
            450  |   -.137888   .0924655    -1.49   0.136    -.3191171    .0433
> 411
            451  |   .0769188    .092572     0.83   0.406    -.1045189    .2583
> 565
            452  |   .1989999   .0948749     2.10   0.036     .0130486    .3849
> 512
            461  |   .0222346   .0757624     0.29   0.769     -.126257    .1707
> 261
            471  |  -.0426765   .0783454    -0.54   0.586    -.1962306    .1108
> 776
            475  |  -.2002266   .0852622    -2.35   0.019    -.3673373   -.0331
> 158
            481  |   .0556671   .0753477     0.74   0.460    -.0920117     .203
> 346
            482  |   .0701165   .0827443     0.85   0.397    -.0920593    .2322
> 923
            483  |   .0829594   .0801557     1.03   0.301     -.074143    .2400
> 617
            484  |   .1538704   .0847457     1.82   0.069    -.0122282    .3199
> 689
            490  |  -.0426505   .0774914    -0.55   0.582    -.1945308    .1092
> 298
            500  |   -.190491   .0869813    -2.19   0.029    -.3609712   -.0200
> 107
            501  |   .0291518    .064413     0.45   0.651    -.0970955     .155
> 399
            510  |  -.0330579   .0767048    -0.43   0.666    -.1833966    .1172
> 807
            516  |  -.2420306   .0994394    -2.43   0.015    -.4369282    -.047
> 133
            517  |  -.0960077   .1033372    -0.93   0.353    -.2985449    .1065
> 295
            522  |   .0337299   .0812919     0.41   0.678    -.1255993     .193
> 059
            530  |    .007459   .0825579     0.09   0.928    -.1543516    .1692
> 696
            540  |   .0233127    .082731     0.28   0.778    -.1388371    .1854
> 624
            541  |  -.0301347   .0779394    -0.39   0.699    -.1828931    .1226
> 237
            551  |  -.0738956   .0719975    -1.03   0.305    -.2150081     .067
> 217
            552  |  -.1347034   .0686741    -1.96   0.050    -.2693022   -.0001
> 045
            553  |   .0663133   .0852485     0.78   0.437    -.1007706    .2333
> 973
            560  |  -.2075894   .0800395    -2.59   0.009     -.364464   -.0507
> 148
            565  |  -.1402331   .1066503    -1.31   0.189    -.3492638    .0687
> 976
            570  |  -.0087916   .0850364    -0.10   0.918      -.17546    .1578
> 768
            571  |  -.0166113   .0937798    -0.18   0.859    -.2004162    .1671
> 937
            572  |   .0015853   .0828252     0.02   0.985     -.160749    .1639
> 197
            580  |   .0867789   .0740765     1.17   0.241    -.0584083    .2319
> 661
            581  |   .0155559   .0779882     0.20   0.842    -.1372982      .16
> 841
            600  |  -.2107634   .0865225    -2.44   0.015    -.3803445   -.0411
> 824
            615  |  -.1015397   .0879279    -1.15   0.248    -.2738753    .0707
> 959
            616  |  -.2382602   .0874184    -2.73   0.006    -.4095972   -.0669
> 232
            620  |  -.0844909   .0842537    -1.00   0.316    -.2496252    .0806
> 434
            625  |  -.0929722   .0606886    -1.53   0.126    -.2119196    .0259
> 753
            630  |  -.0632172   .0815764    -0.77   0.438     -.223104    .0966
> 697
            640  |   .1458109   .0859997     1.70   0.090    -.0227454    .3143
> 672
            645  |   .1237897   .0930317     1.33   0.183    -.0585492    .3061
> 285
            651  |  -.2233856   .0732745    -3.05   0.002     -.367001   -.0797
> 702
            652  |  -.0493113   .0775603    -0.64   0.525    -.2013267     .102
> 704
            660  |  -.0247642   .0785574    -0.32   0.753    -.1787339    .1292
> 054
            663  |  -.0681611   .0798824    -0.85   0.394    -.2247277    .0884
> 056
            670  |    .035463   .0801164     0.44   0.658    -.1215623    .1924
> 883
            679  |  -.0323343    .076477    -0.42   0.672    -.1822264    .1175
> 578
            690  |  -.1341168   .1135747    -1.18   0.238     -.356719    .0884
> 854
            694  |   .0847724   .1008025     0.84   0.400    -.1127969    .2823
> 418
            698  |  -.0113924   .0950936    -0.12   0.905    -.1977724    .1749
> 876
            700  |  -.0838724   .0888615    -0.94   0.345    -.2580377    .0902
> 929
            701  |   .1052804   .0799502     1.32   0.188    -.0514191    .2619
> 799
            702  |   .1786809   .0756302     2.36   0.018     .0304484    .3269
> 134
            703  |  -.0473733   .0619955    -0.76   0.445    -.1688823    .0741
> 357
            704  |  -.0251993   .0700466    -0.36   0.719    -.1624881    .1120
> 894
            705  |  -.2422135   .0840494    -2.88   0.004    -.4069472   -.0774
> 798
            710  |  -.1121211   .0754247    -1.49   0.137    -.2599509    .0357
> 086
            712  |  -.1224809   .0901213    -1.36   0.174    -.2991155    .0541
> 536
            732  |  -.1862597   .0786396    -2.37   0.018    -.3403904    -.032
> 129
            760  |   .0323193   .1441465     0.22   0.823    -.2502027    .3148
> 412
            770  |   .0023749   .0598325     0.04   0.968    -.1148947    .1196
> 444
            771  |   .0211271   .0840785     0.25   0.802    -.1436638    .1859
> 179
            775  |  -.0502061   .0604097    -0.83   0.406     -.168607    .0681
> 949
            780  |   -.156102   .1125586    -1.39   0.165    -.3767129    .0645
> 088
            790  |   .0327388   .0956168     0.34   0.732    -.1546666    .2201
> 442
            800  |  -.1244801   .0806456    -1.54   0.123    -.2825426    .0335
> 823
            811  |   .1040497   .0792172     1.31   0.189    -.0512131    .2593
> 125
            812  |   .2125156   .0813562     2.61   0.009     .0530604    .3719
> 708
            816  |   .1264843   .0774057     1.63   0.102    -.0252281    .2781
> 967
            820  |  -.0556976   .0836699    -0.67   0.506    -.2196876    .1082
> 924
            840  |   .1344509   .0678666     1.98   0.048     .0014348    .2674
> 671
            850  |  -.1060349   .0716962    -1.48   0.139    -.2465569     .034
> 487
                 |
           _cons |  -.2803433   .1796853    -1.56   0.119      -.63252    .0718
> 334
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             49.394
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               42.040
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         45.050
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         L2.imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean L2.imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal 1977.year 1978.year 1979.year
                      1980.year 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year 1984.year
                      1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year 1989.year
                      1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year 1994.year
                      1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year 1999.year
                      2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year 2004.year
                      2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year 2009.year
                      2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year 2014.year 70.ccod
> e
                      90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode 93.ccode 95.ccode 130.ccode
                      135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccode 155.ccode
                      160.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode 310.ccode 339.ccode
                      346.ccode 360.ccode 365.ccode 370.ccode 372.ccode
                      373.ccode 402.ccode 404.ccode 411.ccode 420.ccode
                      432.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode 435.ccode 436.ccode
                      437.ccode 438.ccode 439.ccode 450.ccode 451.ccode
                      452.ccode 461.ccode 471.ccode 475.ccode 481.ccode
                      482.ccode 483.ccode 484.ccode 490.ccode 500.ccode
                      501.ccode 510.ccode 516.ccode 517.ccode 522.ccode
                      530.ccode 540.ccode 541.ccode 551.ccode 552.ccode
                      553.ccode 560.ccode 565.ccode 570.ccode 571.ccode
                      572.ccode 580.ccode 581.ccode 600.ccode 615.ccode
                      616.ccode 620.ccode 625.ccode 630.ccode 640.ccode
                      645.ccode 651.ccode 652.ccode 660.ccode 663.ccode
                      670.ccode 679.ccode 690.ccode 694.ccode 698.ccode
                      700.ccode 701.ccode 702.ccode 703.ccode 704.ccode
                      705.ccode 710.ccode 712.ccode 732.ccode 760.ccode
                      770.ccode 771.ccode 775.ccode 780.ccode 790.ccode
                      800.ccode 811.ccode 812.ccode 816.ccode 820.ccode
                      840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: L2.imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store lag2

. ivreg2 theta_mean l.theta_mean l3.imf_movingavg1 (l3.imfprogram_uu= l3.imf_ma
> xlog_liquidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.year i.
> ccode, robust 
Warning: time variable year has 21 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2531
                                                      F(146,  2384) =   824.17
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  2765.369894                Centered R2   =   0.9564
Total (uncentered) SS   =  4393.080209                Uncentered R2 =   0.9726
Residual SS             =  120.4942764                Root MSE      =    .2182

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |
             L3. |  -.3240604   .1033441    -3.14   0.002    -.5266111   -.1215
> 098
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8671901   .0169946    51.03   0.000     .8338812    .9004
> 989
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |
             L3. |   .2755612   .1285611     2.14   0.032      .023586    .5275
> 364
                 |
     e_migdppcln |    .005426   .0216701     0.25   0.802    -.0370465    .0478
> 986
     v2xcl_acjst |   .4928571   .1184607     4.16   0.000     .2606784    .7250
> 357
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0066342   .0111794    -0.59   0.553    -.0285453    .0152
> 769
         actotal |  -.0340441   .0044012    -7.74   0.000    -.0426703    -.025
> 418
                 |
            year |
           1978  |   .0044764   .0375847     0.12   0.905    -.0691883    .0781
> 411
           1979  |   .0477885   .0337208     1.42   0.156    -.0183031    .1138
> 801
           1980  |   .0975903   .0448715     2.17   0.030     .0096438    .1855
> 367
           1981  |   .0283337   .0315365     0.90   0.369    -.0334768    .0901
> 442
           1982  |   .0701695   .0322179     2.18   0.029     .0070236    .1333
> 153
           1983  |   .0759741   .0410527     1.85   0.064    -.0044878     .156
> 436
           1984  |   .0893736   .0376173     2.38   0.018     .0156451    .1631
> 021
           1985  |   .0946057   .0357351     2.65   0.008     .0245662    .1646
> 452
           1986  |   .1191786   .0344951     3.45   0.001     .0515695    .1867
> 877
           1987  |   .0971524   .0333601     2.91   0.004     .0317678     .162
> 537
           1988  |    .063306   .0373208     1.70   0.090    -.0098415    .1364
> 534
           1989  |   .0823545   .0397284     2.07   0.038     .0044883    .1602
> 206
           1990  |  -.0058641   .0699318    -0.08   0.933    -.1429279    .1311
> 997
           1991  |   .0605819   .0446793     1.36   0.175    -.0269879    .1481
> 518
           1992  |   .1201563   .0417275     2.88   0.004     .0383718    .2019
> 408
           1993  |   .0860572   .0407118     2.11   0.035     .0062636    .1658
> 508
           1994  |    .046303   .0387415     1.20   0.232     -.029629     .122
> 235
           1995  |   .1032856   .0396534     2.60   0.009     .0255664    .1810
> 048
           1996  |    .092398   .0381689     2.42   0.015     .0175884    .1672
> 076
           1997  |   .0557595   .0354481     1.57   0.116    -.0137174    .1252
> 364
           1998  |   .0812896   .0378581     2.15   0.032     .0070891      .15
> 549
           1999  |   .1240869   .0391515     3.17   0.002     .0473514    .2008
> 223
           2000  |   .1058933   .0376577     2.81   0.005     .0320855    .1797
> 011
           2001  |   .1150899   .0352295     3.27   0.001     .0460413    .1841
> 385
           2002  |   .1009139   .0382089     2.64   0.008     .0260258    .1758
> 019
           2003  |   .0508043   .0366656     1.39   0.166    -.0210589    .1226
> 675
           2004  |   .1198441   .0484144     2.48   0.013     .0249537    .2147
> 345
           2005  |   .0542603   .0392786     1.38   0.167    -.0227243     .131
> 245
           2006  |   .0602801   .0358679     1.68   0.093    -.0100196    .1305
> 798
           2007  |   .0626454   .0390678     1.60   0.109    -.0139261     .139
> 217
           2008  |   .0692532   .0409576     1.69   0.091    -.0110222    .1495
> 286
           2009  |   .0554121   .0433363     1.28   0.201    -.0295255    .1403
> 496
           2010  |   .0400283   .0424167     0.94   0.345    -.0431069    .1231
> 635
           2011  |  -.0231378   .0517691    -0.45   0.655    -.1246034    .0783
> 278
           2012  |   .0731518   .0359934     2.03   0.042     .0026061    .1436
> 975
           2013  |    .056861    .040967     1.39   0.165    -.0234328    .1371
> 548
           2014  |   .0175957   .0410027     0.43   0.668     -.062768    .0979
> 595
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.0367311    .078602    -0.47   0.640    -.1907883    .1173
> 261
             90  |  -.0649356   .0907466    -0.72   0.474    -.2427958    .1129
> 245
             91  |  -.3635038    .099573    -3.65   0.000    -.5586632   -.1683
> 444
             92  |  -.2478857   .1119503    -2.21   0.027    -.4673042   -.0284
> 671
             93  |   -.175286   .0715775    -2.45   0.014    -.3155753   -.0349
> 966
             95  |  -.0272926   .0575185    -0.47   0.635    -.1400268    .0854
> 416
            130  |  -.1255192   .0837775    -1.50   0.134    -.2897201    .0386
> 818
            135  |   .0737642   .0885504     0.83   0.405    -.0997914    .2473
> 197
            140  |  -.1968645     .07445    -2.64   0.008    -.3427838   -.0509
> 452
            145  |  -.0674029   .0895881    -0.75   0.452    -.2429923    .1081
> 865
            150  |   .0320713   .0690012     0.46   0.642    -.1031685    .1673
> 112
            155  |   .0453663   .0912132     0.50   0.619    -.1334082    .2241
> 409
            160  |   .2126906   .1241313     1.71   0.087    -.0306023    .4559
> 836
            165  |  -.0091863   .0777157    -0.12   0.906    -.1615064    .1431
> 337
            290  |   .1024647   .0918994     1.11   0.265    -.0776548    .2825
> 841
            310  |   .2175817   .1024789     2.12   0.034     .0167267    .4184
> 367
            339  |    .084339   .0706108     1.19   0.232    -.0540556    .2227
> 337
            346  |   .2822321   .1773919     1.59   0.112    -.0654497    .6299
> 139
            360  |   -.011408   .0814289    -0.14   0.889    -.1710058    .1481
> 897
            365  |  -.2348133   .0747129    -3.14   0.002    -.3812479   -.0883
> 786
            370  |  -.1944818    .090621    -2.15   0.032    -.3720957    -.016
> 868
            372  |  -.0583015   .0960944    -0.61   0.544    -.2466431    .1300
> 401
            373  |   .2365511   .0808312     2.93   0.003     .0781248    .3949
> 773
            402  |   .0295533   .0857434     0.34   0.730    -.1385006    .1976
> 072
            404  |   .1138717   .0854765     1.33   0.183    -.0536591    .2814
> 025
            411  |   .1223453   .0882688     1.39   0.166    -.0506583    .2953
> 489
            420  |  -.0042648   .0770875    -0.06   0.956    -.1553536    .1468
> 239
            432  |  -.1460545   .0955184    -1.53   0.126     -.333267    .0411
> 581
            433  |  -.1138387   .0866833    -1.31   0.189    -.2837349    .0560
> 574
            434  |   .0541035    .139865     0.39   0.699    -.2200269    .3282
> 339
            435  |  -.0020885    .081905    -0.03   0.980    -.1626192    .1584
> 423
            436  |    .008213   .0890649     0.09   0.927     -.166351     .182
> 777
            437  |   .0344185   .0792267     0.43   0.664     -.120863    .1897
> 001
            438  |   .1605933   .0863744     1.86   0.063    -.0086974    .3298
> 839
            439  |   .0025823   .0872863     0.03   0.976    -.1684957    .1736
> 603
            450  |  -.1430671   .0866134    -1.65   0.099    -.3128261     .026
> 692
            451  |   .0993181   .0934685     1.06   0.288    -.0838767    .2825
> 129
            452  |   .2374235   .1003937     2.36   0.018     .0406554    .4341
> 915
            461  |   .0431744   .0780745     0.55   0.580    -.1098488    .1961
> 976
            471  |  -.0263258   .0815311    -0.32   0.747    -.1861239    .1334
> 723
            475  |  -.1984082   .0926453    -2.14   0.032    -.3799897   -.0168
> 268
            481  |   .0550712   .0764805     0.72   0.471    -.0948278    .2049
> 702
            482  |   .0776166   .0850034     0.91   0.361    -.0889869    .2442
> 202
            483  |   .1009174   .0850311     1.19   0.235    -.0657404    .2675
> 753
            484  |   .1890414   .0854476     2.21   0.027     .0215671    .3565
> 157
            490  |  -.0361747   .0786259    -0.46   0.645    -.1902786    .1179
> 293
            500  |  -.1929731   .0874415    -2.21   0.027    -.3643553   -.0215
> 909
            501  |   .0345559    .063346     0.55   0.585       -.0896    .1587
> 118
            510  |  -.0302585   .0766632    -0.39   0.693    -.1805155    .1199
> 986
            516  |  -.2410183   .1078989    -2.23   0.026    -.4524962   -.0295
> 404
            517  |  -.0986987   .1055489    -0.94   0.350    -.3055707    .1081
> 733
            522  |   .0368635   .0831303     0.44   0.657     -.126069    .1997
> 959
            530  |   .0162493   .0848493     0.19   0.848    -.1500523    .1825
> 508
            540  |   .0062133   .0833161     0.07   0.941    -.1570833    .1695
> 098
            541  |  -.0211612   .0767603    -0.28   0.783    -.1716087    .1292
> 863
            551  |  -.0820202   .0717193    -1.14   0.253    -.2225874    .0585
> 471
            552  |  -.1272073   .0673293    -1.89   0.059    -.2591702    .0047
> 557
            553  |   .0836975   .0857035     0.98   0.329    -.0842783    .2516
> 733
            560  |  -.2108626   .0806192    -2.62   0.009    -.3688733   -.0528
> 519
            565  |  -.1467439   .1070926    -1.37   0.171    -.3566416    .0631
> 538
            570  |   .0059419   .0854853     0.07   0.945    -.1616063    .1734
> 901
            571  |  -.0140612   .0920656    -0.15   0.879    -.1945065    .1663
> 842
            572  |  -.0129361   .0805083    -0.16   0.872    -.1707294    .1448
> 573
            580  |   .1029233   .0752088     1.37   0.171    -.0444834    .2503
> 299
            581  |   .0468674   .0752027     0.62   0.533    -.1005272     .194
> 262
            600  |  -.2309741   .0881548    -2.62   0.009    -.4037542   -.0581
> 939
            615  |  -.1154066    .089632    -1.29   0.198     -.291082    .0602
> 689
            616  |  -.2341614   .0877382    -2.67   0.008    -.4061251   -.0621
> 977
            620  |  -.0872307   .0856824    -1.02   0.309    -.2551652    .0807
> 038
            625  |  -.1061289   .0618404    -1.72   0.086    -.2273339    .0150
> 761
            630  |  -.0707248   .0829524    -0.85   0.394    -.2333085    .0918
> 589
            645  |   .1028191   .0939154     1.09   0.274    -.0812517    .2868
> 899
            651  |  -.2189347   .0742403    -2.95   0.003     -.364443   -.0734
> 263
            652  |  -.0465902   .0801293    -0.58   0.561    -.2036407    .1104
> 603
            660  |   -.024011   .0790553    -0.30   0.761    -.1789565    .1309
> 345
            663  |  -.0634134   .0795732    -0.80   0.425    -.2193741    .0925
> 472
            670  |   .0252703   .0815573     0.31   0.757    -.1345789    .1851
> 196
            679  |  -.0282844   .0733485    -0.39   0.700    -.1720448     .115
> 476
            690  |   -.147239   .1153647    -1.28   0.202    -.3733498    .0788
> 717
            694  |   .0705939   .1011586     0.70   0.485    -.1276733    .2688
> 612
            698  |  -.0235922   .0935337    -0.25   0.801    -.2069149    .1597
> 305
            700  |  -.0809175   .0888385    -0.91   0.362    -.2550378    .0932
> 027
            701  |   .1064289   .0803024     1.33   0.185     -.050961    .2638
> 188
            702  |   .1677678   .0795148     2.11   0.035     .0119217    .3236
> 138
            703  |  -.0554826   .0609512    -0.91   0.363    -.1749447    .0639
> 795
            704  |   -.024417   .0706673    -0.35   0.730    -.1629224    .1140
> 885
            705  |  -.2377652   .0863564    -2.75   0.006    -.4070205   -.0685
> 098
            710  |  -.1267408   .0769263    -1.65   0.099    -.2775136    .0240
> 319
            732  |  -.2087792   .0812572    -2.57   0.010    -.3680403   -.0495
> 181
            760  |   .0231495    .136525     0.17   0.865    -.2444345    .2907
> 335
            770  |   .0369316   .0647256     0.57   0.568    -.0899282    .1637
> 915
            771  |   .0300136   .0943475     0.32   0.750    -.1549041    .2149
> 314
            775  |  -.0597747   .0580902    -1.03   0.303    -.1736294      .05
> 408
            780  |  -.1844284   .1189091    -1.55   0.121    -.4174859    .0486
> 292
            790  |   .0459168   .0972144     0.47   0.637    -.1446199    .2364
> 535
            800  |  -.1313872   .0905206    -1.45   0.147    -.3088044    .0460
> 299
            811  |   .1159638   .0810101     1.43   0.152     -.042813    .2747
> 406
            812  |    .220222   .0836391     2.63   0.008     .0562924    .3841
> 515
            816  |   .1275339   .0775847     1.64   0.100    -.0245294    .2795
> 972
            820  |  -.0652739   .0824604    -0.79   0.429    -.2268934    .0963
> 455
            840  |   .0934957   .0700328     1.34   0.182     -.043766    .2307
> 575
            850  |  -.1240485   .0696023    -1.78   0.075    -.2604665    .0123
> 695
                 |
           _cons |  -.3189053   .1836868    -1.74   0.083    -.6789248    .0411
> 143
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             43.040
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               37.541
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         39.419
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         L3.imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean L3.imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal 1978.year 1979.year 1980.year
                      1981.year 1982.year 1983.year 1984.year 1985.year
                      1986.year 1987.year 1988.year 1989.year 1990.year
                      1991.year 1992.year 1993.year 1994.year 1995.year
                      1996.year 1997.year 1998.year 1999.year 2000.year
                      2001.year 2002.year 2003.year 2004.year 2005.year
                      2006.year 2007.year 2008.year 2009.year 2010.year
                      2011.year 2012.year 2013.year 2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode
                      91.ccode 92.ccode 93.ccode 95.ccode 130.ccode 135.ccode
                      140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccode 155.ccode 160.ccode
                      165.ccode 290.ccode 310.ccode 339.ccode 346.ccode
                      360.ccode 365.ccode 370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode
                      402.ccode 404.ccode 411.ccode 420.ccode 432.ccode
                      433.ccode 434.ccode 435.ccode 436.ccode 437.ccode
                      438.ccode 439.ccode 450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode
                      461.ccode 471.ccode 475.ccode 481.ccode 482.ccode
                      483.ccode 484.ccode 490.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode
                      510.ccode 516.ccode 517.ccode 522.ccode 530.ccode
                      540.ccode 541.ccode 551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode
                      560.ccode 565.ccode 570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode
                      580.ccode 581.ccode 600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode
                      620.ccode 625.ccode 630.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode
                      652.ccode 660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode
                      690.ccode 694.ccode 698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode
                      702.ccode 703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode
                      732.ccode 760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode 775.ccode
                      780.ccode 790.ccode 800.ccode 811.ccode 812.ccode
                      816.ccode 820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: L3.imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store lag3

. ivreg2 theta_mean l.theta_mean l4.imf_movingavg1 (l4.imfprogram_uu= l4.imf_ma
> xlog_liquidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.year i.
> ccode, robust 
Warning: time variable year has 21 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2416
                                                      F(144,  2271) =   753.31
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  2623.312198                Centered R2   =   0.9559
Total (uncentered) SS   =  4148.974892                Uncentered R2 =   0.9721
Residual SS             =  115.6402603                Root MSE      =    .2188

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |
             L4. |  -.3271164   .1050984    -3.11   0.002    -.5331056   -.1211
> 273
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8654134   .0182361    47.46   0.000     .8296713    .9011
> 555
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |
             L4. |   .2941976   .1379457     2.13   0.033      .023829    .5645
> 663
                 |
     e_migdppcln |   .0109329   .0221562     0.49   0.622    -.0324925    .0543
> 583
     v2xcl_acjst |   .5218881   .1224165     4.26   0.000     .2819561    .7618
> 201
v2exl_legitideol |   -.005677   .0123698    -0.46   0.646    -.0299214    .0185
> 674
         actotal |  -.0328571   .0044624    -7.36   0.000    -.0416034   -.0241
> 109
                 |
            year |
           1979  |   .0277702   .0354055     0.78   0.433    -.0416234    .0971
> 638
           1980  |   .0743193   .0441076     1.68   0.092    -.0121301    .1607
> 687
           1981  |   .0487956   .0385534     1.27   0.206    -.0267677    .1243
> 589
           1982  |   .0394591   .0348731     1.13   0.258     -.028891    .1078
> 092
           1983  |   .0515362   .0406875     1.27   0.205    -.0282098    .1312
> 822
           1984  |   .0789205   .0402305     1.96   0.050     .0000702    .1577
> 708
           1985  |   .1028924    .041237     2.50   0.013     .0220694    .1837
> 154
           1986  |   .1130299   .0389315     2.90   0.004     .0367255    .1893
> 343
           1987  |   .1084192    .039246     2.76   0.006     .0314985    .1853
> 399
           1988  |   .0643735    .041959     1.53   0.125    -.0178645    .1466
> 115
           1989  |   .0539736   .0405401     1.33   0.183    -.0254836    .1334
> 308
           1990  |  -.0212277   .0699603    -0.30   0.762    -.1583473    .1158
> 919
           1991  |   .0448153   .0492161     0.91   0.363    -.0516466    .1412
> 771
           1992  |   .1173188   .0460207     2.55   0.011     .0271199    .2075
> 177
           1993  |   .0898328   .0470804     1.91   0.056    -.0024431    .1821
> 087
           1994  |   .0568959   .0436412     1.30   0.192    -.0286393    .1424
> 311
           1995  |    .113221   .0456168     2.48   0.013     .0238138    .2026
> 282
           1996  |   .0994244   .0425666     2.34   0.020     .0159953    .1828
> 535
           1997  |   .0329591   .0404145     0.82   0.415    -.0462518      .11
> 217
           1998  |   .0517146   .0414595     1.25   0.212    -.0295445    .1329
> 736
           1999  |   .1051549   .0434047     2.42   0.015     .0200834    .1902
> 265
           2000  |   .1136573   .0452683     2.51   0.012     .0249332    .2023
> 815
           2001  |   .1106896   .0401272     2.76   0.006     .0320418    .1893
> 374
           2002  |   .1119363   .0441231     2.54   0.011     .0254567     .198
> 416
           2003  |   .0726167   .0413642     1.76   0.079    -.0084556    .1536
> 891
           2004  |   .0868568    .052733     1.65   0.100     -.016498    .1902
> 116
           2005  |   .0543851   .0441032     1.23   0.218    -.0320556    .1408
> 259
           2006  |     .06411   .0411973     1.56   0.120    -.0166352    .1448
> 552
           2007  |   .0574677   .0443776     1.29   0.195    -.0295109    .1444
> 462
           2008  |   .0755478   .0441095     1.71   0.087    -.0109052    .1620
> 008
           2009  |   .0448119   .0469155     0.96   0.339    -.0471408    .1367
> 646
           2010  |   .0305564   .0471384     0.65   0.517    -.0618331     .122
> 946
           2011  |  -.0306444   .0557964    -0.55   0.583    -.1400033    .0787
> 145
           2012  |   .0218781    .045462     0.48   0.630    -.0672257     .110
> 982
           2013  |   .0589903   .0457318     1.29   0.197    -.0306424     .148
> 623
           2014  |   .0366753   .0438442     0.84   0.403    -.0492578    .1226
> 084
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.0371482   .0805542    -0.46   0.645    -.1950317    .1207
> 352
             90  |  -.1020718   .0934875    -1.09   0.275    -.2853039    .0811
> 604
             91  |  -.4519632   .0910084    -4.97   0.000    -.6303363   -.2735
> 901
             92  |  -.2630125   .0954249    -2.76   0.006    -.4500419   -.0759
> 831
             93  |  -.1854444   .0708376    -2.62   0.009    -.3242835   -.0466
> 054
             95  |  -.0409343   .0576988    -0.71   0.478    -.1540219    .0721
> 533
            130  |   -.120792   .0864989    -1.40   0.163    -.2903268    .0487
> 428
            135  |   .0707112   .0997669     0.71   0.478    -.1248283    .2662
> 506
            140  |  -.1974747   .0737264    -2.68   0.007    -.3419758   -.0529
> 736
            145  |  -.0116818   .1871264    -0.06   0.950    -.3784428    .3550
> 793
            150  |   .0492012    .070889     0.69   0.488    -.0897387    .1881
> 412
            155  |   .0049123   .0851641     0.06   0.954    -.1620062    .1718
> 309
            160  |   .2938358   .1586615     1.85   0.064     -.017135    .6048
> 066
            165  |   .0072555   .0696557     0.10   0.917    -.1292672    .1437
> 782
            310  |   .2431952   .1231068     1.98   0.048     .0019103      .48
> 448
            339  |   .1032666   .0734467     1.41   0.160    -.0406863    .2472
> 196
            346  |   .3000655   .1704724     1.76   0.078    -.0340543    .6341
> 854
            360  |  -.0026974   .0876031    -0.03   0.975    -.1743963    .1690
> 016
            365  |   -.222513   .0747394    -2.98   0.003    -.3689995   -.0760
> 264
            370  |  -.1843681   .0868646    -2.12   0.034    -.3546195   -.0141
> 166
            372  |  -.0345912   .1056432    -0.33   0.743    -.2416481    .1724
> 657
            373  |    .225858   .0794323     2.84   0.004     .0701736    .3815
> 424
            402  |    .047246   .0861417     0.55   0.583    -.1215887    .2160
> 807
            404  |   .1127469   .0933827     1.21   0.227    -.0702799    .2957
> 736
            411  |   .1288528   .0869381     1.48   0.138    -.0415427    .2992
> 483
            420  |  -.0093245   .0775257    -0.12   0.904     -.161272     .142
> 623
            432  |   -.135324   .0926681    -1.46   0.144    -.3169502    .0463
> 022
            433  |  -.1317864   .0918961    -1.43   0.152    -.3118995    .0483
> 267
            434  |   .0679548   .1501246     0.45   0.651    -.2262841    .3621
> 937
            435  |  -.0174424   .0847437    -0.21   0.837     -.183537    .1486
> 523
            436  |   .0033175   .0930463     0.04   0.972    -.1790499    .1856
> 848
            437  |   .0349753   .0801191     0.44   0.662    -.1220552    .1920
> 059
            438  |   .1796947   .0885645     2.03   0.042     .0061114     .353
> 278
            439  |   .0030324   .0912403     0.03   0.973    -.1757954    .1818
> 601
            450  |  -.1404029   .0854955    -1.64   0.101     -.307971    .0271
> 653
            451  |   .1147423   .0967503     1.19   0.236    -.0748847    .3043
> 694
            452  |   .2398865   .1035615     2.32   0.021     .0369096    .4428
> 633
            461  |   .0461075   .0793766     0.58   0.561    -.1094678    .2016
> 828
            471  |  -.0201387    .086787    -0.23   0.817    -.1902381    .1499
> 608
            475  |  -.2114579   .1005877    -2.10   0.036    -.4086062   -.0143
> 096
            481  |    .049459   .0771874     0.64   0.522    -.1018255    .2007
> 435
            482  |   .0955622   .0876956     1.09   0.276     -.076318    .2674
> 424
            483  |   .1183567   .0929465     1.27   0.203    -.0638152    .3005
> 285
            484  |    .187589   .0871509     2.15   0.031     .0167763    .3584
> 016
            490  |  -.0028968   .0746551    -0.04   0.969     -.149218    .1434
> 245
            500  |  -.1907448   .0900803    -2.12   0.034    -.3672989   -.0141
> 906
            501  |   .0320047   .0664825     0.48   0.630    -.0982987    .1623
> 081
            510  |  -.0216345   .0795541    -0.27   0.786    -.1775577    .1342
> 886
            516  |  -.2561155    .109663    -2.34   0.020     -.471051   -.0411
> 799
            517  |   -.097536   .1105049    -0.88   0.377    -.3141216    .1190
> 495
            522  |   .0415902   .0860152     0.48   0.629    -.1269966    .2101
> 769
            530  |   .0259219   .0903813     0.29   0.774    -.1512223     .203
> 066
            540  |   .0024863    .084172     0.03   0.976    -.1624878    .1674
> 604
            541  |  -.0139443   .0794969    -0.18   0.861    -.1697553    .1418
> 667
            551  |  -.0902281   .0746148    -1.21   0.227    -.2364705    .0560
> 143
            552  |   -.105176   .0669844    -1.57   0.116    -.2364631     .026
> 111
            553  |   .0892966   .0921039     0.97   0.332    -.0912237    .2698
> 169
            560  |  -.2223369   .0828028    -2.69   0.007    -.3846274   -.0600
> 463
            565  |  -.1612125   .1077648    -1.50   0.135    -.3724277    .0500
> 027
            570  |   .0122301   .0888718     0.14   0.891    -.1619555    .1864
> 157
            571  |  -.0221727   .0907635    -0.24   0.807    -.2000658    .1557
> 204
            572  |   -.013491     .08148    -0.17   0.868     -.173189    .1462
> 069
            580  |   .1217886   .0832353     1.46   0.143    -.0413496    .2849
> 269
            581  |   .0533489    .075386     0.71   0.479     -.094405    .2011
> 028
            600  |  -.2507306   .0892875    -2.81   0.005    -.4257309   -.0757
> 304
            615  |   -.128265   .0933082    -1.37   0.169    -.3111457    .0546
> 157
            616  |  -.2431785   .0874561    -2.78   0.005    -.4145893   -.0717
> 677
            620  |  -.0898206   .0852702    -1.05   0.292    -.2569471    .0773
> 059
            625  |  -.1136527   .0605528    -1.88   0.061     -.232334    .0050
> 286
            630  |  -.0682286   .0856269    -0.80   0.426    -.2360543     .099
> 597
            645  |   .0917105   .0966542     0.95   0.343    -.0977283    .2811
> 492
            651  |  -.2230199   .0744081    -3.00   0.003    -.3688571   -.0771
> 827
            652  |  -.0383189   .0828207    -0.46   0.644    -.2006446    .1240
> 068
            660  |  -.0312223   .0789093    -0.40   0.692    -.1858817    .1234
> 371
            663  |  -.0632035   .0811512    -0.78   0.436    -.2222569    .0958
> 499
            670  |   .0240169   .0818994     0.29   0.769    -.1365031    .1845
> 368
            679  |  -.0303083   .0745884    -0.41   0.684    -.1764988    .1158
> 823
            690  |  -.1674827   .1151372    -1.45   0.146    -.3931474     .058
> 182
            694  |   .0574877   .0998311     0.58   0.565    -.1381776     .253
> 153
            698  |  -.0295195   .0924908    -0.32   0.750    -.2107982    .1517
> 592
            700  |  -.0801086   .0893969    -0.90   0.370    -.2553234    .0951
> 062
            701  |   .1258122   .0816384     1.54   0.123    -.0341961    .2858
> 204
            702  |    .167309   .0841765     1.99   0.047     .0023261    .3322
> 919
            703  |  -.0631132   .0626734    -1.01   0.314    -.1859507    .0597
> 244
            704  |  -.0106228   .0681685    -0.16   0.876    -.1442305     .122
> 985
            705  |  -.2449702   .0873458    -2.80   0.005    -.4161649   -.0737
> 756
            710  |  -.1345102   .0813084    -1.65   0.098    -.2938717    .0248
> 513
            732  |  -.2403947   .0848241    -2.83   0.005    -.4066468   -.0741
> 426
            760  |   .0514294   .1385736     0.37   0.711    -.2201698    .3230
> 287
            770  |   .0628961   .0664614     0.95   0.344    -.0673658    .1931
> 579
            771  |   .0179806   .0994015     0.18   0.856    -.1768427    .2128
> 039
            775  |  -.0562311   .0590034    -0.95   0.341    -.1718756    .0594
> 134
            780  |  -.2278556   .1273286    -1.79   0.074    -.4774151    .0217
> 039
            790  |   .0596887   .1016754     0.59   0.557    -.1395914    .2589
> 687
            800  |  -.1587234   .0914968    -1.73   0.083    -.3380539    .0206
> 071
            811  |   .1242207   .0834677     1.49   0.137     -.039373    .2878
> 143
            812  |   .2413286   .0866011     2.79   0.005     .0715937    .4110
> 636
            816  |   .1360458   .0797434     1.71   0.088    -.0202484      .29
> 234
            820  |  -.0672417   .0823124    -0.82   0.414     -.228571    .0940
> 877
            840  |   .1017804   .0627168     1.62   0.105    -.0211423    .2247
> 031
            850  |  -.1357785   .0687699    -1.97   0.048     -.270565    -.000
> 992
                 |
           _cons |  -.3779402   .1898335    -1.99   0.046     -.750007   -.0058
> 734
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             38.760
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               33.071
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         34.822
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         L4.imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean L4.imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal 1979.year 1980.year 1981.year
                      1982.year 1983.year 1984.year 1985.year 1986.year
                      1987.year 1988.year 1989.year 1990.year 1991.year
                      1992.year 1993.year 1994.year 1995.year 1996.year
                      1997.year 1998.year 1999.year 2000.year 2001.year
                      2002.year 2003.year 2004.year 2005.year 2006.year
                      2007.year 2008.year 2009.year 2010.year 2011.year
                      2012.year 2013.year 2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode
                      92.ccode 93.ccode 95.ccode 130.ccode 135.ccode 140.ccode
                      145.ccode 150.ccode 155.ccode 160.ccode 165.ccode
                      310.ccode 339.ccode 346.ccode 360.ccode 365.ccode
                      370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode 404.ccode
                      411.ccode 420.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode
                      435.ccode 436.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode 439.ccode
                      450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode 471.ccode
                      475.ccode 481.ccode 482.ccode 483.ccode 484.ccode
                      490.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode 510.ccode 516.ccode
                      517.ccode 522.ccode 530.ccode 540.ccode 541.ccode
                      551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode 565.ccode
                      570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode 580.ccode 581.ccode
                      600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode 625.ccode
                      630.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode 652.ccode 660.ccode
                      663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode 690.ccode 694.ccode
                      698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode 702.ccode 703.ccode
                      704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode 732.ccode 760.ccode
                      770.ccode 771.ccode 775.ccode 780.ccode 790.ccode
                      800.ccode 811.ccode 812.ccode 816.ccode 820.ccode
                      840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: L4.imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store lag4

. ivreg2 theta_mean l.theta_mean l5.imf_movingavg1 (l5.imfprogram_uu= l5.imf_ma
> xlog_liquidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.year i.
> ccode, robust 
Warning: time variable year has 19 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2305
                                                      F(142,  2162) =  1435.34
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  2495.598087                Centered R2   =   0.9599
Total (uncentered) SS   =  3919.913791                Uncentered R2 =   0.9745
Residual SS             =  100.1280636                Root MSE      =    .2084

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |
             L5. |  -.2823772   .0983816    -2.87   0.004    -.4752015   -.0895
> 529
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8689033   .0179471    48.41   0.000     .8337277    .9040
> 789
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |
             L5. |   .2715469   .1334051     2.04   0.042     .0100776    .5330
> 161
                 |
     e_migdppcln |   .0137978   .0227614     0.61   0.544    -.0308139    .0584
> 094
     v2xcl_acjst |   .5564498   .1199016     4.64   0.000      .321447    .7914
> 526
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0107473     .01261    -0.85   0.394    -.0354624    .0139
> 678
         actotal |  -.0308425   .0042196    -7.31   0.000    -.0391129   -.0225
> 722
                 |
            year |
           1980  |   .0393994   .0405656     0.97   0.331    -.0401076    .1189
> 064
           1981  |   .0102077   .0302169     0.34   0.736    -.0490162    .0694
> 317
           1982  |   .0359244   .0323302     1.11   0.266    -.0274416    .0992
> 905
           1983  |   .0056312   .0331112     0.17   0.865    -.0592656     .070
> 528
           1984  |   .0315982   .0305257     1.04   0.301     -.028231    .0914
> 274
           1985  |   .0676794   .0328437     2.06   0.039     .0033069    .1320
> 519
           1986  |   .0913531   .0332964     2.74   0.006     .0260933    .1566
> 129
           1987  |   .0770568   .0316171     2.44   0.015     .0150884    .1390
> 251
           1988  |   .0436567   .0375548     1.16   0.245    -.0299492    .1172
> 627
           1989  |   .0314272   .0357455     0.88   0.379    -.0386326     .101
> 487
           1990  |  -.0743268   .0627994    -1.18   0.237    -.1974115    .0487
> 578
           1991  |   .0011875   .0413729     0.03   0.977    -.0799018    .0822
> 769
           1992  |   .0721262   .0393173     1.83   0.067    -.0049343    .1491
> 867
           1993  |   .0513069   .0409298     1.25   0.210     -.028914    .1315
> 277
           1994  |   .0351664   .0386557     0.91   0.363    -.0405975    .1109
> 302
           1995  |   .0931396   .0420719     2.21   0.027     .0106802    .1755
> 989
           1996  |   .0644175   .0353214     1.82   0.068    -.0048111    .1336
> 462
           1997  |   .0141433   .0318028     0.44   0.657    -.0481892    .0764
> 757
           1998  |   .0053308   .0350298     0.15   0.879    -.0633263     .073
> 988
           1999  |   .0520639   .0324903     1.60   0.109     -.011616    .1157
> 438
           2000  |   .0667071    .035948     1.86   0.064    -.0037496    .1371
> 638
           2001  |   .0914138   .0338802     2.70   0.007       .02501    .1578
> 177
           2002  |   .0790006   .0347695     2.27   0.023     .0108537    .1471
> 476
           2003  |   .0557639   .0330274     1.69   0.091    -.0089686    .1204
> 963
           2004  |   .0789867   .0474101     1.67   0.096    -.0139354    .1719
> 088
           2005  |  -.0030595   .0374069    -0.08   0.935    -.0763757    .0702
> 568
           2006  |   .0347964   .0319068     1.09   0.275    -.0277399    .0973
> 326
           2007  |   .0319638   .0348993     0.92   0.360    -.0364376    .1003
> 651
           2008  |   .0461152   .0358729     1.29   0.199    -.0241943    .1164
> 247
           2009  |   .0288475   .0339061     0.85   0.395    -.0376071    .0953
> 022
           2010  |   .0021781   .0372249     0.06   0.953    -.0707814    .0751
> 375
           2011  |  -.0641061   .0475378    -1.35   0.177    -.1572784    .0290
> 662
           2012  |  -.0104421    .035499    -0.29   0.769    -.0800188    .0591
> 346
           2013  |  -.0175175    .038901    -0.45   0.652    -.0937621     .058
> 727
           2014  |   .0108144   .0339018     0.32   0.750    -.0556319    .0772
> 607
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.0523106    .083032    -0.63   0.529    -.2150503    .1104
> 292
             90  |  -.0910125   .0757064    -1.20   0.229    -.2393944    .0573
> 694
             91  |  -.4326128   .1001438    -4.32   0.000    -.6288912   -.2363
> 345
             92  |  -.1950193   .0941601    -2.07   0.038    -.3795698   -.0104
> 688
             93  |  -.1774886   .0665835    -2.67   0.008    -.3079898   -.0469
> 873
             95  |  -.0679876    .061629    -1.10   0.270    -.1887782    .0528
> 029
            135  |   .0810974   .0958791     0.85   0.398    -.1068222    .2690
> 171
            140  |  -.1828361   .0755768    -2.42   0.016    -.3309639   -.0347
> 083
            145  |  -.2422894   .0595093    -4.07   0.000    -.3589254   -.1256
> 534
            150  |   .0764962   .0725262     1.05   0.292    -.0656525     .218
> 645
            155  |  -.0035651   .0826897    -0.04   0.966    -.1656339    .1585
> 037
            160  |   .4012535   .2044151     1.96   0.050     .0006073    .8018
> 996
            165  |   .0093317   .0709648     0.13   0.895    -.1297568    .1484
> 202
            310  |   .2732455   .1255836     2.18   0.030     .0271061    .5193
> 849
            339  |   .1502426    .074861     2.01   0.045     .0035177    .2969
> 675
            346  |   .1557036   .1064587     1.46   0.144    -.0529515    .3643
> 588
            360  |   .0331908   .0862411     0.38   0.700    -.1358387    .2022
> 203
            365  |  -.1995002   .0739497    -2.70   0.007     -.344439   -.0545
> 614
            370  |  -.1649724    .086892    -1.90   0.058    -.3352776    .0053
> 327
            372  |   -.059205   .1051023    -0.56   0.573    -.2652018    .1467
> 917
            373  |   .2064309   .0808104     2.55   0.011     .0480454    .3648
> 164
            402  |   .0442712   .0900744     0.49   0.623    -.1322714    .2208
> 138
            404  |     .10539   .0935405     1.13   0.260    -.0779459     .288
> 726
            411  |   .1408743   .0896138     1.57   0.116    -.0347655     .316
> 514
            420  |  -.0376941   .0776621    -0.49   0.627    -.1899089    .1145
> 208
            432  |  -.1389494   .0905061    -1.54   0.125     -.316338    .0384
> 393
            433  |  -.1695474   .0951394    -1.78   0.075    -.3560172    .0169
> 225
            434  |   .0905886   .1626777     0.56   0.578    -.2282539    .4094
> 311
            435  |  -.0311069   .0887613    -0.35   0.726    -.2050758    .1428
> 621
            436  |  -.0153278   .0916416    -0.17   0.867    -.1949421    .1642
> 864
            437  |   .0061694   .0773661     0.08   0.936    -.1454654    .1578
> 041
            438  |   .1714806   .0882419     1.94   0.052    -.0014703    .3444
> 315
            439  |  -.0201236   .0926777    -0.22   0.828    -.2017687    .1615
> 214
            450  |  -.1247627   .0893588    -1.40   0.163    -.2999027    .0503
> 772
            451  |    .091459   .0931712     0.98   0.326    -.0911533    .2740
> 713
            452  |   .2241377   .1053582     2.13   0.033     .0176394    .4306
> 359
            461  |   .0327422   .0793382     0.41   0.680    -.1227578    .1882
> 422
            471  |  -.0253117   .0893751    -0.28   0.777    -.2004836    .1498
> 602
            475  |  -.2423729   .1064649    -2.28   0.023    -.4510403   -.0337
> 056
            481  |   .0187864   .0791761     0.24   0.812     -.136396    .1739
> 688
            482  |    .100081   .0873959     1.15   0.252    -.0712118    .2713
> 737
            483  |    .122885   .0926822     1.33   0.185    -.0587687    .3045
> 388
            484  |   .1725958   .0910137     1.90   0.058    -.0057877    .3509
> 793
            490  |   .0004378   .0737249     0.01   0.995    -.1440604    .1449
> 359
            500  |  -.1963464   .0928362    -2.11   0.034    -.3783021   -.0143
> 908
            501  |   .0211471   .0683421     0.31   0.757    -.1128009    .1550
> 952
            510  |  -.0449245   .0818983    -0.55   0.583    -.2054423    .1155
> 932
            516  |  -.2644117   .1111656    -2.38   0.017    -.4822923    -.046
> 531
            517  |  -.1082863   .1131496    -0.96   0.339    -.3300555    .1134
> 828
            522  |    .033716    .088456     0.38   0.703    -.1396547    .2070
> 867
            530  |   .0242255   .0926684     0.26   0.794    -.1574011    .2058
> 522
            540  |    .000836   .0834346     0.01   0.992    -.1626927    .1643
> 648
            541  |  -.0431548   .0819715    -0.53   0.599    -.2038161    .1175
> 065
            551  |  -.0992375   .0758228    -1.31   0.191    -.2478475    .0493
> 726
            552  |  -.0790326   .0658649    -1.20   0.230    -.2081254    .0500
> 602
            553  |   .0682745   .0979863     0.70   0.486     -.123775    .2603
> 241
            560  |  -.2220933   .0858598    -2.59   0.010    -.3903755   -.0538
> 111
            565  |  -.1745551   .1086124    -1.61   0.108    -.3874315    .0383
> 214
            570  |  -.0125764   .0897181    -0.14   0.889    -.1884205    .1632
> 678
            571  |  -.0439716   .0900571    -0.49   0.625    -.2204802    .1325
> 371
            572  |   .0003329   .0832755     0.00   0.997     -.162884    .1635
> 498
            580  |   .1248212   .0911235     1.37   0.171    -.0537775    .3034
> 199
            581  |   .0670642   .0773496     0.87   0.386    -.0845382    .2186
> 667
            600  |  -.2680714   .0899034    -2.98   0.003    -.4442789    -.091
> 864
            615  |  -.1326852   .0961597    -1.38   0.168    -.3211548    .0557
> 844
            616  |  -.2501725   .0876006    -2.86   0.004    -.4218665   -.0784
> 784
            620  |  -.0711528   .0900859    -0.79   0.430    -.2477179    .1054
> 122
            625  |  -.0873149   .0620982    -1.41   0.160    -.2090252    .0343
> 954
            630  |  -.0386244   .0883933    -0.44   0.662     -.211872    .1346
> 233
            645  |   .0938194   .0953539     0.98   0.325    -.0930707    .2807
> 096
            651  |  -.2309773   .0756686    -3.05   0.002     -.379285   -.0826
> 696
            652  |  -.0061791   .0864356    -0.07   0.943    -.1755897    .1632
> 316
            660  |  -.0339791   .0798625    -0.43   0.670    -.1905068    .1225
> 486
            663  |  -.0787466   .0827738    -0.95   0.341    -.2409803    .0834
> 872
            670  |   .0438778   .0846194     0.52   0.604    -.1219732    .2097
> 287
            679  |  -.0323925   .0769489    -0.42   0.674    -.1832095    .1184
> 244
            690  |  -.1815003   .1165152    -1.56   0.119    -.4098658    .0468
> 653
            694  |   .0502507   .1009962     0.50   0.619    -.1476983    .2481
> 996
            698  |   -.025273   .0924836    -0.27   0.785    -.2065374    .1559
> 915
            700  |  -.0311434   .0719964    -0.43   0.665    -.1722538     .109
> 967
            701  |   .1607322   .0840561     1.91   0.056    -.0040148    .3254
> 791
            702  |   .1622204    .085709     1.89   0.058    -.0057661    .3302
> 069
            703  |  -.0819157   .0641337    -1.28   0.202    -.2076153     .043
> 784
            704  |   .0106586   .0678295     0.16   0.875    -.1222849     .143
> 602
            705  |  -.2360634   .0846993    -2.79   0.005     -.402071   -.0700
> 557
            710  |  -.1198081   .0821431    -1.46   0.145    -.2808057    .0411
> 895
            732  |  -.2724739   .0794895    -3.43   0.001    -.4282705   -.1166
> 773
            760  |   .0824962   .1387718     0.59   0.552    -.1894915    .3544
> 838
            770  |   .0544635   .0694517     0.78   0.433    -.0816594    .1905
> 863
            771  |  -.0165158   .1012097    -0.16   0.870    -.2148832    .1818
> 517
            775  |  -.0283079    .059718    -0.47   0.635    -.1453529    .0887
> 372
            780  |  -.2549165   .1311606    -1.94   0.052    -.5119865    .0021
> 535
            790  |   .0574346   .0903215     0.64   0.525    -.1195922    .2344
> 615
            800  |  -.1320819   .0918411    -1.44   0.150    -.3120872    .0479
> 234
            811  |    .126108   .0841119     1.50   0.134    -.0387484    .2909
> 643
            812  |   .2641655   .0884703     2.99   0.003     .0907669    .4375
> 641
            816  |   .1482535   .0818861     1.81   0.070    -.0122402    .3087
> 473
            820  |  -.0502997   .0834409    -0.60   0.547    -.2138409    .1132
> 414
            840  |   .0957119   .0658514     1.45   0.146    -.0333545    .2247
> 783
            850  |  -.1255667   .0697796    -1.80   0.072    -.2623322    .0111
> 988
                 |
           _cons |  -.3917731   .1952802    -2.01   0.045    -.7745153   -.0090
> 308
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             39.015
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               35.803
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         35.968
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         L5.imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean L5.imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal 1980.year 1981.year 1982.year
                      1983.year 1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year
                      1988.year 1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year
                      1993.year 1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year
                      1998.year 1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year
                      2003.year 2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year
                      2008.year 2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year
                      2013.year 2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode
                      93.ccode 95.ccode 135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccode
                      155.ccode 160.ccode 165.ccode 310.ccode 339.ccode
                      346.ccode 360.ccode 365.ccode 370.ccode 372.ccode
                      373.ccode 402.ccode 404.ccode 411.ccode 420.ccode
                      432.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode 435.ccode 436.ccode
                      437.ccode 438.ccode 439.ccode 450.ccode 451.ccode
                      452.ccode 461.ccode 471.ccode 475.ccode 481.ccode
                      482.ccode 483.ccode 484.ccode 490.ccode 500.ccode
                      501.ccode 510.ccode 516.ccode 517.ccode 522.ccode
                      530.ccode 540.ccode 541.ccode 551.ccode 552.ccode
                      553.ccode 560.ccode 565.ccode 570.ccode 571.ccode
                      572.ccode 580.ccode 581.ccode 600.ccode 615.ccode
                      616.ccode 620.ccode 625.ccode 630.ccode 645.ccode
                      651.ccode 652.ccode 660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode
                      679.ccode 690.ccode 694.ccode 698.ccode 700.ccode
                      701.ccode 702.ccode 703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode
                      710.ccode 732.ccode 760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode
                      775.ccode 780.ccode 790.ccode 800.ccode 811.ccode
                      812.ccode 816.ccode 820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: L5.imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store lag5

. ivreg2 theta_mean l.theta_mean l6.imf_movingavg1 (l6.imfprogram_uu= l6.imf_ma
> xlog_liquidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.year i.
> ccode, robust 
Warning: time variable year has 14 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2201
                                                      F(141,  2059) =  1672.99
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  2378.089074                Centered R2   =   0.9638
Total (uncentered) SS   =  3704.531707                Uncentered R2 =   0.9768
Residual SS             =  86.00895267                Root MSE      =    .1977

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |
             L6. |  -.1997738   .0809221    -2.47   0.014    -.3583781   -.0411
> 694
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8626764   .0186032    46.37   0.000     .8262149    .8991
> 379
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |
             L6. |   .1830066   .1082733     1.69   0.091    -.0292053    .3952
> 185
                 |
     e_migdppcln |   .0183857   .0235009     0.78   0.434    -.0276753    .0644
> 467
     v2xcl_acjst |   .5192908    .130023     3.99   0.000     .2644503    .7741
> 313
v2exl_legitideol |   -.013618   .0132097    -1.03   0.303    -.0395085    .0122
> 725
         actotal |  -.0299281    .004052    -7.39   0.000    -.0378699   -.0219
> 864
                 |
            year |
           1981  |  -.0385345     .03974    -0.97   0.332    -.1164234    .0393
> 544
           1982  |  -.0194194   .0404737    -0.48   0.631    -.0987464    .0599
> 076
           1983  |  -.0248086   .0450612    -0.55   0.582    -.1131271    .0635
> 098
           1984  |  -.0215435   .0399767    -0.54   0.590    -.0998965    .0568
> 094
           1985  |   .0034323   .0398042     0.09   0.931    -.0745825     .081
> 447
           1986  |   .0418158   .0422094     0.99   0.322     -.040913    .1245
> 446
           1987  |   .0342757   .0420698     0.81   0.415    -.0481796     .116
> 731
           1988  |   -.004726   .0452664    -0.10   0.917    -.0934465    .0839
> 944
           1989  |  -.0075679    .046472    -0.16   0.871    -.0986514    .0835
> 157
           1990  |  -.1174933   .0712651    -1.65   0.099    -.2571703    .0221
> 836
           1991  |  -.0696166   .0501917    -1.39   0.165    -.1679905    .0287
> 572
           1992  |   .0120849   .0478453     0.25   0.801    -.0816901    .1058
> 599
           1993  |  -.0098232   .0490288    -0.20   0.841    -.1059179    .0862
> 714
           1994  |   -.024919   .0478891    -0.52   0.603    -.1187799     .068
> 942
           1995  |   .0521426   .0526247     0.99   0.322    -.0509999    .1552
> 852
           1996  |   .0210118   .0448253     0.47   0.639    -.0668442    .1088
> 679
           1997  |  -.0230876   .0441044    -0.52   0.601    -.1095306    .0633
> 554
           1998  |  -.0294414   .0456989    -0.64   0.519    -.1190096    .0601
> 268
           1999  |  -.0042841   .0441337    -0.10   0.923    -.0907846    .0822
> 164
           2000  |   .0044409   .0449908     0.10   0.921    -.0837393    .0926
> 212
           2001  |    .034313   .0429894     0.80   0.425    -.0499446    .1185
> 706
           2002  |    .047109    .045642     1.03   0.302    -.0423476    .1365
> 655
           2003  |    .011624   .0420368     0.28   0.782    -.0707666    .0940
> 145
           2004  |   .0483101   .0559115     0.86   0.388    -.0612743    .1578
> 946
           2005  |  -.0224533   .0438434    -0.51   0.609    -.1083848    .0634
> 783
           2006  |   -.023718   .0424044    -0.56   0.576    -.1068291    .0593
> 931
           2007  |  -.0164424   .0432981    -0.38   0.704    -.1013051    .0684
> 202
           2008  |   .0172662   .0433798     0.40   0.691    -.0677566    .1022
> 891
           2009  |  -.0088642   .0417809    -0.21   0.832    -.0907532    .0730
> 248
           2010  |  -.0271151   .0428839    -0.63   0.527     -.111166    .0569
> 358
           2011  |  -.0966491   .0516026    -1.87   0.061    -.1977885    .0044
> 902
           2012  |  -.0421608   .0423323    -1.00   0.319    -.1251305    .0408
> 089
           2013  |  -.0475209   .0439834    -1.08   0.280    -.1337267    .0386
> 849
           2014  |   -.053045   .0422712    -1.25   0.210    -.1358951    .0298
> 051
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.0985463   .0802007    -1.23   0.219    -.2557368    .0586
> 442
             90  |  -.0762698   .0798522    -0.96   0.340    -.2327772    .0802
> 376
             91  |  -.5044201   .0645828    -7.81   0.000    -.6310001   -.3778
> 401
             92  |  -.2119323    .108603    -1.95   0.051    -.4247903    .0009
> 257
             93  |   -.160101   .0703192    -2.28   0.023     -.297924   -.0222
> 779
             95  |  -.0943588   .0621183    -1.52   0.129    -.2161085    .0273
> 908
            135  |   .0877302   .0910955     0.96   0.336    -.0908136     .266
> 274
            140  |   -.193649   .0700649    -2.76   0.006    -.3309738   -.0563
> 243
            145  |  -.2309669   .0587544    -3.93   0.000    -.3461233   -.1158
> 104
            150  |   .0512741   .0744774     0.69   0.491    -.0946989    .1972
> 471
            155  |  -.0502416   .0745411    -0.67   0.500    -.1963395    .0958
> 564
            160  |   .3929219   .1926179     2.04   0.041     .0153977    .7704
> 461
            165  |  -.0130188    .074363    -0.18   0.861    -.1587676    .1327
> 301
            310  |   .2522712    .124471     2.03   0.043     .0083125    .4962
> 299
            339  |   .1501706   .0780028     1.93   0.054     -.002712    .3030
> 533
            346  |   .1486501   .0979359     1.52   0.129    -.0433009     .340
> 601
            360  |  -.0135046   .0830909    -0.16   0.871    -.1763598    .1493
> 505
            365  |  -.2044348    .074865    -2.73   0.006    -.3511674   -.0577
> 021
            370  |   -.144006   .0876025    -1.64   0.100    -.3157036    .0276
> 917
            372  |  -.0873436   .0889178    -0.98   0.326    -.2616193     .086
> 932
            373  |   .1463758   .0793941     1.84   0.065    -.0092337    .3019
> 853
            402  |   .0326328    .086286     0.38   0.705    -.1364846    .2017
> 503
            404  |    .081656   .0907549     0.90   0.368    -.0962203    .2595
> 323
            411  |   .1197924   .0941923     1.27   0.203    -.0648211    .3044
> 058
            420  |  -.0462283   .0723496    -0.64   0.523     -.188031    .0955
> 743
            432  |  -.1253395   .0868921    -1.44   0.149    -.2956449    .0449
> 659
            433  |   -.195296   .0884344    -2.21   0.027    -.3686243   -.0219
> 678
            434  |   .0979985   .1800549     0.54   0.586    -.2549027    .4508
> 997
            435  |  -.0516328   .0843216    -0.61   0.540    -.2169002    .1136
> 346
            436  |  -.0225627   .0817124    -0.28   0.782    -.1827161    .1375
> 907
            437  |  -.0318268   .0700612    -0.45   0.650    -.1691442    .1054
> 907
            438  |   .1254708   .0830041     1.51   0.131    -.0372143    .2881
> 559
            439  |  -.0427992   .0801569    -0.53   0.593    -.1999038    .1143
> 054
            450  |  -.0791214   .0862872    -0.92   0.359    -.2482411    .0899
> 984
            451  |   .0500479   .0930608     0.54   0.591    -.1323479    .2324
> 438
            452  |   .2057628   .0925091     2.22   0.026     .0244483    .3870
> 773
            461  |   .0125626   .0707888     0.18   0.859    -.1261809     .151
> 306
            471  |  -.0621303   .0797657    -0.78   0.436    -.2184683    .0942
> 076
            475  |  -.2643865   .0971222    -2.72   0.006    -.4547424   -.0740
> 305
            481  |   -.006269   .0762904    -0.08   0.935    -.1557955    .1432
> 575
            482  |   .0782526    .075666     1.03   0.301      -.07005    .2265
> 552
            483  |   .0783326   .0831327     0.94   0.346    -.0846045    .2412
> 697
            484  |   .1439962   .0917742     1.57   0.117    -.0358779    .3238
> 703
            490  |  -.0318003   .0655193    -0.49   0.627    -.1602159    .0966
> 152
            500  |  -.1986368   .0908201    -2.19   0.029    -.3766409   -.0206
> 327
            501  |  -.0139301    .063671    -0.22   0.827    -.1387229    .1108
> 627
            510  |  -.0651629   .0741281    -0.88   0.379    -.2104513    .0801
> 256
            516  |   -.262582   .1149816    -2.28   0.022    -.4879418   -.0372
> 222
            517  |  -.1242698   .1080567    -1.15   0.250    -.3360571    .0875
> 174
            522  |    .000421    .079737     0.01   0.996    -.1558607    .1567
> 027
            530  |  -.0134794   .0833996    -0.16   0.872    -.1769396    .1499
> 808
            540  |  -.0337608   .0778756    -0.43   0.665    -.1863942    .1188
> 727
            541  |  -.0581748   .0771566    -0.75   0.451     -.209399    .0930
> 494
            551  |  -.0979298   .0740212    -1.32   0.186    -.2430087    .0471
> 491
            552  |  -.0669861   .0631986    -1.06   0.289    -.1908531    .0568
> 809
            553  |   .0268449   .0819617     0.33   0.743     -.133797    .1874
> 868
            560  |  -.2311749   .0861338    -2.68   0.007    -.3999941   -.0623
> 558
            565  |  -.1564928   .1088499    -1.44   0.151    -.3698348    .0568
> 492
            570  |  -.0247076   .0797673    -0.31   0.757    -.1810487    .1316
> 334
            571  |  -.0368688   .0889151    -0.41   0.678    -.2111392    .1374
> 016
            572  |   .0044944   .0845175     0.05   0.958    -.1611568    .1701
> 457
            580  |   .0872934   .0839208     1.04   0.298    -.0771883     .251
> 775
            581  |   .0678418    .080252     0.85   0.398    -.0894493    .2251
> 328
            600  |  -.2535811   .0917028    -2.77   0.006    -.4333153    -.073
> 847
            615  |  -.1526596   .0962526    -1.59   0.113    -.3413112    .0359
> 919
            616  |  -.2448946   .0866255    -2.83   0.005    -.4146775   -.0751
> 117
            620  |  -.0936222   .0967392    -0.97   0.333    -.2832276    .0959
> 833
            625  |  -.1012184   .0627972    -1.61   0.107    -.2242987     .021
> 862
            630  |  -.0583343   .0907721    -0.64   0.520    -.2362444    .1195
> 758
            645  |   .0430876   .0907365     0.47   0.635    -.1347527    .2209
> 278
            651  |  -.2436809   .0728921    -3.34   0.001    -.3865468    -.100
> 815
            652  |  -.0228681   .0884966    -0.26   0.796    -.1963182     .150
> 582
            660  |  -.0503872   .0786827    -0.64   0.522    -.2046025    .1038
> 282
            663  |  -.0982232   .0772909    -1.27   0.204    -.2497106    .0532
> 641
            670  |   .0259413   .0913873     0.28   0.777    -.1531744    .2050
> 571
            679  |   -.058495   .0722235    -0.81   0.418    -.2000505    .0830
> 604
            690  |  -.1829052    .120056    -1.52   0.128    -.4182107    .0524
> 003
            694  |   .0521385   .1043978     0.50   0.617    -.1524775    .2567
> 545
            698  |  -.0119402   .0940206    -0.13   0.899    -.1962172    .1723
> 368
            700  |  -.0431746   .0652334    -0.66   0.508    -.1710298    .0846
> 806
            701  |   .1389502   .0905955     1.53   0.125    -.0386137     .316
> 514
            702  |   .1241051   .0746052     1.66   0.096    -.0221184    .2703
> 285
            703  |  -.1482628   .0820439    -1.81   0.071    -.3090659    .0125
> 403
            704  |   .0045815   .0690894     0.07   0.947    -.1308312    .1399
> 942
            705  |  -.2329198   .0841491    -2.77   0.006     -.397849   -.0679
> 906
            710  |  -.1346532   .0797572    -1.69   0.091    -.2909744     .021
> 668
            732  |  -.2765787   .0799546    -3.46   0.001    -.4332868   -.1198
> 706
            760  |    .130649   .1378773     0.95   0.343    -.1395855    .4008
> 835
            770  |   .0293248   .0615668     0.48   0.634    -.0913439    .1499
> 935
            771  |  -.0637902   .0771046    -0.83   0.408    -.2149126    .0873
> 321
            775  |  -.0404711    .057875    -0.70   0.484     -.153904    .0729
> 618
            780  |  -.2498397   .1430229    -1.75   0.081    -.5301595    .0304
> 801
            790  |   .0064261   .0844408     0.08   0.939    -.1590748    .1719
> 271
            800  |  -.1351248   .0999312    -1.35   0.176    -.3309865    .0607
> 368
            811  |   .0951077    .076498     1.24   0.214    -.0548256     .245
> 041
            812  |   .2492461   .0857028     2.91   0.004     .0812718    .4172
> 204
            816  |   .1289878   .0775261     1.66   0.096    -.0229605    .2809
> 362
            820  |  -.0461095   .0845723    -0.55   0.586    -.2118682    .1196
> 492
            840  |    .060525    .067256     0.90   0.368    -.0712944    .1923
> 444
            850  |  -.1206544   .0707661    -1.70   0.088    -.2593533    .0180
> 445
                 |
           _cons |  -.3640847   .2002815    -1.82   0.069    -.7566293    .0284
> 598
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             41.333
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               46.724
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         39.622
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         L6.imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean L6.imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year
                      1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year
                      1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year
                      1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year
                      1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year
                      2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year
                      2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year
                      2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode 93.ccode
                      95.ccode 135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccode 155.ccod
> e
                      160.ccode 165.ccode 310.ccode 339.ccode 346.ccode
                      360.ccode 365.ccode 370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode
                      402.ccode 404.ccode 411.ccode 420.ccode 432.ccode
                      433.ccode 434.ccode 435.ccode 436.ccode 437.ccode
                      438.ccode 439.ccode 450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode
                      461.ccode 471.ccode 475.ccode 481.ccode 482.ccode
                      483.ccode 484.ccode 490.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode
                      510.ccode 516.ccode 517.ccode 522.ccode 530.ccode
                      540.ccode 541.ccode 551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode
                      560.ccode 565.ccode 570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode
                      580.ccode 581.ccode 600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode
                      620.ccode 625.ccode 630.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode
                      652.ccode 660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode
                      690.ccode 694.ccode 698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode
                      702.ccode 703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode
                      732.ccode 760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode 775.ccode
                      780.ccode 790.ccode 800.ccode 811.ccode 812.ccode
                      816.ccode 820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: L6.imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store lag6

. ivreg2 theta_mean l.theta_mean l7.imf_movingavg1 (l7.imfprogram_uu= l7.imf_ma
> xlog_liquidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.year i.
> ccode, robust 
Warning: time variable year has 16 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2107
                                                      F(140,  1966) =  2115.70
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  2277.418449                Centered R2   =   0.9688
Total (uncentered) SS   =  3518.853717                Uncentered R2 =   0.9798
Residual SS             =  71.01648621                Root MSE      =    .1836

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |
             L7. |  -.1055391   .0762963    -1.38   0.167    -.2550771    .0439
> 989
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8685255   .0166814    52.07   0.000     .8358305    .9012
> 205
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |
             L7. |   .0975843   .1040308     0.94   0.348    -.1063123    .3014
> 808
                 |
     e_migdppcln |   .0296976   .0229892     1.29   0.196    -.0153604    .0747
> 557
     v2xcl_acjst |   .4843327   .1302924     3.72   0.000     .2289642    .7397
> 012
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0135621   .0131074    -1.03   0.301    -.0392522     .012
> 128
         actotal |   -.028476   .0041299    -6.90   0.000    -.0365705   -.0203
> 815
                 |
            year |
           1982  |   .0149808   .0249624     0.60   0.548    -.0339446    .0639
> 062
           1983  |   .0231527   .0264196     0.88   0.381    -.0286287    .0749
> 341
           1984  |   .0228557   .0262581     0.87   0.384    -.0286092    .0743
> 206
           1985  |    .034217   .0244805     1.40   0.162     -.013764     .082
> 198
           1986  |    .062548   .0250765     2.49   0.013      .013399     .111
> 697
           1987  |   .0632535   .0271364     2.33   0.020     .0100671    .1164
> 398
           1988  |   .0307053   .0319882     0.96   0.337    -.0319904     .093
> 401
           1989  |   .0302519   .0329548     0.92   0.359    -.0343382    .0948
> 421
           1990  |  -.0803042   .0632734    -1.27   0.204    -.2043179    .0437
> 094
           1991  |  -.0288229    .036956    -0.78   0.435    -.1012554    .0436
> 096
           1992  |   .0346431    .031508     1.10   0.272    -.0271114    .0963
> 976
           1993  |   .0189513   .0338561     0.56   0.576    -.0474053     .085
> 308
           1994  |    .002283   .0307485     0.07   0.941    -.0579829    .0625
> 489
           1995  |   .0783558   .0377885     2.07   0.038     .0042917    .1524
> 198
           1996  |   .0589264   .0285252     2.07   0.039     .0030181    .1148
> 346
           1997  |   .0120313   .0263868     0.46   0.648    -.0396858    .0637
> 485
           1998  |   .0067094   .0314966     0.21   0.831    -.0550228    .0684
> 417
           1999  |   .0404663   .0275248     1.47   0.142    -.0134813     .094
> 414
           2000  |   .0334986   .0293656     1.14   0.254     -.024057    .0910
> 542
           2001  |   .0545965   .0269012     2.03   0.042     .0018711     .107
> 322
           2002  |   .0727798   .0311823     2.33   0.020     .0116635     .133
> 896
           2003  |   .0498079   .0283168     1.76   0.079     -.005692    .1053
> 078
           2004  |   .0809769   .0454743     1.78   0.075     -.008151    .1701
> 048
           2005  |    .018464   .0307673     0.60   0.548    -.0418388    .0787
> 668
           2006  |    .026656   .0299528     0.89   0.374    -.0320504    .0853
> 623
           2007  |   .0079013    .033889     0.23   0.816    -.0585199    .0743
> 225
           2008  |   .0514048   .0326541     1.57   0.115    -.0125961    .1154
> 057
           2009  |   .0371168   .0301952     1.23   0.219    -.0220648    .0962
> 983
           2010  |   .0111028   .0326314     0.34   0.734    -.0528536    .0750
> 591
           2011  |    -.04707   .0434242    -1.08   0.278    -.1321799    .0380
> 399
           2012  |   .0021901   .0333012     0.07   0.948     -.063079    .0674
> 592
           2013  |  -.0039602   .0367586    -0.11   0.914    -.0760058    .0680
> 854
           2014  |  -.0111818   .0332475    -0.34   0.737    -.0763458    .0539
> 822
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |   -.148321   .0835221    -1.78   0.076    -.3120213    .0153
> 793
             90  |  -.0257132   .0765285    -0.34   0.737    -.1757063    .1242
> 799
             91  |   -.476209   .0682054    -6.98   0.000    -.6098892   -.3425
> 289
             92  |  -.0969773   .0723702    -1.34   0.180    -.2388202    .0448
> 656
             93  |  -.1337634   .0729268    -1.83   0.067    -.2766972    .0091
> 705
             95  |  -.1389207   .0640474    -2.17   0.030    -.2644513   -.0133
> 901
            135  |    .093911   .0947808     0.99   0.322     -.091856     .279
> 678
            140  |  -.1993351   .0729315    -2.73   0.006    -.3422782    -.056
> 392
            145  |  -.1025539   .0756249    -1.36   0.175    -.2507759    .0456
> 682
            150  |   .0408963   .0791355     0.52   0.605    -.1142064    .1959
> 991
            155  |  -.0747065   .0688159    -1.09   0.278    -.2095831    .0601
> 701
            160  |   .4562593    .096262     4.74   0.000     .2675893    .6449
> 293
            165  |  -.0379519   .0657033    -0.58   0.564     -.166728    .0908
> 241
            310  |   .2036918   .1207624     1.69   0.092    -.0329982    .4403
> 817
            339  |   .1406746   .0813837     1.73   0.084    -.0188346    .3001
> 838
            346  |   .1049695   .1014083     1.04   0.301    -.0937871    .3037
> 261
            360  |  -.0673505    .077593    -0.87   0.385      -.21943     .084
> 729
            365  |  -.2124533   .0766015    -2.77   0.006    -.3625895   -.0623
> 172
            370  |  -.1593602   .0889164    -1.79   0.073    -.3336331    .0149
> 126
            372  |  -.1017445   .0983998    -1.03   0.301    -.2946047    .0911
> 156
            373  |   .0547084   .0811026     0.67   0.500    -.1042497    .2136
> 665
            402  |   .0019553   .0873917     0.02   0.982    -.1693293      .17
> 324
            404  |    .051427   .0964963     0.53   0.594    -.1377022    .2405
> 562
            411  |   .0245081   .0754243     0.32   0.745    -.1233208     .172
> 337
            420  |  -.0702823   .0770518    -0.91   0.362    -.2213012    .0807
> 365
            432  |  -.1153679   .0929487    -1.24   0.215     -.297544    .0668
> 081
            433  |  -.2335624   .0952346    -2.45   0.014    -.4202188   -.0469
> 059
            434  |   .1156963   .1928817     0.60   0.549    -.2623449    .4937
> 375
            435  |  -.0859661   .0893292    -0.96   0.336    -.2610481    .0891
> 159
            436  |  -.0452494   .0879436    -0.51   0.607    -.2176158     .127
> 117
            437  |  -.0780544   .0781934    -1.00   0.318    -.2313106    .0752
> 019
            438  |    .082326   .0904774     0.91   0.363    -.0950065    .2596
> 585
            439  |    -.07338   .0877564    -0.84   0.403    -.2453794    .0986
> 194
            450  |   -.036648   .0884923    -0.41   0.679    -.2100897    .1367
> 937
            451  |  -.0081809   .0975818    -0.08   0.933    -.1994378    .1830
> 759
            452  |   .1694794   .0894831     1.89   0.058    -.0059042     .344
> 863
            461  |  -.0080702   .0758545    -0.11   0.915    -.1567422    .1406
> 018
            471  |  -.1110413   .0857992    -1.29   0.196    -.2792047    .0571
> 222
            475  |    -.26603   .0974607    -2.73   0.006    -.4570494   -.0750
> 105
            481  |  -.0571951   .0785762    -0.73   0.467    -.2112017    .0968
> 114
            482  |   .0425832   .0813862     0.52   0.601    -.1169307    .2020
> 972
            483  |   .0374765    .088123     0.43   0.671    -.1352414    .2101
> 944
            484  |   .1021666   .0975982     1.05   0.295    -.0891223    .2934
> 554
            490  |  -.0418325   .0706165    -0.59   0.554    -.1802383    .0965
> 733
            500  |  -.1965968   .0976417    -2.01   0.044    -.3879709   -.0052
> 226
            501  |   -.056976   .0694308    -0.82   0.412    -.1930579    .0791
> 059
            510  |  -.0893762   .0797469    -1.12   0.262    -.2456773     .066
> 925
            516  |  -.2593534   .1180495    -2.20   0.028    -.4907261   -.0279
> 806
            517  |  -.1453272   .1129793    -1.29   0.198    -.3667625    .0761
> 082
            522  |  -.0357564   .0851057    -0.42   0.674    -.2025606    .1310
> 478
            530  |  -.0359358   .0902435    -0.40   0.690    -.2128098    .1409
> 382
            540  |  -.0511937   .0824805    -0.62   0.535    -.2128524     .110
> 465
            541  |   -.074954   .0814436    -0.92   0.357    -.2345805    .0846
> 725
            551  |  -.1088898   .0785998    -1.39   0.166    -.2629426    .0451
> 629
            552  |  -.0795492   .0666243    -1.19   0.232    -.2101304    .0510
> 319
            553  |  -.0023186   .0976714    -0.02   0.981     -.193751    .1891
> 139
            560  |  -.2439934   .0889244    -2.74   0.006     -.418282   -.0697
> 049
            565  |  -.1589322   .1137325    -1.40   0.162    -.3818438    .0639
> 794
            570  |  -.0502307   .0857008    -0.59   0.558    -.2182011    .1177
> 396
            571  |  -.0604505   .0906259    -0.67   0.505     -.238074    .1171
> 729
            572  |  -.0184141   .0875848    -0.21   0.833     -.190077    .1532
> 489
            580  |   .0405296   .0924939     0.44   0.661    -.1407551    .2218
> 143
            581  |   .0363782   .0834122     0.44   0.663    -.1271067    .1998
> 632
            600  |  -.2482704   .0924722    -2.68   0.007    -.4295126   -.0670
> 282
            615  |  -.1982404   .1006983    -1.97   0.049    -.3956053   -.0008
> 754
            616  |  -.2563498    .089654    -2.86   0.004    -.4320684   -.0806
> 311
            620  |  -.1079311     .09357    -1.15   0.249    -.2913249    .0754
> 627
            625  |  -.1053411   .0647274    -1.63   0.104    -.2322044    .0215
> 223
            630  |  -.0848236   .0929046    -0.91   0.361    -.2669133     .097
> 266
            645  |  -.0020665   .0918604    -0.02   0.982    -.1821096    .1779
> 767
            651  |  -.2625749   .0760862    -3.45   0.001    -.4117012   -.1134
> 486
            652  |  -.0354627   .0897851    -0.39   0.693    -.2114382    .1405
> 129
            660  |  -.0725392   .0821361    -0.88   0.377     -.233523    .0884
> 447
            663  |  -.1326686    .082609    -1.61   0.108    -.2945792     .029
> 242
            670  |  -.0130563   .0906005    -0.14   0.885    -.1906301    .1645
> 175
            679  |  -.0853125   .0753499    -1.13   0.258    -.2329955    .0623
> 705
            690  |  -.2149435   .1205661    -1.78   0.075    -.4512487    .0213
> 618
            694  |   .0079966   .1015577     0.08   0.937    -.1910528     .207
> 046
            698  |  -.0379284   .0947985    -0.40   0.689    -.2237301    .1478
> 733
            700  |  -.0350486   .0678156    -0.52   0.605    -.1679648    .0978
> 676
            701  |   .1016556   .0922617     1.10   0.271     -.079174    .2824
> 851
            702  |   .0820671   .0817845     1.00   0.316    -.0782274    .2423
> 617
            703  |  -.1787226   .0897201    -1.99   0.046    -.3545707   -.0028
> 745
            704  |  -.0209293   .0742305    -0.28   0.778    -.1664185    .1245
> 599
            705  |  -.2464801   .0854058    -2.89   0.004    -.4138724   -.0790
> 877
            710  |  -.1522183    .082617    -1.84   0.065    -.3141446     .009
> 708
            732  |  -.2765669   .0848788    -3.26   0.001    -.4429262   -.1102
> 076
            760  |   .1845579   .1342915     1.37   0.169    -.0786487    .4477
> 645
            770  |   .0016495   .0654054     0.03   0.980    -.1265428    .1298
> 417
            771  |   -.078083    .079518    -0.98   0.326    -.2339354    .0777
> 694
            775  |  -.0346161   .0619237    -0.56   0.576    -.1559844    .0867
> 522
            780  |  -.1206329   .0839671    -1.44   0.151    -.2852054    .0439
> 396
            790  |   -.006201   .0849233    -0.07   0.942    -.1726478    .1602
> 457
            800  |  -.0222938   .0743401    -0.30   0.764    -.1679977    .1234
> 101
            811  |    .048302   .0804608     0.60   0.548    -.1093982    .2060
> 023
            812  |   .2146829   .0919513     2.33   0.020     .0344617    .3949
> 042
            816  |    .100235   .0848056     1.18   0.237     -.065981     .266
> 451
            820  |  -.0707653    .086992    -0.81   0.416    -.2412665    .0997
> 359
            840  |   .0273891   .0718997     0.38   0.703    -.1135317    .1683
> 099
            850  |  -.1011175    .073661    -1.37   0.170    -.2454905    .0432
> 554
                 |
           _cons |   -.461089   .1984686    -2.32   0.020    -.8500803   -.0720
> 978
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             44.539
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               42.367
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         38.228
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         L7.imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean L7.imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal 1982.year 1983.year 1984.year
                      1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year 1989.year
                      1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year 1994.year
                      1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year 1999.year
                      2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year 2004.year
                      2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year 2009.year
                      2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year 2014.year 70.ccod
> e
                      90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode 93.ccode 95.ccode 135.ccode
                      140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccode 155.ccode 160.ccode
                      165.ccode 310.ccode 339.ccode 346.ccode 360.ccode
                      365.ccode 370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode
                      404.ccode 411.ccode 420.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode
                      434.ccode 435.ccode 436.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode
                      439.ccode 450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode
                      471.ccode 475.ccode 481.ccode 482.ccode 483.ccode
                      484.ccode 490.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode 510.ccode
                      516.ccode 517.ccode 522.ccode 530.ccode 540.ccode
                      541.ccode 551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode
                      565.ccode 570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode 580.ccode
                      581.ccode 600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode
                      625.ccode 630.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode 652.ccode
                      660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode 690.ccode
                      694.ccode 698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode 702.ccode
                      703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode 732.ccode
                      760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode 775.ccode 780.ccode
                      790.ccode 800.ccode 811.ccode 812.ccode 816.ccode
                      820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: L7.imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store lag7

. coefplot lag1 lag2 lag3 lag4 lag5 lag6 lag7, keep(imfprogram_uu L2.imfprogram
> _uu L3.imfprogram_uu L4.imfprogram_uu L5.imfprogram_uu L6.imfprogram_uu L7.im
> fprogram_uu) coeflabel(imfprogram_uu = "IMF Program Participation (t-1)" L2.i
> mfprogram_uu = "IMF Program Participation (t-2)" L3.imfprogram_uu = "IMF Prog
> ram Participation (t-3)" L4.imfprogram_uu = "IMF Program Participation (t-4)"
>  L5.imfprogram_uu = "IMF Program Participation (t-5)" L6.imfprogram_uu = "IMF
>  Program Participation (t-6)" L7.imfprogram_uu = "IMF Program Participation (
> t-7)") xlab(-.6(.1).1) xline(0) xtitle(Coefficient and 95% Confidence Interva
> l) legend(off) ciopts(pstyle(p4)) mcolor(black black black black black black 
> black) msymbol(o o o o o o o) msize(small) mlabposition(1) mlabgap(*0.1) mlab
> el(cond(@pval<.01, "***",cond(@pval<.05, "**", cond(@pval<.1, "*",  cond(@pva
> l<.15, "", ""))))) note(" * p < .1, ** p < .05, *** p < .01") scheme(s2mono) 
> graphregion(fcolor(white) ilcolor(white) lcolor(white))

. 
. *** Table A10 (2SLS results for autocratic sample, with HAC errors) ***
. ivreghdfe theta_mean l.theta_mean (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liquidity_1) imf
> _movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal, absorb (ccode y
> ear)rob bw(2)gmm2s ffirst  
(dropped 1 singleton observations)
Warning: time variable year has 24 gap(s) in relevant range
(MWFE estimator converged in 6 iterations)


Summary results for first-stage regressions
-------------------------------------------

                                           (Underid)            (Weak id)
Variable     | F(  1,  2705)  P-val | SW Chi-sq(  1) P-val | SW F(  1,  2705)
imfprogram_u |      43.09    0.0000 |       45.51   0.0000 |       43.09

NB: first-stage test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Stock-Yogo weak ID F test critical values for single endogenous regressor:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for i.i.d. errors only.

Underidentification test
Ho: matrix of reduced form coefficients has rank=K1-1 (underidentified)
Ha: matrix has rank=K1 (identified)
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic          Chi-sq(1)=46.00    P-val=0.0000

Weak identification test
Ho: equation is weakly identified
Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic                                      56.65
Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F statistic                                43.09

Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values for K1=1 and L1=1:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.

Weak-instrument-robust inference
Tests of joint significance of endogenous regressors B1 in main equation
Ho: B1=0 and orthogonality conditions are valid
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           F(1,2705)=      3.79     P-val=0.0515
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           Chi-sq(1)=      4.01     P-val=0.0453
Stock-Wright LM S statistic        Chi-sq(1)=      4.55     P-val=0.0328

NB: Underidentification, weak identification and weak-identification-robust
    test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Number of observations               N  =       2857
Number of regressors                 K  =          7
Number of endogenous regressors      K1 =          1
Number of instruments                L  =          7
Number of excluded instruments       L1 =          1

2-Step GMM estimation
---------------------

Estimates efficient for arbitrary heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode

                                                      Number of obs =     2857
                                                      F(  7,  2705) =  1466.18
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  864.6399535                Centered R2   =   0.8664
Total (uncentered) SS   =  864.6399535                Uncentered R2 =   0.8664
Residual SS             =  115.5084868                Root MSE      =    .2066

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |  -.1568399   .0861042    -1.82   0.069    -.3256766    .0119
> 969
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8640132   .0164781    52.43   0.000     .8317022    .8963
> 242
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0310538    .096204     0.32   0.747     -.157587    .2196
> 946
     e_migdppcln |   .0037266   .0218405     0.17   0.865    -.0390993    .0465
> 524
     v2xcl_acjst |     .37411   .1070998     3.49   0.000     .1641043    .5841
> 157
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0197323   .0108231    -1.82   0.068    -.0409546      .00
> 149
         actotal |  -.0369422   .0049731    -7.43   0.000    -.0466936   -.0271
> 908
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             45.997
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               56.651
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         43.092
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hansen J statistic (overidentification test of all instruments):         0.000
                                                 (equation exactly identified)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
Partialled-out:       _cons
                      nb: total SS, model F and R2s are after partialling-out;
                          any small-sample adjustments include partialled-out
                          variables in regressor count K
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Absorbed degrees of freedom:
-----------------------------------------------------+
 Absorbed FE | Categories  - Redundant  = Num. Coefs |
-------------+---------------------------------------|
       ccode |       105           0         105     |
        year |        41           1          40     |
-----------------------------------------------------+

. ivreghdfe theta_mean l.theta_mean (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liquidity_1) imf
> _movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal debt_crisis unga
> idealpoint2 , absorb (ccode year)rob bw(2)gmm2s ffirst  
(dropped 1 singleton observations)
Warning: time variable year has 37 gap(s) in relevant range
(MWFE estimator converged in 7 iterations)


Summary results for first-stage regressions
-------------------------------------------

                                           (Underid)            (Weak id)
Variable     | F(  1,  2526)  P-val | SW Chi-sq(  1) P-val | SW F(  1,  2526)
imfprogram_u |      41.94    0.0000 |       44.48   0.0000 |       41.94

NB: first-stage test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Stock-Yogo weak ID F test critical values for single endogenous regressor:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for i.i.d. errors only.

Underidentification test
Ho: matrix of reduced form coefficients has rank=K1-1 (underidentified)
Ha: matrix has rank=K1 (identified)
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic          Chi-sq(1)=43.83    P-val=0.0000

Weak identification test
Ho: equation is weakly identified
Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic                                      58.06
Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F statistic                                41.94

Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values for K1=1 and L1=1:
                                   10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                   15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                   20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                   25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.

Weak-instrument-robust inference
Tests of joint significance of endogenous regressors B1 in main equation
Ho: B1=0 and orthogonality conditions are valid
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           F(1,2526)=      3.82     P-val=0.0508
Anderson-Rubin Wald test           Chi-sq(1)=      4.05     P-val=0.0442
Stock-Wright LM S statistic        Chi-sq(1)=      4.73     P-val=0.0297

NB: Underidentification, weak identification and weak-identification-robust
    test statistics heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust

Number of observations               N  =       2679
Number of regressors                 K  =          9
Number of endogenous regressors      K1 =          1
Number of instruments                L  =          9
Number of excluded instruments       L1 =          1

2-Step GMM estimation
---------------------

Estimates efficient for arbitrary heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
  kernel=Bartlett; bandwidth=2
  time variable (t):  year
  group variable (i): ccode

                                                      Number of obs =     2679
                                                      F(  9,  2526) =  1003.33
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  801.9376163                Centered R2   =   0.8628
Total (uncentered) SS   =  801.9376163                Uncentered R2 =   0.8628
Residual SS             =  110.0522172                Root MSE      =    .2087

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |    -.15974   .0877022    -1.82   0.069    -.3317155    .0122
> 355
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8551102    .017522    48.80   0.000     .8207513    .8894
> 691
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0074286   .0975897     0.08   0.939    -.1839354    .1987
> 927
     e_migdppcln |  -.0029789   .0245955    -0.12   0.904    -.0512082    .0452
> 505
     v2xcl_acjst |   .3503898   .1194455     2.93   0.003     .1161687    .5846
> 109
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0208834   .0120098    -1.74   0.082    -.0444335    .0026
> 667
         actotal |   -.041788   .0054498    -7.67   0.000    -.0524745   -.0311
> 015
     debt_crisis |   .0434932   .0316275     1.38   0.169    -.0185252    .1055
> 117
 ungaidealpoint2 |   .0285741   .0210393     1.36   0.175     -.012682    .0698
> 302
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             43.834
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               58.062
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         41.942
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hansen J statistic (overidentification test of all instruments):         0.000
                                                 (equation exactly identified)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal debt_crisis ungaidealpoint2
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
Partialled-out:       _cons
                      nb: total SS, model F and R2s are after partialling-out;
                          any small-sample adjustments include partialled-out
                          variables in regressor count K
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Absorbed degrees of freedom:
-----------------------------------------------------+
 Absorbed FE | Categories  - Redundant  = Num. Coefs |
-------------+---------------------------------------|
       ccode |       104           0         104     |
        year |        41           1          40     |
-----------------------------------------------------+

. 
. *** Table A11 (2SLS results for autocratic sample, with additional covariates
> ) ***
. * Col 1 adds economic liberalization *
. ivreg2 theta_mean  l.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liq
> uidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal elc debt_crisis u
> ngaidealpoint2 i.year i.ccode, robust
Warning: time variable year has 33 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2388
                                                      F(146,  2241) =  1362.76
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =   2674.31235                Centered R2   =   0.9626
Total (uncentered) SS   =   4294.53477                Uncentered R2 =   0.9767
Residual SS             =  100.0890708                Root MSE      =    .2047

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |  -.1929226   .0801137    -2.41   0.016    -.3499425   -.0359
> 027
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8549205   .0169352    50.48   0.000      .821728     .888
> 113
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0172742   .0908933     0.19   0.849    -.1608734    .1954
> 219
     e_migdppcln |   .0102071   .0247118     0.41   0.680    -.0382272    .0586
> 414
     v2xcl_acjst |   .3621057    .128737     2.81   0.005     .1097858    .6144
> 256
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0144877    .011514    -1.26   0.208    -.0370546    .0080
> 793
         actotal |  -.0397882   .0048118    -8.27   0.000    -.0492191   -.0303
> 573
             elc |   -.003211   .0643848    -0.05   0.960    -.1294029    .1229
> 809
     debt_crisis |   .0524212   .0302316     1.73   0.083    -.0068315     .111
> 674
 ungaidealpoint2 |   .0633613   .0206898     3.06   0.002     .0228101    .1039
> 125
                 |
            year |
           1977  |   .0190824   .0364329     0.52   0.600    -.0523247    .0904
> 895
           1978  |   .0191389   .0389488     0.49   0.623    -.0571994    .0954
> 771
           1979  |   .0559476   .0355228     1.57   0.115    -.0136757     .125
> 571
           1980  |   .0827767   .0387507     2.14   0.033     .0068268    .1587
> 266
           1981  |   .0677461   .0377805     1.79   0.073    -.0063024    .1417
> 945
           1982  |   .0729381   .0371346     1.96   0.050     .0001556    .1457
> 205
           1983  |    .057702   .0399585     1.44   0.149    -.0206151    .1360
> 192
           1984  |   .0733773   .0334041     2.20   0.028     .0079063    .1388
> 482
           1985  |   .0915219   .0324696     2.82   0.005     .0278826    .1551
> 611
           1986  |   .1342409       .034     3.95   0.000     .0676021    .2008
> 797
           1987  |   .1366115   .0372976     3.66   0.000     .0635096    .2097
> 134
           1988  |   .1114799   .0429596     2.59   0.009     .0272807    .1956
> 791
           1989  |   .1158635   .0450094     2.57   0.010     .0276466    .2040
> 803
           1990  |   .0304501   .0682805     0.45   0.656    -.1033773    .1642
> 775
           1991  |   .0728295    .044525     1.64   0.102     -.014438     .160
> 097
           1992  |   .1237138   .0421764     2.93   0.003     .0410497     .206
> 378
           1993  |   .0894997   .0412457     2.17   0.030     .0086596    .1703
> 397
           1994  |   .0739204   .0419917     1.76   0.078    -.0083819    .1562
> 227
           1995  |   .1598592   .0468911     3.41   0.001     .0679544    .2517
> 639
           1996  |    .168901   .0432711     3.90   0.000     .0840912    .2537
> 108
           1997  |   .1182108   .0395572     2.99   0.003     .0406801    .1957
> 415
           1998  |   .1192049   .0416995     2.86   0.004     .0374753    .2009
> 345
           1999  |   .1440268   .0398073     3.62   0.000      .066006    .2220
> 476
           2000  |    .120579   .0382595     3.15   0.002     .0455918    .1955
> 662
           2001  |   .1472271   .0396782     3.71   0.000     .0694592     .224
> 995
           2002  |   .1568903   .0444929     3.53   0.000     .0696857    .2440
> 948
           2003  |   .1329127   .0403022     3.30   0.001     .0539219    .2119
> 035
           2004  |   .1642762   .0550272     2.99   0.003     .0564249    .2721
> 276
           2005  |   .0815337   .0406015     2.01   0.045     .0019562    .1611
> 113
           2006  |   .0883803   .0403335     2.19   0.028     .0093282    .1674
> 324
           2007  |   .0818011   .0412357     1.98   0.047     .0009805    .1626
> 216
           2008  |   .1210998    .041325     2.93   0.003     .0401043    .2020
> 953
           2009  |   .1402904   .0413911     3.39   0.001     .0591654    .2214
> 154
           2010  |   .1188257   .0409585     2.90   0.004     .0385484    .1991
> 029
           2011  |   .0396045   .0479549     0.83   0.409    -.0543855    .1335
> 945
           2012  |   .1077179   .0390374     2.76   0.006      .031206    .1842
> 297
           2013  |   .1390219   .0416237     3.34   0.001      .057441    .2206
> 029
           2014  |   .0604304   .0627179     0.96   0.335    -.0624944    .1833
> 551
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |   -.105136   .0724634    -1.45   0.147    -.2471618    .0368
> 897
             90  |    .082859   .0660386     1.25   0.210    -.0465742    .2122
> 922
             91  |  -.1744973   .0958471    -1.82   0.069    -.3623541    .0133
> 596
             92  |  -.1689811   .1008033    -1.68   0.094    -.3665519    .0285
> 898
             93  |  -.1110673    .069491    -1.60   0.110    -.2472673    .0251
> 326
             95  |  -.0133251   .0692312    -0.19   0.847    -.1490157    .1223
> 655
            130  |  -.0657977   .0613524    -1.07   0.284    -.1860463    .0544
> 508
            135  |   .0376001     .08226     0.46   0.648    -.1236266    .1988
> 267
            140  |  -.1066764    .063605    -1.68   0.094      -.23134    .0179
> 871
            145  |   -.139798   .0645601    -2.17   0.030    -.2663335   -.0132
> 625
            150  |  -.1317738   .0695149    -1.90   0.058    -.2680204    .0044
> 728
            155  |  -.0374869   .0701964    -0.53   0.593    -.1750694    .1000
> 956
            160  |  -.2321716   .2735425    -0.85   0.396    -.7683049    .3039
> 618
            165  |  -.0398409   .0671463    -0.59   0.553    -.1714453    .0917
> 635
            290  |   .0661164   .1030615     0.64   0.521    -.1358803    .2681
> 132
            310  |   .2880566   .1076003     2.68   0.007     .0771638    .4989
> 493
            339  |   .0580449   .0675272     0.86   0.390    -.0743059    .1903
> 958
            346  |   .1234413   .2094112     0.59   0.556     -.286997    .5338
> 797
            355  |   .0790044   .1673173     0.47   0.637    -.2489315    .4069
> 403
            360  |  -.0019719   .0699582    -0.03   0.978    -.1390875    .1351
> 436
            365  |  -.1768557   .0865551    -2.04   0.041    -.3465006   -.0072
> 108
            372  |  -.1673856   .0938003    -1.78   0.074    -.3512307    .0164
> 596
            373  |   .1169077   .0714985     1.64   0.102    -.0232269    .2570
> 422
            402  |   .0573251   .1081423     0.53   0.596    -.1546298    .2692
> 801
            404  |   .0617073   .0832023     0.74   0.458    -.1013662    .2247
> 809
            420  |   .0190075   .0954587     0.20   0.842    -.1680882    .2061
> 031
            432  |  -.0837242   .1096416    -0.76   0.445    -.2986179    .1311
> 695
            433  |  -.0898589   .1043712    -0.86   0.389    -.2944226    .1147
> 049
            434  |   .0705796   .1423045     0.50   0.620    -.2083322    .3494
> 914
            435  |    .013581   .0950284     0.14   0.886    -.1726712    .1998
> 331
            436  |  -.0087133   .1036236    -0.08   0.933    -.2118119    .1943
> 853
            437  |  -.0513907   .0762452    -0.67   0.500    -.2008285     .098
> 047
            438  |   .0852182   .0835129     1.02   0.308     -.078464    .2489
> 004
            439  |   -.034592   .1029901    -0.34   0.737    -.2364489    .1672
> 649
            450  |  -.0124045   .1091162    -0.11   0.909    -.2262683    .2014
> 593
            451  |   .0611022   .0931981     0.66   0.512    -.1215628    .2437
> 672
            452  |   .1390407   .0961422     1.45   0.148    -.0493945    .3274
> 759
            461  |  -.0152935   .0800606    -0.19   0.849    -.1722095    .1416
> 225
            471  |  -.1125899   .0829882    -1.36   0.175    -.2752438    .0500
> 639
            475  |  -.2234217   .1046678    -2.13   0.033    -.4285669   -.0182
> 766
            481  |   .0452229   .0804793     0.56   0.574    -.1125137    .2029
> 595
            482  |  -.0033337   .0823937    -0.04   0.968    -.1648222    .1581
> 549
            483  |  -.0027922    .077497    -0.04   0.971    -.1546836    .1490
> 992
            484  |   .1423702   .0835995     1.70   0.089    -.0214819    .3062
> 222
            490  |  -.0906984   .0747842    -1.21   0.225    -.2372727    .0558
> 759
            500  |  -.1287737   .1042396    -1.24   0.217    -.3330795    .0755
> 321
            501  |   .0060139   .0605114     0.10   0.921    -.1125863    .1246
> 141
            510  |  -.0117595   .0928627    -0.13   0.899     -.193767     .170
> 248
            516  |  -.1885299   .1132796    -1.66   0.096    -.4105538    .0334
> 941
            517  |   -.098417   .1171854    -0.84   0.401    -.3280961    .1312
> 621
            530  |  -.0219937   .0911419    -0.24   0.809    -.2006285    .1566
> 412
            540  |  -.0248415   .0888106    -0.28   0.780     -.198907     .149
> 224
            541  |    .011442   .0972603     0.12   0.906    -.1791847    .2020
> 687
            551  |  -.0370528   .0820448    -0.45   0.652    -.1978576     .123
> 752
            552  |  -.1016988    .075216    -1.35   0.176    -.2491195    .0457
> 219
            553  |   -.019347    .089093    -0.22   0.828    -.1939662    .1552
> 721
            560  |  -.3030202   .1244289    -2.44   0.015    -.5468964    -.059
> 144
            565  |  -.1287676   .1291792    -1.00   0.319    -.3819541    .1244
> 189
            570  |  -.0477494   .1012199    -0.47   0.637    -.2461367    .1506
> 379
            571  |  -.0258019   .1169078    -0.22   0.825    -.2549369    .2033
> 332
            572  |   -.062661   .0918362    -0.68   0.495    -.2426566    .1173
> 347
            580  |    .089186   .0791544     1.13   0.260    -.0659537    .2443
> 258
            600  |  -.1491091   .0977558    -1.53   0.127     -.340707    .0424
> 888
            615  |  -.1046493   .0988803    -1.06   0.290    -.2984511    .0891
> 524
            616  |  -.2239018   .1075866    -2.08   0.037    -.4347677   -.0130
> 358
            620  |  -.1256515   .0904317    -1.39   0.165    -.3028945    .0515
> 914
            625  |  -.0689179   .0608471    -1.13   0.257     -.188176    .0503
> 402
            630  |  -.1017944   .0858514    -1.19   0.236    -.2700601    .0664
> 713
            640  |   .0093531   .0663527     0.14   0.888    -.1206958     .139
> 402
            645  |   .1678285   .0912024     1.84   0.066     -.010925     .346
> 582
            651  |  -.2026036   .0877997    -2.31   0.021    -.3746877   -.0305
> 194
            652  |  -.0893248    .077958    -1.15   0.252    -.2421197      .06
> 347
            660  |  -.0546237   .0896797    -0.61   0.542    -.2303927    .1211
> 452
            663  |  -.0940118   .0951898    -0.99   0.323    -.2805804    .0925
> 567
            670  |  -.0463292   .0793565    -0.58   0.559    -.2018652    .1092
> 067
            679  |  -.0667131   .0766596    -0.87   0.384    -.2169631    .0835
> 369
            690  |  -.1438832   .1322274    -1.09   0.277    -.4030441    .1152
> 776
            694  |   .0753861   .1097477     0.69   0.492    -.1397155    .2904
> 877
            698  |  -.0071131   .1110227    -0.06   0.949    -.2247135    .2104
> 873
            700  |  -.0930504   .0900389    -1.03   0.301    -.2695234    .0834
> 226
            702  |   .0998586   .0739107     1.35   0.177    -.0450037    .2447
> 208
            703  |  -.0513592   .0775742    -0.66   0.508    -.2034018    .1006
> 835
            705  |  -.2507384    .097947    -2.56   0.010     -.442711   -.0587
> 659
            710  |  -.1461674   .0862261    -1.70   0.090    -.3151674    .0228
> 326
            712  |   .1337502   .1333361     1.00   0.316    -.1275838    .3950
> 841
            760  |   .0690467   .1617091     0.43   0.669    -.2478972    .3859
> 906
            770  |  -.0400184   .0575278    -0.70   0.487    -.1527708     .072
> 734
            771  |  -.0242287   .0755683    -0.32   0.748    -.1723399    .1238
> 825
            775  |  -.0441047    .066503    -0.66   0.507    -.1744481    .0862
> 387
            780  |  -.0958733   .1091845    -0.88   0.380     -.309871    .1181
> 244
            790  |   -.050282   .0808708    -0.62   0.534    -.2087859    .1082
> 218
            800  |  -.2126793   .0957536    -2.22   0.026    -.4003529   -.0250
> 058
            811  |   .0336246   .0826772     0.41   0.684    -.1284198     .195
> 669
            812  |   .1888758   .0840509     2.25   0.025      .024139    .3536
> 126
            816  |   .1332628   .0819567     1.63   0.104    -.0273694     .293
> 895
            820  |  -.0758206   .0943117    -0.80   0.421    -.2606682    .1090
> 269
            840  |   .1523229   .0664754     2.29   0.022     .0220336    .2826
> 122
            850  |  -.0347405    .076898    -0.45   0.651    -.1854578    .1159
> 768
                 |
           _cons |  -.2373576   .2838599    -0.84   0.403    -.7937127    .3189
> 975
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             60.911
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               55.251
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         58.470
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal elc debt_crisis ungaidealpoint2
                      1977.year 1978.year 1979.year 1980.year 1981.year
                      1982.year 1983.year 1984.year 1985.year 1986.year
                      1987.year 1988.year 1989.year 1990.year 1991.year
                      1992.year 1993.year 1994.year 1995.year 1996.year
                      1997.year 1998.year 1999.year 2000.year 2001.year
                      2002.year 2003.year 2004.year 2005.year 2006.year
                      2007.year 2008.year 2009.year 2010.year 2011.year
                      2012.year 2013.year 2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode
                      92.ccode 93.ccode 95.ccode 130.ccode 135.ccode 140.ccode
                      145.ccode 150.ccode 155.ccode 160.ccode 165.ccode
                      290.ccode 310.ccode 339.ccode 346.ccode 355.ccode
                      360.ccode 365.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode
                      404.ccode 420.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode
                      435.ccode 436.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode 439.ccode
                      450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode 471.ccode
                      475.ccode 481.ccode 482.ccode 483.ccode 484.ccode
                      490.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode 510.ccode 516.ccode
                      517.ccode 530.ccode 540.ccode 541.ccode 551.ccode
                      552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode 565.ccode 570.ccode
                      571.ccode 572.ccode 580.ccode 600.ccode 615.ccode
                      616.ccode 620.ccode 625.ccode 630.ccode 640.ccode
                      645.ccode 651.ccode 652.ccode 660.ccode 663.ccode
                      670.ccode 679.ccode 690.ccode 694.ccode 698.ccode
                      700.ccode 702.ccode 703.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode
                      712.ccode 760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode 775.ccode
                      780.ccode 790.ccode 800.ccode 811.ccode 812.ccode
                      816.ccode 820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Col 2 adds logged population size *
. gen log_e_wb_pop = log(e_wb_pop)
(107 missing values generated)

. ivreg2 theta_mean  l.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liq
> uidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal log_e_wb_pop debt
> _crisis ungaidealpoint2 i.year i.ccode, robust
Warning: time variable year has 38 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2677
                                                      F(154,  2522) =  1187.95
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  2993.725579                Centered R2   =   0.9638
Total (uncentered) SS   =  4692.043779                Uncentered R2 =   0.9769
Residual SS             =  108.2713206                Root MSE      =    .2011

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |    -.14765   .0765264    -1.93   0.054     -.297639     .002
> 339
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8586865   .0163441    52.54   0.000     .8266526    .8907
> 204
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0051429   .0855255     0.06   0.952    -.1624839    .1727
> 697
     e_migdppcln |  -.0045395   .0213753    -0.21   0.832    -.0464344    .0373
> 553
     v2xcl_acjst |   .3445547   .1121194     3.07   0.002     .1248048    .5643
> 047
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0197591   .0107794    -1.83   0.067    -.0408863    .0013
> 682
         actotal |  -.0408404   .0049156    -8.31   0.000    -.0504748   -.0312
> 059
    log_e_wb_pop |  -.0870763   .0455827    -1.91   0.056    -.1764167    .0022
> 641
     debt_crisis |   .0414174   .0298372     1.39   0.165    -.0170624    .0998
> 972
 ungaidealpoint2 |   .0278189   .0180738     1.54   0.124    -.0076051    .0632
> 429
                 |
            year |
           1975  |  -.0230086   .0338912    -0.68   0.497    -.0894341     .043
> 417
           1976  |  -.0394539   .0413245    -0.95   0.340    -.1204485    .0415
> 407
           1977  |  -.0251028   .0405465    -0.62   0.536    -.1045726    .0543
> 669
           1978  |  -.0187089   .0416647    -0.45   0.653    -.1003701    .0629
> 524
           1979  |   .0172816   .0412524     0.42   0.675    -.0635716    .0981
> 348
           1980  |   .0666374   .0528213     1.26   0.207    -.0368905    .1701
> 652
           1981  |   .0321392   .0462428     0.70   0.487    -.0584951    .1227
> 734
           1982  |   .0391047   .0450692     0.87   0.386    -.0492292    .1274
> 387
           1983  |   .0240714   .0486227     0.50   0.621    -.0712274    .1193
> 701
           1984  |   .0405704   .0446851     0.91   0.364    -.0470107    .1281
> 516
           1985  |   .0608455   .0451032     1.35   0.177    -.0275552    .1492
> 462
           1986  |   .0998942   .0477004     2.09   0.036     .0064032    .1933
> 852
           1987  |   .0988515   .0506194     1.95   0.051    -.0003606    .1980
> 636
           1988  |    .076266   .0559433     1.36   0.173    -.0333808    .1859
> 128
           1989  |   .0746622   .0582582     1.28   0.200    -.0395219    .1888
> 462
           1990  |  -.0087726   .0747902    -0.12   0.907    -.1553586    .1378
> 134
           1991  |   .0351401   .0596983     0.59   0.556    -.0818664    .1521
> 467
           1992  |   .0801416   .0582235     1.38   0.169    -.0339744    .1942
> 575
           1993  |    .069109    .057953     1.19   0.233    -.0444768    .1826
> 948
           1994  |   .0452601   .0583581     0.78   0.438    -.0691196    .1596
> 398
           1995  |   .1302081   .0626657     2.08   0.038     .0073856    .2530
> 306
           1996  |   .1424642   .0609365     2.34   0.019     .0230308    .2618
> 976
           1997  |   .0833281   .0591487     1.41   0.159    -.0326012    .1992
> 575
           1998  |   .0918159    .060622     1.51   0.130     -.027001    .2106
> 329
           1999  |    .120507   .0594667     2.03   0.043     .0039545    .2370
> 595
           2000  |   .1088149   .0591805     1.84   0.066    -.0071768    .2248
> 066
           2001  |   .1360932   .0619134     2.20   0.028     .0147451    .2574
> 413
           2002  |   .1438899   .0648541     2.22   0.027     .0167782    .2710
> 016
           2003  |   .1167214   .0630066     1.85   0.064    -.0067693     .240
> 212
           2004  |   .1484767   .0713269     2.08   0.037     .0086786    .2882
> 748
           2005  |   .0838839   .0636152     1.32   0.187    -.0407997    .2085
> 675
           2006  |   .1011264   .0643524     1.57   0.116    -.0250021    .2272
> 548
           2007  |   .0982701    .066533     1.48   0.140    -.0321322    .2286
> 724
           2008  |   .1363892   .0677411     2.01   0.044      .003619    .2691
> 593
           2009  |    .146065    .069084     2.11   0.034     .0106628    .2814
> 672
           2010  |   .1281494   .0701104     1.83   0.068    -.0092645    .2655
> 633
           2011  |   .0655642   .0749081     0.88   0.381    -.0812531    .2123
> 814
           2012  |   .1290203   .0704315     1.83   0.067    -.0090229    .2670
> 636
           2013  |   .1565523   .0696813     2.25   0.025     .0199795    .2931
> 251
           2014  |   .0986679   .0699753     1.41   0.159    -.0384811    .2358
> 169
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |   .1215431   .1382519     0.88   0.379    -.1494257    .3925
> 119
             90  |   .0114572   .0637761     0.18   0.857    -.1135417    .1364
> 561
             91  |  -.1112704   .0926773    -1.20   0.230    -.2929146    .0703
> 739
             92  |  -.1518715   .0762863    -1.99   0.047      -.30139   -.0023
> 531
             93  |  -.1405935   .0652008    -2.16   0.031    -.2683847   -.0128
> 024
             95  |  -.0929189   .0715864    -1.30   0.194    -.2332257    .0473
> 879
            130  |  -.0046272   .0638423    -0.07   0.942    -.1297558    .1205
> 014
            135  |   .1216401   .0914365     1.33   0.183    -.0575723    .3008
> 524
            140  |   .1935717   .1589636     1.22   0.223    -.1179913    .5051
> 347
            145  |  -.0903921   .0561318    -1.61   0.107    -.2004084    .0196
> 242
            150  |  -.1184674   .0659187    -1.80   0.072    -.2476657    .0107
> 309
            155  |    .059571   .0727015     0.82   0.413    -.0829213    .2020
> 632
            160  |  -.0317011   .2349309    -0.13   0.893    -.4921572    .4287
> 549
            165  |  -.1059575    .067023    -1.58   0.114    -.2373201    .0254
> 051
            290  |   .2383126   .1324347     1.80   0.072    -.0212547    .4978
> 799
            310  |     .32568   .1085256     3.00   0.003     .1129737    .5383
> 862
            339  |  -.0065863   .0669131    -0.10   0.922    -.1377335    .1245
> 608
            346  |    .123417   .2151752     0.57   0.566    -.2983185    .5451
> 526
            355  |   .1936965   .1507579     1.28   0.199    -.1017835    .4891
> 765
            360  |   .1263599   .0930787     1.36   0.175     -.056071    .3087
> 907
            365  |   .0830519   .1545721     0.54   0.591    -.2199038    .3860
> 075
            370  |  -.1482193   .0947694    -1.56   0.118    -.3339639    .0375
> 252
            372  |  -.1686993    .092715    -1.82   0.069    -.3504173    .0130
> 186
            373  |   .1336409   .0677508     1.97   0.049     .0008517    .2664
> 301
            402  |  -.2001175   .1611275    -1.24   0.214    -.5159216    .1156
> 865
            404  |  -.1198935   .1153807    -1.04   0.299    -.3460356    .1062
> 486
            411  |  -.1425541   .1192826    -1.20   0.232    -.3763438    .0912
> 355
            420  |  -.1698373   .1212498    -1.40   0.161    -.4074825    .0678
> 079
            432  |  -.0947778   .0929883    -1.02   0.308    -.2770316     .087
> 476
            433  |  -.0787351   .0916334    -0.86   0.390    -.2583333    .1008
> 631
            434  |   .0245333   .1261212     0.19   0.846    -.2226597    .2717
> 263
            435  |  -.1039298   .1008155    -1.03   0.303    -.3015247     .093
> 665
            436  |  -.0260604   .0877914    -0.30   0.767    -.1981283    .1460
> 075
            437  |   -.003453   .0735219    -0.05   0.963    -.1475532    .1406
> 472
            438  |   .0431929   .0761012     0.57   0.570    -.1059628    .1923
> 485
            439  |  -.0276958   .0879956    -0.31   0.753    -.2001639    .1447
> 724
            450  |  -.0876862   .1181339    -0.74   0.458    -.3192243    .1438
> 519
            451  |  -.0088073    .084037    -0.10   0.917    -.1735169    .1559
> 022
            452  |   .1632886   .0902519     1.81   0.070    -.0136017     .340
> 179
            461  |  -.0899071   .0770228    -1.17   0.243    -.2408691    .0610
> 549
            471  |  -.0578494   .0773673    -0.75   0.455    -.2094864    .0937
> 876
            475  |   .0283115   .1557672     0.18   0.856    -.2769867    .3336
> 096
            481  |   -.108664   .1067287    -1.02   0.309    -.3178484    .1005
> 203
            482  |  -.0966525   .0854375    -1.13   0.258    -.2641069    .0708
> 019
            483  |  -.0188715   .0687933    -0.27   0.784     -.153704    .1159
> 609
            484  |   .0303452   .0882121     0.34   0.731    -.1425473    .2032
> 377
            490  |   .0436386   .0973899     0.45   0.654     -.147242    .2345
> 192
            500  |  -.0588985     .09905    -0.59   0.552    -.2530329    .1352
> 359
            501  |   .1076746   .0770641     1.40   0.162    -.0433684    .2587
> 175
            510  |   .0770815   .0995513     0.77   0.439    -.1180353    .2721
> 984
            516  |  -.1252354   .1311895    -0.95   0.340    -.3823622    .1318
> 914
            517  |   -.088371   .1043169    -0.85   0.397    -.2928284    .1160
> 863
            522  |  -.2160692   .1389362    -1.56   0.120    -.4883793    .0562
> 408
            530  |   .1292948   .1158017     1.12   0.264    -.0976724     .356
> 262
            540  |   .0572998   .0830496     0.69   0.490    -.1054744     .220
> 074
            541  |   .0451743   .0864268     0.52   0.601     -.124219    .2145
> 677
            551  |  -.0266692   .0720532    -0.37   0.711     -.167891    .1145
> 525
            552  |  -.0709765   .0708789    -1.00   0.317    -.2098966    .0679
> 437
            553  |  -.0181674   .0796636    -0.23   0.820    -.1743052    .1379
> 703
            560  |   -.099769   .1352363    -0.74   0.461    -.3648273    .1652
> 893
            565  |  -.2344755   .1300772    -1.80   0.071    -.4894222    .0204
> 711
            570  |  -.1729529   .1089898    -1.59   0.113    -.3865689    .0406
> 631
            571  |  -.1419017   .1213462    -1.17   0.242    -.3797359    .0959
> 325
            572  |   -.201103    .125122    -1.61   0.108    -.4463377    .0441
> 316
            580  |   .0934453   .0714081     1.31   0.191     -.046512    .2334
> 026
            581  |   -.237833   .1503554    -1.58   0.114    -.5325242    .0568
> 581
            600  |  -.0188038   .1074324    -0.18   0.861    -.2293674    .1917
> 597
            615  |   .0395151   .1111232     0.36   0.722    -.1782823    .2573
> 125
            616  |  -.1897994    .093185    -2.04   0.042    -.3724387   -.0071
> 602
            620  |  -.1338993   .0771624    -1.74   0.083    -.2851348    .0173
> 362
            625  |   .0371066   .0743876     0.50   0.618    -.1086904    .1829
> 037
            630  |   .1013601    .124792     0.81   0.417    -.1432277    .3459
> 479
            640  |   .2192805   .1166096     1.88   0.060    -.0092701    .4478
> 311
            645  |   .2647886   .0995309     2.66   0.008     .0697115    .4598
> 656
            651  |  -.0133756   .1263315    -0.11   0.916    -.2609807    .2342
> 295
            652  |  -.0353519   .0766347    -0.46   0.645    -.1855532    .1148
> 493
            660  |  -.0999588   .0835894    -1.20   0.232    -.2637909    .0638
> 734
            663  |  -.1439873   .0855328    -1.68   0.092    -.3116286     .023
> 654
            670  |   .0802969   .0867128     0.93   0.354    -.0896571     .250
> 251
            679  |  -.0133642   .0737641    -0.18   0.856    -.1579392    .1312
> 108
            690  |  -.2169065   .1244468    -1.74   0.081    -.4608176    .0270
> 047
            694  |  -.0993108   .1366628    -0.73   0.467     -.367165    .1685
> 433
            698  |  -.0822538   .1070305    -0.77   0.442    -.2920297     .127
> 522
            700  |  -.0217467   .0861412    -0.25   0.801    -.1905804    .1470
> 871
            701  |  -.0104725   .0750931    -0.14   0.889    -.1576523    .1367
> 074
            702  |   .0853057   .0667683     1.28   0.201    -.0455577    .2161
> 692
            703  |  -.0996171   .0750024    -1.33   0.184     -.246619    .0473
> 849
            704  |   .0186999   .0820313     0.23   0.820    -.1420784    .1794
> 783
            705  |  -.1561204   .0944372    -1.65   0.098     -.341214    .0289
> 732
            710  |   .3254749   .2423908     1.34   0.179    -.1496024    .8005
> 522
            712  |   .0321305   .1320996     0.24   0.808      -.22678    .2910
> 409
            760  |  -.2015951   .2043841    -0.99   0.324    -.6021805    .1989
> 903
            770  |   .1993624   .1349977     1.48   0.140    -.0652281    .4639
> 529
            771  |   .2091083   .1366458     1.53   0.126    -.0587126    .4769
> 291
            775  |   .1270904   .0965898     1.32   0.188     -.062222    .3164
> 029
            780  |   -.013831   .1089721    -0.13   0.899    -.2274125    .1997
> 505
            790  |   .0323936   .0815223     0.40   0.691    -.1273873    .1921
> 744
            800  |   .0025113   .1247765     0.02   0.984    -.2420462    .2470
> 688
            811  |   .0425181   .0755082     0.56   0.573    -.1054752    .1905
> 114
            812  |   .1087671   .0791418     1.37   0.169     -.046348    .2638
> 822
            816  |   .3082504   .1270054     2.43   0.015     .0593243    .5571
> 765
            820  |   .0453228   .0998835     0.45   0.650    -.1504452    .2410
> 908
            840  |   .3495191    .116442     3.00   0.003     .1212969    .5777
> 412
            850  |   .2555652   .1724599     1.48   0.138      -.08245    .5935
> 804
                 |
           _cons |   1.241111   .7538151     1.65   0.100    -.2363393    2.718
> 562
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             61.981
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               57.894
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         59.686
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal log_e_wb_pop debt_crisis
                      ungaidealpoint2 1975.year 1976.year 1977.year 1978.year
                      1979.year 1980.year 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year
                      1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year
                      1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year
                      1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year
                      1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year
                      2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year
                      2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year
                      2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode 93.ccode
                      95.ccode 130.ccode 135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccod
> e
                      155.ccode 160.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode 310.ccode
                      339.ccode 346.ccode 355.ccode 360.ccode 365.ccode
                      370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode 404.ccode
                      411.ccode 420.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode
                      435.ccode 436.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode 439.ccode
                      450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode 471.ccode
                      475.ccode 481.ccode 482.ccode 483.ccode 484.ccode
                      490.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode 510.ccode 516.ccode
                      517.ccode 522.ccode 530.ccode 540.ccode 541.ccode
                      551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode 565.ccode
                      570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode 580.ccode 581.ccode
                      600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode 625.ccode
                      630.ccode 640.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode 652.ccode
                      660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode 690.ccode
                      694.ccode 698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode 702.ccode
                      703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode 712.ccode
                      760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode 775.ccode 780.ccode
                      790.ccode 800.ccode 811.ccode 812.ccode 816.ccode
                      820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Col 3 adds V-Dem mass mobilization index *
. ivreg2 theta_mean  l.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liq
> uidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal v2cagenmob debt_c
> risis ungaidealpoint2 i.year i.ccode, robust 
Warning: time variable year has 23 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     1960
                                                      F(132,  1827) =   822.03
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  1914.110139                Centered R2   =   0.9592
Total (uncentered) SS   =  3106.904936                Uncentered R2 =   0.9748
Residual SS             =  78.17964547                Root MSE      =    .1997

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |  -.1638698   .0929865    -1.76   0.078      -.34612    .0183
> 803
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8513747   .0197254    43.16   0.000     .8127135    .8900
> 358
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0171514   .1213171     0.14   0.888    -.2206257    .2549
> 285
     e_migdppcln |   .0033938   .0245353     0.14   0.890    -.0446945    .0514
> 822
     v2xcl_acjst |   .5393775   .1491785     3.62   0.000     .2469931    .8317
> 619
v2exl_legitideol |   -.031805   .0125758    -2.53   0.011    -.0564531    -.007
> 157
         actotal |  -.0389083   .0055106    -7.06   0.000    -.0497089   -.0281
> 077
      v2cagenmob |  -.0376549   .0078057    -4.82   0.000    -.0529538    -.022
> 356
     debt_crisis |   .0675371   .0332849     2.03   0.042     .0022999    .1327
> 743
 ungaidealpoint2 |   .0297252   .0182721     1.63   0.104    -.0060874    .0655
> 378
                 |
            year |
           1975  |  -.0041477   .0267516    -0.16   0.877    -.0565798    .0482
> 844
           1976  |  -.0156405   .0272788    -0.57   0.566    -.0691059    .0378
> 249
           1977  |  -.0135937   .0351601    -0.39   0.699    -.0825061    .0553
> 188
           1978  |   .0271034   .0290779     0.93   0.351    -.0298882    .0840
> 951
           1979  |   .0174906   .0332676     0.53   0.599    -.0477127    .0826
> 938
           1980  |   .0756771   .0516735     1.46   0.143    -.0256011    .1769
> 552
           1981  |   .0277522   .0396759     0.70   0.484    -.0500111    .1055
> 155
           1982  |   .0167754    .033425     0.50   0.616    -.0487364    .0822
> 873
           1983  |   .0153469   .0439698     0.35   0.727    -.0708322    .1015
> 261
           1984  |   .0471544   .0337341     1.40   0.162    -.0189633     .113
> 272
           1985  |    .058355   .0317212     1.84   0.066    -.0038173    .1205
> 273
           1986  |   .0814638   .0317437     2.57   0.010     .0192473    .1436
> 804
           1987  |   .0864917   .0347367     2.49   0.013     .0184091    .1545
> 744
           1988  |   .0982215   .0396021     2.48   0.013     .0206029    .1758
> 402
           1989  |   .0731111     .04621     1.58   0.114    -.0174589    .1636
> 811
           1990  |  -.0255787   .0843825    -0.30   0.762    -.1909655     .139
> 808
           1991  |   .0251323   .0481472     0.52   0.602    -.0692345    .1194
> 991
           1992  |   .0746335   .0463376     1.61   0.107    -.0161865    .1654
> 534
           1993  |    .035771   .0418722     0.85   0.393    -.0462971     .117
> 839
           1994  |   .0132588   .0420144     0.32   0.752     -.069088    .0956
> 055
           1995  |   .1032766   .0493391     2.09   0.036     .0065738    .1999
> 795
           1996  |   .1190027   .0417337     2.85   0.004     .0372062    .2007
> 993
           1997  |   .0610466   .0361688     1.69   0.091    -.0098429    .1319
> 361
           1998  |   .0675222    .037019     1.82   0.068    -.0050337    .1400
> 782
           1999  |   .0758641    .035891     2.11   0.035      .005519    .1462
> 092
           2000  |   .0682107   .0374782     1.82   0.069    -.0052453    .1416
> 667
           2001  |    .092923   .0367907     2.53   0.012     .0208145    .1650
> 315
           2002  |   .0990299   .0416435     2.38   0.017     .0174101    .1806
> 497
           2003  |   .0760979   .0380931     2.00   0.046     .0014367    .1507
> 591
           2004  |    .095719   .0531868     1.80   0.072    -.0085253    .1999
> 633
           2005  |   .0404238   .0422931     0.96   0.339    -.0424691    .1233
> 166
           2006  |   .0436047   .0426064     1.02   0.306    -.0399024    .1271
> 117
           2007  |   .0367695   .0428692     0.86   0.391    -.0472526    .1207
> 917
           2008  |   .0726656   .0437799     1.66   0.097    -.0131414    .1584
> 726
           2009  |   .0577067    .039181     1.47   0.141    -.0190867    .1345
> 001
           2010  |   .0588823   .0401518     1.47   0.143    -.0198138    .1375
> 784
           2011  |   .0287736   .0524479     0.55   0.583    -.0740224    .1315
> 695
           2012  |   .1028392   .0392823     2.62   0.009     .0258472    .1798
> 311
           2013  |   .1373178   .0612058     2.24   0.025     .0173566     .257
> 279
           2014  |   .0660302   .0438797     1.50   0.132    -.0199724    .1520
> 328
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.1099217   .0759912    -1.45   0.148    -.2588618    .0390
> 185
             90  |  -.0183762   .0672617    -0.27   0.785    -.1502068    .1134
> 543
             95  |   -.035596   .0608941    -0.58   0.559    -.1549462    .0837
> 542
            130  |  -.1598909   .0778997    -2.05   0.040    -.3125715   -.0072
> 103
            135  |  -.0253785   .0796102    -0.32   0.750    -.1814116    .1306
> 546
            140  |  -.0440806   .0778241    -0.57   0.571     -.196613    .1084
> 518
            145  |  -.1157768   .0576921    -2.01   0.045    -.2288513   -.0027
> 023
            150  |  -.1029803    .067769    -1.52   0.129    -.2358051    .0298
> 445
            155  |  -.0612022   .0686636    -0.89   0.373    -.1957805     .073
> 376
            165  |  -.1362628   .0671878    -2.03   0.043    -.2679486   -.0045
> 771
            290  |   .0702486   .1056276     0.67   0.506    -.1367777     .277
> 275
            310  |   .2435607   .1161941     2.10   0.036     .0158244     .471
> 297
            339  |   .0443128   .0735068     0.60   0.547    -.0997579    .1883
> 835
            346  |   .1170892   .2106913     0.56   0.578    -.2958582    .5300
> 366
            355  |    .019894   .1844096     0.11   0.914    -.3415421    .3813
> 302
            360  |  -.0338737    .063256    -0.54   0.592    -.1578531    .0901
> 057
            365  |  -.2094391   .0871752    -2.40   0.016    -.3802995   -.0385
> 788
            370  |  -.2309178   .1054655    -2.19   0.029    -.4376264   -.0242
> 091
            372  |  -.1688947   .1008923    -1.67   0.094      -.36664    .0288
> 505
            373  |   .1304027   .0732784     1.78   0.075    -.0132204    .2740
> 257
            402  |  -.0737981   .1077592    -0.68   0.493    -.2850023     .137
> 406
            411  |   .1540304     .09168     1.68   0.093    -.0256591    .3337
> 198
            420  |  -.1620039   .0906546    -1.79   0.074    -.3396836    .0156
> 758
            433  |  -.1591658   .1048634    -1.52   0.129    -.3646943    .0463
> 628
            434  |   .0208925   .1277772     0.16   0.870    -.2295463    .2713
> 313
            437  |  -.0836949   .0769582    -1.09   0.277    -.2345302    .0671
> 404
            438  |   .0816152   .0882335     0.92   0.355    -.0913193    .2545
> 498
            439  |  -.1117057   .1025805    -1.09   0.276    -.3127598    .0893
> 484
            450  |   -.030284   .0956107    -0.32   0.751    -.2176775    .1571
> 094
            451  |   .0801007   .0889924     0.90   0.368    -.0943213    .2545
> 227
            452  |    .153092   .0948147     1.61   0.106    -.0327414    .3389
> 253
            461  |  -.0867006   .0773166    -1.12   0.262    -.2382385    .0648
> 372
            471  |  -.1548561   .0871399    -1.78   0.076    -.3256471     .015
> 935
            475  |  -.3101192   .1068876    -2.90   0.004    -.5196151   -.1006
> 234
            482  |  -.0028847   .0825553    -0.03   0.972    -.1646901    .1589
> 207
            490  |  -.0213522   .0779079    -0.27   0.784    -.1740489    .1313
> 446
            500  |  -.2962619   .1071372    -2.77   0.006    -.5062469   -.0862
> 769
            510  |  -.1662439   .0856065    -1.94   0.052    -.3340296    .0015
> 418
            517  |  -.1405894   .1127381    -1.25   0.212     -.361552    .0803
> 733
            522  |   -.064951   .0919383    -0.71   0.480    -.2451468    .1152
> 448
            530  |  -.1005599   .0897835    -1.12   0.263    -.2765323    .0754
> 126
            541  |  -.1316512   .0910261    -1.45   0.148    -.3100591    .0467
> 567
            551  |  -.0641808   .0778209    -0.82   0.410     -.216707    .0883
> 454
            552  |   -.056726   .0753709    -0.75   0.452    -.2044502    .0909
> 982
            553  |  -.1115208   .0911903    -1.22   0.221    -.2902506    .0672
> 089
            560  |  -.3244821   .1291482    -2.51   0.012     -.577608   -.0713
> 562
            565  |  -.2818524   .1334794    -2.11   0.035    -.5434672   -.0202
> 377
            570  |  -.1034175   .1006717    -1.03   0.304    -.3007305    .0938
> 954
            571  |  -.1494175   .1173415    -1.27   0.203    -.3794026    .0805
> 676
            572  |  -.0741274   .0888278    -0.83   0.404    -.2482267     .099
> 972
            581  |  -.0751984   .0891484    -0.84   0.399    -.2499261    .0995
> 293
            600  |  -.2684934   .1030612    -2.61   0.009    -.4704897   -.0664
> 972
            615  |  -.1104853    .100259    -1.10   0.270    -.3069893    .0860
> 188
            616  |  -.3952569   .1142512    -3.46   0.001    -.6191851   -.1713
> 288
            620  |  -.0596368   .0894825    -0.67   0.505    -.2350193    .1157
> 457
            625  |  -.0499059   .0579229    -0.86   0.389    -.1634327    .0636
> 209
            630  |  -.0807378   .0872667    -0.93   0.355    -.2517773    .0903
> 018
            640  |   .0289781   .0700142     0.41   0.679    -.1082471    .1662
> 034
            651  |  -.3368988   .0924745    -3.64   0.000    -.5181456    -.155
> 652
            652  |  -.0597689    .080422    -0.74   0.457    -.2173932    .0978
> 554
            660  |   -.112699   .0961686    -1.17   0.241     -.301186     .075
> 788
            663  |   -.181605   .0986446    -1.84   0.066    -.3749448    .0117
> 348
            670  |   -.039211   .0832894    -0.47   0.638    -.2024552    .1240
> 332
            679  |  -.0997672   .0757026    -1.32   0.188    -.2481415    .0486
> 071
            690  |  -.2014538   .1350304    -1.49   0.136    -.4661086    .0632
> 009
            698  |  -.4402274   .1211951    -3.63   0.000    -.6777655   -.2026
> 893
            701  |   .0543719   .0843272     0.64   0.519    -.1109063    .2196
> 501
            703  |  -.1261814   .0688539    -1.83   0.067    -.2611326    .0087
> 698
            704  |  -.1473473   .0730154    -2.02   0.044    -.2904549   -.0042
> 396
            705  |   -.327338   .1023858    -3.20   0.001    -.5280105   -.1266
> 656
            710  |  -.1108067   .0855877    -1.29   0.195    -.2785556    .0569
> 422
            712  |   .0955172   .1433226     0.67   0.505      -.18539    .3764
> 243
            760  |   .0639489   .1574747     0.41   0.685    -.2446958    .3725
> 937
            770  |  -.0670742   .0540944    -1.24   0.215    -.1730974    .0389
> 489
            771  |    -.09673   .0716882    -1.35   0.177    -.2372363    .0437
> 763
            780  |  -.1628041   .1062982    -1.53   0.126    -.3711448    .0455
> 366
            800  |  -.2498861   .0912237    -2.74   0.006    -.4286813   -.0710
> 909
            812  |   .1411335   .0843178     1.67   0.094    -.0241264    .3063
> 934
            816  |   .1656678   .0865517     1.91   0.056    -.0039703    .3353
> 059
            820  |  -.0314115   .1006709    -0.31   0.755    -.2287228    .1658
> 998
            840  |   .2328897    .060011     3.88   0.000     .1152704    .3505
> 091
            850  |  -.0847177   .1191718    -0.71   0.477    -.3182901    .1488
> 546
                 |
           _cons |  -.2282474   .2074613    -1.10   0.271    -.6348641    .1783
> 692
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             41.124
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               36.776
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         37.236
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal v2cagenmob debt_crisis
                      ungaidealpoint2 1975.year 1976.year 1977.year 1978.year
                      1979.year 1980.year 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year
                      1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year
                      1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year
                      1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year
                      1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year
                      2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year
                      2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year
                      2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 95.ccode 130.ccode 135.ccode
                      140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccode 155.ccode 165.ccode
                      290.ccode 310.ccode 339.ccode 346.ccode 355.ccode
                      360.ccode 365.ccode 370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode
                      402.ccode 411.ccode 420.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode
                      437.ccode 438.ccode 439.ccode 450.ccode 451.ccode
                      452.ccode 461.ccode 471.ccode 475.ccode 482.ccode
                      490.ccode 500.ccode 510.ccode 517.ccode 522.ccode
                      530.ccode 541.ccode 551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode
                      560.ccode 565.ccode 570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode
                      581.ccode 600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode
                      625.ccode 630.ccode 640.ccode 651.ccode 652.ccode
                      660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode 690.ccode
                      698.ccode 701.ccode 703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode
                      710.ccode 712.ccode 760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode
                      780.ccode 800.ccode 812.ccode 816.ccode 820.ccode
                      840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Col 4 adds state capacity *
. ivreg2 theta_mean  l.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liq
> uidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal capacity debt_cri
> sis ungaidealpoint2 i.year i.ccode, robust
Warning: time variable year has 37 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2680
                                                      F(154,  2525) =  1148.31
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  2993.999363                Centered R2   =   0.9631
Total (uncentered) SS   =  4693.124651                Uncentered R2 =   0.9765
Residual SS             =   110.482671                Root MSE      =     .203

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |  -.1640529   .0788835    -2.08   0.038    -.3186617    -.009
> 444
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8563699   .0166737    51.36   0.000     .8236901    .8890
> 497
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0142998   .0876142     0.16   0.870    -.1574209    .1860
> 204
     e_migdppcln |  -.0013357   .0216956    -0.06   0.951    -.0438584     .041
> 187
     v2xcl_acjst |   .3573725   .1161105     3.08   0.002     .1298002    .5849
> 449
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0203947   .0110495    -1.85   0.065    -.0420514     .001
> 262
         actotal |  -.0419241   .0049588    -8.45   0.000    -.0516433    -.032
> 205
        capacity |  -.0109063   .0216439    -0.50   0.614    -.0533275     .031
> 515
     debt_crisis |   .0449069   .0306688     1.46   0.143    -.0152029    .1050
> 166
 ungaidealpoint2 |   .0280763   .0181812     1.54   0.123    -.0075583    .0637
> 109
                 |
            year |
           1975  |  -.0246962   .0338802    -0.73   0.466    -.0911001    .0417
> 077
           1976  |  -.0424585   .0409698    -1.04   0.300    -.1227578    .0378
> 408
           1977  |  -.0299353   .0399433    -0.75   0.454    -.1082228    .0483
> 522
           1978  |  -.0261876   .0410736    -0.64   0.524    -.1066904    .0543
> 151
           1979  |   .0089038   .0403931     0.22   0.826    -.0702652    .0880
> 728
           1980  |   .0568984   .0503185     1.13   0.258    -.0417241    .1555
> 209
           1981  |   .0212978   .0451368     0.47   0.637    -.0671687    .1097
> 642
           1982  |   .0243794   .0429782     0.57   0.571    -.0598563    .1086
> 151
           1983  |   .0074528   .0470945     0.16   0.874    -.0848507    .0997
> 563
           1984  |   .0205881   .0415489     0.50   0.620    -.0608462    .1020
> 223
           1985  |   .0378338   .0412624     0.92   0.359     -.043039    .1187
> 067
           1986  |   .0757673   .0439277     1.72   0.085    -.0103293     .161
> 864
           1987  |    .072965   .0467571     1.56   0.119    -.0186771    .1646
> 072
           1988  |   .0488815   .0522054     0.94   0.349    -.0534393    .1512
> 023
           1989  |    .045387   .0541062     0.84   0.402    -.0606592    .1514
> 332
           1990  |  -.0410947   .0750138    -0.55   0.584    -.1881189    .1059
> 296
           1991  |  -.0019965   .0537712    -0.04   0.970    -.1073861    .1033
> 931
           1992  |   .0500356   .0520355     0.96   0.336    -.0519522    .1520
> 233
           1993  |   .0248716   .0492607     0.50   0.614    -.0716776    .1214
> 208
           1994  |   .0025561   .0499127     0.05   0.959    -.0952709    .1003
> 831
           1995  |   .0853057   .0552989     1.54   0.123    -.0230782    .1936
> 896
           1996  |   .0967719   .0530568     1.82   0.068    -.0072176    .2007
> 613
           1997  |   .0358955   .0496528     0.72   0.470    -.0614222    .1332
> 132
           1998  |   .0414942    .050504     0.82   0.411    -.0574917    .1404
> 802
           1999  |   .0678033   .0480625     1.41   0.158    -.0263974     .162
> 004
           2000  |   .0525877   .0458569     1.15   0.251    -.0372901    .1424
> 655
           2001  |    .079236   .0489519     1.62   0.106    -.0167078    .1751
> 799
           2002  |   .0850711   .0518193     1.64   0.101    -.0164929    .1866
> 352
           2003  |   .0558024   .0481843     1.16   0.247    -.0386371    .1502
> 419
           2004  |   .0846988   .0603331     1.40   0.160    -.0335519    .2029
> 495
           2005  |   .0167624   .0453882     0.37   0.712    -.0721969    .1057
> 217
           2006  |   .0316847   .0455053     0.70   0.486     -.057504    .1208
> 734
           2007  |   .0266028   .0460586     0.58   0.564    -.0636704     .116
> 876
           2008  |   .0629916   .0469799     1.34   0.180    -.0290872    .1550
> 704
           2009  |    .070922   .0486916     1.46   0.145    -.0245117    .1663
> 558
           2010  |   .0507088   .0475516     1.07   0.286    -.0424906    .1439
> 082
           2011  |  -.0156013   .0504126    -0.31   0.757    -.1144081    .0832
> 055
           2012  |    .045312   .0449011     1.01   0.313    -.0426925    .1333
> 165
           2013  |   .0898804   .0548791     1.64   0.101    -.0176806    .1974
> 414
           2014  |   .0307689   .0530047     0.58   0.562    -.0731184    .1346
> 562
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.0843451   .0728659    -1.16   0.247    -.2271595    .0584
> 694
             90  |  -.0113933   .0653205    -0.17   0.862    -.1394191    .1166
> 325
             91  |  -.0715669   .0926282    -0.77   0.440    -.2531147     .109
> 981
             92  |  -.1329248   .0804966    -1.65   0.099    -.2906952    .0248
> 457
             93  |  -.0976564   .0626389    -1.56   0.119    -.2204264    .0251
> 136
             95  |  -.0012702   .0634189    -0.02   0.984     -.125569    .1230
> 286
            130  |  -.0378284   .0588596    -0.64   0.520    -.1531911    .0775
> 344
            135  |    .032335   .0798116     0.41   0.685    -.1240928    .1887
> 628
            140  |  -.0736474   .0613015    -1.20   0.230    -.1937962    .0465
> 013
            145  |  -.0956421   .0577469    -1.66   0.098     -.208824    .0175
> 398
            150  |  -.0730521   .0646233    -1.13   0.258    -.1997114    .0536
> 072
            155  |   .0100145   .0762888     0.13   0.896    -.1395087    .1595
> 377
            160  |  -.1724249   .2169066    -0.79   0.427     -.597554    .2527
> 041
            165  |  -.0462662   .0706957    -0.65   0.513    -.1848272    .0922
> 948
            290  |   .0950183   .0991136     0.96   0.338    -.0992407    .2892
> 774
            310  |   .2928998   .1029339     2.85   0.004      .091153    .4946
> 466
            339  |   .0670284   .0688955     0.97   0.331    -.0680043    .2020
> 611
            346  |   .1883682   .2095679     0.90   0.369    -.2223773    .5991
> 137
            355  |   .1809198   .1476298     1.23   0.220    -.1084293    .4702
> 688
            360  |   .0145321   .0637475     0.23   0.820    -.1104108     .139
> 475
            365  |  -.1494136   .0760317    -1.97   0.049     -.298433   -.0003
> 942
            370  |  -.1485133   .0920148    -1.61   0.107     -.328859    .0318
> 324
            372  |  -.1095057   .0867974    -1.26   0.207    -.2796255     .060
> 614
            373  |   .1543718   .0697858     2.21   0.027     .0175942    .2911
> 495
            402  |   .0660082    .094707     0.70   0.486    -.1196141    .2516
> 305
            404  |   .0544327   .0750946     0.72   0.469      -.09275    .2016
> 153
            411  |   .0935027   .0856978     1.09   0.275    -.0744619    .2614
> 674
            420  |   .0108303   .0843344     0.13   0.898     -.154462    .1761
> 227
            432  |  -.1127091   .0933574    -1.21   0.227    -.2956862     .070
> 268
            433  |  -.0763827   .0913697    -0.84   0.403    -.2554641    .1026
> 986
            434  |   .0555228   .1246326     0.45   0.656    -.1887527    .2997
> 982
            435  |    .014179   .0852914     0.17   0.868     -.152989    .1813
> 471
            436  |   -.030539   .0895462    -0.34   0.733    -.2060464    .1449
> 684
            437  |  -.0384026   .0739821    -0.52   0.604    -.1834049    .1065
> 997
            438  |   .0622613   .0799318     0.78   0.436    -.0944022    .2189
> 247
            439  |  -.0401469   .0895244    -0.45   0.654    -.2156116    .1353
> 178
            450  |   .0140383   .1066285     0.13   0.895    -.1949498    .2230
> 264
            451  |    .037453   .0843276     0.44   0.657    -.1278261     .202
> 732
            452  |   .1058551   .0860952     1.23   0.219    -.0628883    .2745
> 985
            461  |  -.0281624   .0746401    -0.38   0.706    -.1744542    .1181
> 295
            471  |  -.0977532   .0751563    -1.30   0.193    -.2450568    .0495
> 504
            475  |  -.2011788   .0906837    -2.22   0.027    -.3789156   -.0234
> 419
            481  |   .0691332   .0737153     0.94   0.348    -.0753461    .2136
> 126
            482  |  -.0149568   .0725405    -0.21   0.837    -.1571335      .12
> 722
            483  |  -.0058635    .070811    -0.08   0.934    -.1446504    .1329
> 234
            484  |   .1314361   .0781302     1.68   0.093    -.0216962    .2845
> 684
            490  |  -.0979424   .0681981    -1.44   0.151    -.2316082    .0357
> 233
            500  |  -.1378981   .0898083    -1.54   0.125    -.3139191    .0381
> 229
            501  |   .0155141   .0595026     0.26   0.794    -.1011088     .132
> 137
            510  |  -.0246698   .0814175    -0.30   0.762    -.1842451    .1349
> 055
            516  |  -.1017593   .1298852    -0.78   0.433    -.3563296     .152
> 811
            517  |  -.0699647   .1055999    -0.66   0.508    -.2769366    .1370
> 072
            522  |    .015219   .0812397     0.19   0.851     -.144008    .1744
> 459
            530  |  -.0314546    .081734    -0.38   0.700    -.1916504    .1287
> 412
            540  |   .0057421   .0767123     0.07   0.940    -.1446113    .1560
> 956
            541  |  -.0065905   .0833858    -0.08   0.937    -.1700237    .1568
> 427
            551  |   -.022445   .0738579    -0.30   0.761    -.1672038    .1223
> 138
            552  |  -.0864343   .0711962    -1.21   0.225    -.2259762    .0531
> 077
            553  |  -.0260529   .0839957    -0.31   0.756    -.1906814    .1385
> 756
            560  |  -.2341331   .1046885    -2.24   0.025    -.4393187   -.0289
> 474
            565  |  -.0874684    .110885    -0.79   0.430    -.3047991    .1298
> 622
            570  |  -.0422919   .0877146    -0.48   0.630    -.2142092    .1296
> 255
            571  |    .017589   .1001487     0.18   0.861    -.1786988    .2138
> 768
            572  |  -.0061708   .0811836    -0.08   0.939    -.1652878    .1529
> 461
            580  |   .0570555    .070003     0.82   0.415    -.0801479     .194
> 259
            581  |   .0014717   .0836791     0.02   0.986    -.1625363    .1654
> 798
            600  |  -.1217455   .0847826    -1.44   0.151    -.2879164    .0444
> 254
            615  |  -.0704118   .0856162    -0.82   0.411    -.2382166     .097
> 393
            616  |  -.1976915   .0910021    -2.17   0.030    -.3760524   -.0193
> 307
            620  |  -.0929453   .0782717    -1.19   0.235     -.246355    .0604
> 644
            625  |  -.0565347   .0547873    -1.03   0.302    -.1639159    .0508
> 464
            630  |  -.0656172   .0750684    -0.87   0.382    -.2127486    .0815
> 143
            640  |    .059754   .0801528     0.75   0.456    -.0973426    .2168
> 506
            645  |   .1937685    .085739     2.26   0.024     .0257231    .3618
> 139
            651  |  -.1918478   .0768517    -2.50   0.013    -.3424743   -.0412
> 213
            652  |  -.0786034   .0722017    -1.09   0.276    -.2201162    .0629
> 093
            660  |  -.0356424   .0803171    -0.44   0.657    -.1930611    .1217
> 763
            663  |  -.0846196   .0828171    -1.02   0.307    -.2469382    .0776
> 989
            670  |   .0177796   .0716073     0.25   0.804    -.1225681    .1581
> 272
            679  |  -.0691772   .0675746    -1.02   0.306    -.2016211    .0632
> 666
            690  |  -.0766451   .1145237    -0.67   0.503    -.3011073    .1478
> 172
            694  |   .1407525   .0977499     1.44   0.150    -.0508339    .3323
> 388
            698  |   .0483334   .0941738     0.51   0.608    -.1362438    .2329
> 107
            700  |  -.0973644   .0797564    -1.22   0.222    -.2536841    .0589
> 554
            701  |   .0555078   .0708636     0.78   0.433    -.0833824     .194
> 398
            702  |   .1251035    .064894     1.93   0.054    -.0020865    .2522
> 935
            703  |  -.0365452   .0709741    -0.51   0.607    -.1756519    .1025
> 615
            704  |   -.063395   .0684768    -0.93   0.355    -.1976071    .0708
> 171
            705  |  -.1952581   .0882449    -2.21   0.027    -.3682149   -.0223
> 014
            710  |  -.1010667   .0771425    -1.31   0.190    -.2522633    .0501
> 299
            712  |   .1548748   .1249879     1.24   0.215    -.0900968    .3998
> 465
            760  |   .0593227   .1447345     0.41   0.682    -.2243518    .3429
> 972
            770  |  -.0288785   .0574807    -0.50   0.615    -.1415387    .0837
> 817
            771  |  -.0161961   .0680147    -0.24   0.812    -.1495024    .1171
> 102
            775  |  -.0206235   .0577688    -0.36   0.721    -.1338481    .0926
> 012
            780  |  -.0871976   .1049573    -0.83   0.406    -.2929101    .1185
> 149
            790  |  -.0457985   .0730506    -0.63   0.531     -.188975    .0973
> 781
            800  |  -.1654911   .0797144    -2.08   0.038    -.3217285   -.0092
> 537
            811  |   .0224523   .0760427     0.30   0.768    -.1265887    .1714
> 933
            812  |   .1646063   .0784986     2.10   0.036     .0107518    .3184
> 607
            816  |   .1292673    .074955     1.72   0.085    -.0176417    .2761
> 764
            820  |  -.0311167   .0818177    -0.38   0.704    -.1914764     .129
> 243
            840  |   .1737829   .0626035     2.78   0.006     .0510823    .2964
> 835
            850  |  -.0265554   .0710408    -0.37   0.709    -.1657928    .1126
> 821
                 |
           _cons |  -.1330637   .1922921    -0.69   0.489    -.5099493    .2438
> 219
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             61.991
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               55.929
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         58.269
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal capacity debt_crisis
                      ungaidealpoint2 1975.year 1976.year 1977.year 1978.year
                      1979.year 1980.year 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year
                      1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year
                      1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year
                      1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year
                      1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year
                      2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year
                      2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year
                      2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode 93.ccode
                      95.ccode 130.ccode 135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccod
> e
                      155.ccode 160.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode 310.ccode
                      339.ccode 346.ccode 355.ccode 360.ccode 365.ccode
                      370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode 404.ccode
                      411.ccode 420.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode
                      435.ccode 436.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode 439.ccode
                      450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode 471.ccode
                      475.ccode 481.ccode 482.ccode 483.ccode 484.ccode
                      490.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode 510.ccode 516.ccode
                      517.ccode 522.ccode 530.ccode 540.ccode 541.ccode
                      551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode 565.ccode
                      570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode 580.ccode 581.ccode
                      600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode 625.ccode
                      630.ccode 640.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode 652.ccode
                      660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode 690.ccode
                      694.ccode 698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode 702.ccode
                      703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode 712.ccode
                      760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode 775.ccode 780.ccode
                      790.ccode 800.ccode 811.ccode 812.ccode 816.ccode
                      820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Col 5 adds coups *
. ivreg2 theta_mean  l.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liq
> uidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal e_pt_coup debt_cr
> isis ungaidealpoint2 i.year i.ccode, robust
Warning: time variable year has 37 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2680
                                                      F(154,  2525) =  1143.33
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  2993.999363                Centered R2   =   0.9639
Total (uncentered) SS   =  4693.124651                Uncentered R2 =   0.9770
Residual SS             =  108.1106866                Root MSE      =    .2008

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |  -.1520689   .0752373    -2.02   0.043    -.2995313   -.0046
> 065
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |    .854424   .0163345    52.31   0.000     .8224089     .886
> 439
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0002444   .0852487     0.00   0.998    -.1668401    .1673
> 288
     e_migdppcln |   -.001677    .021113    -0.08   0.937    -.0430576    .0397
> 037
     v2xcl_acjst |   .3404932   .1115458     3.05   0.002     .1218674    .5591
> 189
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0231031   .0107616    -2.15   0.032    -.0441954   -.0020
> 107
         actotal |  -.0408699   .0047942    -8.52   0.000    -.0502664   -.0314
> 734
       e_pt_coup |  -.0641768   .0177542    -3.61   0.000    -.0989743   -.0293
> 793
     debt_crisis |   .0457082   .0296094     1.54   0.123    -.0123252    .1037
> 416
 ungaidealpoint2 |   .0281422   .0177758     1.58   0.113    -.0066978    .0629
> 821
                 |
            year |
           1975  |  -.0199616     .03385    -0.59   0.555    -.0863063    .0463
> 831
           1976  |  -.0381983   .0395847    -0.96   0.335     -.115783    .0393
> 863
           1977  |  -.0319791    .039756    -0.80   0.421    -.1098995    .0459
> 413
           1978  |  -.0255977   .0398115    -0.64   0.520    -.1036269    .0524
> 314
           1979  |   .0025498   .0398679     0.06   0.949    -.0755898    .0806
> 895
           1980  |   .0540336   .0498573     1.08   0.278    -.0436849    .1517
> 522
           1981  |   .0146218   .0440519     0.33   0.740    -.0717184    .1009
> 619
           1982  |    .022667   .0419976     0.54   0.589    -.0596469    .1049
> 808
           1983  |   .0038935   .0460709     0.08   0.933    -.0864039    .0941
> 908
           1984  |   .0161277   .0406166     0.40   0.691    -.0634794    .0957
> 349
           1985  |   .0341526   .0405442     0.84   0.400    -.0453125    .1136
> 178
           1986  |    .069438    .042846     1.62   0.105    -.0145386    .1534
> 146
           1987  |   .0695311   .0456675     1.52   0.128    -.0199755    .1590
> 377
           1988  |   .0425388   .0507947     0.84   0.402     -.057017    .1420
> 947
           1989  |   .0387936   .0529525     0.73   0.464    -.0649914    .1425
> 786
           1990  |  -.0494577   .0739303    -0.67   0.504    -.1943584     .095
> 443
           1991  |  -.0027064   .0528826    -0.05   0.959    -.1063544    .1009
> 416
           1992  |   .0487031   .0509074     0.96   0.339    -.0510735    .1484
> 798
           1993  |   .0199313   .0481628     0.41   0.679    -.0744661    .1143
> 286
           1994  |   .0000592   .0485938     0.00   0.999     -.095183    .0953
> 014
           1995  |   .0784656   .0541956     1.45   0.148     -.027756    .1846
> 871
           1996  |   .0875156   .0514013     1.70   0.089     -.013229    .1882
> 602
           1997  |   .0258321   .0480385     0.54   0.591    -.0683216    .1199
> 858
           1998  |   .0317167   .0488239     0.65   0.516    -.0639763    .1274
> 097
           1999  |   .0643537   .0465261     1.38   0.167    -.0268358    .1555
> 433
           2000  |   .0485505   .0450778     1.08   0.281    -.0398003    .1369
> 014
           2001  |   .0717446   .0475171     1.51   0.131    -.0213873    .1648
> 764
           2002  |   .0772472   .0504817     1.53   0.126    -.0216951    .1761
> 894
           2003  |   .0485156   .0470157     1.03   0.302    -.0436335    .1406
> 648
           2004  |    .077981   .0585665     1.33   0.183    -.0368073    .1927
> 693
           2005  |   .0144698   .0441483     0.33   0.743    -.0720594    .1009
> 989
           2006  |   .0262822   .0446365     0.59   0.556    -.0612036    .1137
> 681
           2007  |   .0197624   .0452937     0.44   0.663    -.0690117    .1085
> 364
           2008  |   .0582232   .0461484     1.26   0.207    -.0322261    .1486
> 725
           2009  |   .0624638   .0473114     1.32   0.187    -.0302649    .1551
> 926
           2010  |   .0455641    .046564     0.98   0.328    -.0456996    .1368
> 279
           2011  |  -.0195386   .0497584    -0.39   0.695    -.1170633    .0779
> 861
           2012  |   .0386762   .0440129     0.88   0.380    -.0475875    .1249
> 399
           2013  |   .0814758   .0552421     1.47   0.140    -.0267966    .1897
> 482
           2014  |   .0228392   .0507368     0.45   0.653     -.076603    .1222
> 815
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.1158503   .0650116    -1.78   0.075    -.2432706    .0115
> 701
             90  |   -.014065   .0667521    -0.21   0.833    -.1448966    .1167
> 667
             91  |  -.0491615   .0939527    -0.52   0.601    -.2333055    .1349
> 824
             92  |  -.1440605   .0786802    -1.83   0.067    -.2982708    .0101
> 498
             93  |  -.1144542   .0626254    -1.83   0.068    -.2371976    .0082
> 893
             95  |  -.0155672   .0585272    -0.27   0.790    -.1302784    .0991
> 439
            130  |  -.0254851   .0620847    -0.41   0.681    -.1471689    .0961
> 986
            135  |   .0171844   .0721661     0.24   0.812    -.1242586    .1586
> 274
            140  |  -.0960982   .0576158    -1.67   0.095     -.209023    .0168
> 266
            145  |  -.0571076   .0687911    -0.83   0.406    -.1919356    .0777
> 204
            150  |  -.0944486   .0621986    -1.52   0.129    -.2163555    .0274
> 584
            155  |  -.0251464   .0632495    -0.40   0.691    -.1491131    .0988
> 203
            160  |  -.1775907   .2018112    -0.88   0.379    -.5731335     .217
> 952
            165  |  -.0613793   .0627479    -0.98   0.328     -.184363    .0616
> 044
            290  |   .0661687   .0963184     0.69   0.492    -.1226118    .2549
> 493
            310  |   .2676019   .0987767     2.71   0.007     .0740032    .4612
> 007
            339  |   .0411194   .0614222     0.67   0.503    -.0792659    .1615
> 046
            346  |    .174901   .2110445     0.83   0.407    -.2387385    .5885
> 406
            355  |   .1441271   .1473024     0.98   0.328    -.1445802    .4328
> 345
            360  |  -.0014425   .0606178    -0.02   0.981    -.1202512    .1173
> 662
            365  |  -.1719014   .0752456    -2.28   0.022    -.3193801   -.0244
> 226
            370  |  -.1662646   .0935824    -1.78   0.076    -.3496827    .0171
> 535
            372  |  -.1239505   .0866589    -1.43   0.153    -.2937988    .0458
> 977
            373  |   .1430637   .0681885     2.10   0.036     .0094167    .2767
> 108
            402  |   .0497133    .094682     0.53   0.600      -.13586    .2352
> 865
            404  |   .0554345    .072633     0.76   0.445    -.0869235    .1977
> 925
            411  |   .0878899   .0844411     1.04   0.298    -.0776116    .2533
> 914
            420  |   .0022038   .0827804     0.03   0.979    -.1600429    .1644
> 504
            432  |  -.1130649     .09236    -1.22   0.221    -.2940872    .0679
> 573
            433  |    -.09029   .0909721    -0.99   0.321    -.2685919     .088
> 012
            434  |   .0493788   .1247792     0.40   0.692     -.195184    .2939
> 416
            435  |   .0171401   .0849183     0.20   0.840    -.1492967    .1835
> 769
            436  |   -.033919   .0877681    -0.39   0.699    -.2059413    .1381
> 034
            437  |  -.0556631   .0686674    -0.81   0.418    -.1902488    .0789
> 225
            438  |   .0514707    .075528     0.68   0.496    -.0965615     .199
> 503
            439  |  -.0445994   .0867075    -0.51   0.607    -.2145429    .1253
> 442
            450  |   .0081353   .1011914     0.08   0.936    -.1901963    .2064
> 669
            451  |   .0307543   .0810369     0.38   0.704    -.1280751    .1895
> 836
            452  |   .1029735   .0819275     1.26   0.209    -.0576014    .2635
> 484
            461  |  -.0432018   .0704679    -0.61   0.540    -.1813163    .0949
> 127
            471  |  -.1147118   .0736337    -1.56   0.119    -.2590312    .0296
> 076
            475  |  -.1946776   .0906176    -2.15   0.032    -.3722848   -.0170
> 704
            481  |   .0542058   .0727247     0.75   0.456     -.088332    .1967
> 437
            482  |  -.0215947   .0720482    -0.30   0.764    -.1628066    .1196
> 173
            483  |  -.0158622   .0685867    -0.23   0.817    -.1502897    .1185
> 652
            484  |   .1082489   .0740433     1.46   0.144    -.0368733    .2533
> 711
            490  |  -.1144599   .0671464    -1.70   0.088    -.2460643    .0171
> 446
            500  |   -.148703   .0896862    -1.66   0.097    -.3244848    .0270
> 788
            501  |  -.0019681   .0545559    -0.04   0.971    -.1088958    .1049
> 596
            510  |  -.0410422   .0799714    -0.51   0.608    -.1977833    .1156
> 989
            516  |   -.103467   .1297043    -0.80   0.425    -.3576828    .1507
> 487
            517  |  -.0831971   .1030839    -0.81   0.420    -.2852378    .1188
> 435
            522  |  -.0030025   .0800942    -0.04   0.970    -.1599842    .1539
> 793
            530  |  -.0444775   .0785793    -0.57   0.571    -.1984901    .1095
> 351
            540  |  -.0125747   .0768997    -0.16   0.870    -.1632953    .1381
> 458
            541  |  -.0214065   .0821399    -0.26   0.794    -.1823978    .1395
> 848
            551  |  -.0339965   .0712383    -0.48   0.633    -.1736211     .105
> 628
            552  |  -.1057029   .0688018    -1.54   0.124     -.240552    .0291
> 463
            553  |  -.0491141   .0802229    -0.61   0.540     -.206348    .1081
> 199
            560  |  -.2576272   .1066824    -2.41   0.016    -.4667208   -.0485
> 335
            565  |  -.1057756   .1128533    -0.94   0.349    -.3269639    .1154
> 127
            570  |   -.046742   .0871777    -0.54   0.592    -.2176072    .1241
> 232
            571  |  -.0018324   .1011547    -0.02   0.986    -.2000921    .1964
> 272
            572  |  -.0091537   .0817627    -0.11   0.911    -.1694057    .1510
> 983
            580  |   .0517033   .0682454     0.76   0.449    -.0820553    .1854
> 619
            581  |   .0230189   .0826563     0.28   0.781    -.1389844    .1850
> 222
            600  |  -.1371989   .0856412    -1.60   0.109    -.3050525    .0306
> 547
            615  |  -.0790633   .0861391    -0.92   0.359    -.2478928    .0897
> 662
            616  |  -.2128204   .0920564    -2.31   0.021    -.3932476   -.0323
> 932
            620  |  -.1050502    .078641    -1.34   0.182    -.2591837    .0490
> 833
            625  |  -.0618684   .0549085    -1.13   0.260     -.169487    .0457
> 502
            630  |  -.0887116   .0747082    -1.19   0.235    -.2351369    .0577
> 137
            640  |   .0203352   .0614337     0.33   0.741    -.1000728    .1407
> 431
            645  |   .1649132   .0828322     1.99   0.046     .0025651    .3272
> 613
            651  |  -.2069238   .0764162    -2.71   0.007    -.3566969   -.0571
> 507
            652  |  -.0992169   .0688377    -1.44   0.149    -.2341364    .0357
> 026
            660  |  -.0504538   .0803894    -0.63   0.530    -.2080142    .1071
> 066
            663  |  -.1044086   .0821518    -1.27   0.204    -.2654233     .056
> 606
            670  |    -.00208    .071051    -0.03   0.977    -.1413374    .1371
> 775
            679  |  -.0870085    .065978    -1.32   0.187     -.216323     .042
> 306
            690  |   -.090212   .1155149    -0.78   0.435    -.3166171     .136
> 193
            694  |   .1270221   .0992972     1.28   0.201    -.0675968    .3216
> 411
            698  |   .0310239   .0957238     0.32   0.746    -.1565913     .218
> 639
            700  |  -.1099893   .0786123    -1.40   0.162    -.2640665     .044
> 088
            701  |   .0449969   .0703933     0.64   0.523    -.0929714    .1829
> 651
            702  |   .1112197   .0635179     1.75   0.080    -.0132731    .2357
> 126
            703  |  -.0480506     .06999    -0.69   0.492    -.1852285    .0891
> 273
            704  |  -.0800169    .067003    -1.19   0.232    -.2113403    .0513
> 066
            705  |  -.2111398   .0889331    -2.37   0.018    -.3854455    -.036
> 834
            710  |  -.1246027   .0747825    -1.67   0.096    -.2711738    .0219
> 684
            712  |    .136759   .1212911     1.13   0.260    -.1009672    .3744
> 851
            760  |   .0935335   .1466579     0.64   0.524    -.1939108    .3809
> 778
            770  |  -.0460305   .0529634    -0.87   0.385    -.1498368    .0577
> 759
            771  |  -.0048593   .0681536    -0.07   0.943     -.138438    .1287
> 193
            775  |  -.0322216   .0562655    -0.57   0.567    -.1424999    .0780
> 567
            780  |  -.1037516   .1030098    -1.01   0.314     -.305647    .0981
> 438
            790  |  -.0624548   .0710648    -0.88   0.379    -.2017393    .0768
> 297
            800  |  -.1614262    .079918    -2.02   0.043    -.3180626   -.0047
> 898
            811  |   .0057412   .0754888     0.08   0.939    -.1422142    .1536
> 967
            812  |   .1472424   .0758923     1.94   0.052    -.0015039    .2959
> 886
            816  |   .1070784   .0710691     1.51   0.132    -.0322144    .2463
> 713
            820  |  -.0478665   .0835393    -0.57   0.567    -.2116005    .1158
> 675
            840  |   .1479489   .0567432     2.61   0.009     .0367343    .2591
> 634
            850  |  -.0491925   .0710317    -0.69   0.489     -.188412     .090
> 027
                 |
           _cons |  -.1003827    .179023    -0.56   0.575    -.4512613    .2504
> 959
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             62.747
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               58.324
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         59.719
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal e_pt_coup debt_crisis
                      ungaidealpoint2 1975.year 1976.year 1977.year 1978.year
                      1979.year 1980.year 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year
                      1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year
                      1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year
                      1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year
                      1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year
                      2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year
                      2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year
                      2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode 93.ccode
                      95.ccode 130.ccode 135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccod
> e
                      155.ccode 160.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode 310.ccode
                      339.ccode 346.ccode 355.ccode 360.ccode 365.ccode
                      370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode 404.ccode
                      411.ccode 420.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode
                      435.ccode 436.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode 439.ccode
                      450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode 471.ccode
                      475.ccode 481.ccode 482.ccode 483.ccode 484.ccode
                      490.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode 510.ccode 516.ccode
                      517.ccode 522.ccode 530.ccode 540.ccode 541.ccode
                      551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode 565.ccode
                      570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode 580.ccode 581.ccode
                      600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode 625.ccode
                      630.ccode 640.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode 652.ccode
                      660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode 690.ccode
                      694.ccode 698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode 702.ccode
                      703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode 712.ccode
                      760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode 775.ccode 780.ccode
                      790.ccode 800.ccode 811.ccode 812.ccode 816.ccode
                      820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Col 6 adds corruption *
. ivreg2 theta_mean  l.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liq
> uidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal v2x_corr  debt_cr
> isis ungaidealpoint2 i.year i.ccode, robust
Warning: time variable year has 37 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2680
                                                      F(154,  2525) =  1168.22
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  2993.999363                Centered R2   =   0.9632
Total (uncentered) SS   =  4693.124651                Uncentered R2 =   0.9765
Residual SS             =  110.1434424                Root MSE      =    .2027

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |  -.1607722   .0768576    -2.09   0.036    -.3114103   -.0101
> 341
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8553019   .0164126    52.11   0.000     .8231338    .8874
> 699
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0073657   .0856889     0.09   0.931    -.1605815    .1753
> 129
     e_migdppcln |  -.0024569   .0211439    -0.12   0.907    -.0438981    .0389
> 844
     v2xcl_acjst |   .3563504   .1161892     3.07   0.002     .1286238    .5840
> 771
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0201403   .0106047    -1.90   0.058    -.0409252    .0006
> 446
         actotal |  -.0416728   .0049313    -8.45   0.000     -.051338   -.0320
> 075
        v2x_corr |   .0318811   .0571477     0.56   0.577    -.0801262    .1438
> 885
     debt_crisis |   .0440019   .0302585     1.45   0.146    -.0153037    .1033
> 074
 ungaidealpoint2 |   .0278244   .0181997     1.53   0.126    -.0078464    .0634
> 952
                 |
            year |
           1975  |  -.0248384   .0338702    -0.73   0.463    -.0912227    .0415
> 459
           1976  |  -.0429739   .0409826    -1.05   0.294    -.1232983    .0373
> 506
           1977  |  -.0306998   .0400397    -0.77   0.443    -.1091761    .0477
> 765
           1978  |  -.0271062    .040998    -0.66   0.509    -.1074608    .0532
> 485
           1979  |   .0076088   .0403887     0.19   0.851    -.0715515    .0867
> 691
           1980  |   .0551184   .0505596     1.09   0.276    -.0439767    .1542
> 135
           1981  |   .0188432   .0448027     0.42   0.674    -.0689684    .1066
> 548
           1982  |   .0219201   .0428981     0.51   0.609    -.0621585    .1059
> 988
           1983  |   .0050961   .0468206     0.11   0.913    -.0866706    .0968
> 629
           1984  |   .0184547   .0415246     0.44   0.657    -.0629321    .0998
> 415
           1985  |   .0353637   .0412391     0.86   0.391    -.0454635    .1161
> 908
           1986  |   .0727333   .0437487     1.66   0.096    -.0130126    .1584
> 791
           1987  |   .0696937   .0464497     1.50   0.134    -.0213462    .1607
> 335
           1988  |    .045087   .0518661     0.87   0.385    -.0565688    .1467
> 427
           1989  |   .0416079   .0537844     0.77   0.439    -.0638076    .1470
> 234
           1990  |  -.0451436   .0741904    -0.61   0.543    -.1905541    .1002
> 669
           1991  |   -.005677   .0539088    -0.11   0.916    -.1113363    .0999
> 823
           1992  |   .0456939   .0523511     0.87   0.383    -.0569124    .1483
> 003
           1993  |   .0200918   .0495987     0.41   0.685    -.0771198    .1173
> 033
           1994  |  -.0026562   .0504194    -0.05   0.958    -.1014764    .0961
> 639
           1995  |   .0790465   .0557436     1.42   0.156     -.030209     .188
> 302
           1996  |    .090025   .0527948     1.71   0.088    -.0134509    .1935
> 009
           1997  |   .0294295     .04959     0.59   0.553    -.0677652    .1266
> 242
           1998  |   .0350661   .0502975     0.70   0.486    -.0635151    .1336
> 473
           1999  |    .061322   .0481074     1.27   0.202    -.0329667    .1556
> 108
           2000  |   .0465224   .0465709     1.00   0.318     -.044755    .1377
> 998
           2001  |   .0730852   .0492495     1.48   0.138    -.0234421    .1696
> 125
           2002  |   .0787593   .0522452     1.51   0.132    -.0236394     .181
> 158
           2003  |   .0496145   .0488306     1.02   0.310    -.0460918    .1453
> 208
           2004  |   .0787712   .0601125     1.31   0.190    -.0390472    .1965
> 896
           2005  |   .0112452   .0466377     0.24   0.809     -.080163    .1026
> 534
           2006  |   .0261643   .0465303     0.56   0.574    -.0650335    .1173
> 621
           2007  |   .0208214   .0471385     0.44   0.659    -.0715683    .1132
> 111
           2008  |   .0569865   .0481948     1.18   0.237    -.0374735    .1514
> 465
           2009  |   .0641732   .0492695     1.30   0.193    -.0323932    .1607
> 397
           2010  |   .0440695   .0484662     0.91   0.363    -.0509224    .1390
> 615
           2011  |  -.0212259   .0518485    -0.41   0.682    -.1228471    .0803
> 953
           2012  |   .0399356   .0458832     0.87   0.384    -.0499937     .129
> 865
           2013  |   .0835262   .0557025     1.50   0.134    -.0256486     .192
> 701
           2014  |   .0250547   .0521612     0.48   0.631    -.0771793    .1272
> 888
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.0997112    .066005    -1.51   0.131    -.2290787    .0296
> 562
             90  |    -.02094   .0627348    -0.33   0.739    -.1438978    .1020
> 179
             91  |  -.0814282   .0918043    -0.89   0.375    -.2613612    .0985
> 049
             92  |  -.1443111   .0772724    -1.87   0.062    -.2957622      .00
> 714
             93  |  -.1027176   .0631553    -1.63   0.104    -.2264997    .0210
> 645
             95  |  -.0040921   .0622774    -0.07   0.948    -.1261536    .1179
> 693
            130  |  -.0431047   .0582533    -0.74   0.459     -.157279    .0710
> 696
            135  |   .0256181   .0749552     0.34   0.733    -.1212913    .1725
> 275
            140  |  -.0865111   .0583342    -1.48   0.138     -.200844    .0278
> 218
            145  |  -.1021003   .0572304    -1.78   0.074    -.2142698    .0100
> 691
            150  |  -.0879483   .0627282    -1.40   0.161    -.2108933    .0349
> 967
            155  |   .0045702   .0713914     0.06   0.949    -.1353544    .1444
> 948
            160  |  -.1758492   .2160922    -0.81   0.416    -.5993821    .2476
> 838
            165  |  -.0413836   .0752975    -0.55   0.583    -.1889639    .1061
> 968
            290  |     .09128   .0985018     0.93   0.354    -.1017799      .28
> 434
            310  |   .2796841   .1011792     2.76   0.006     .0813765    .4779
> 917
            339  |   .0690698   .0741251     0.93   0.351    -.0762127    .2143
> 524
            346  |   .1898617   .2098194     0.90   0.366    -.2213767       .6
> 011
            355  |   .1670159   .1423984     1.17   0.241    -.1120798    .4461
> 116
            360  |   .0137566   .0669127     0.21   0.837    -.1173899    .1449
> 032
            365  |   -.163527   .0763325    -2.14   0.032     -.313136    -.013
> 918
            370  |  -.1518228   .0934516    -1.62   0.104    -.3349845     .031
> 339
            372  |  -.1152363   .0876381    -1.31   0.189    -.2870039    .0565
> 313
            373  |   .1431951   .0675124     2.12   0.034     .0108732    .2755
> 171
            402  |   .0675149     .09477     0.71   0.476    -.1182309    .2532
> 607
            404  |    .054528   .0751561     0.73   0.468    -.0927753    .2018
> 314
            411  |    .090922   .0843621     1.08   0.281    -.0744247    .2562
> 686
            420  |   .0160422   .0840349     0.19   0.849    -.1486633    .1807
> 477
            432  |  -.1165629   .0933558    -1.25   0.212    -.2995368     .066
> 411
            433  |  -.0732526   .0907998    -0.81   0.420    -.2512169    .1047
> 118
            434  |   .0581279   .1283165     0.45   0.651    -.1933677    .3096
> 235
            435  |   .0032446   .0857588     0.04   0.970    -.1648396    .1713
> 288
            436  |  -.0319608   .0875039    -0.37   0.715    -.2034654    .1395
> 438
            437  |  -.0451877   .0700287    -0.65   0.519    -.1824414     .092
> 066
            438  |   .0536704   .0764165     0.70   0.482    -.0961031     .203
> 444
            439  |  -.0417638   .0871116    -0.48   0.632    -.2124995    .1289
> 719
            450  |      .0095   .1025176     0.09   0.926    -.1914308    .2104
> 308
            451  |   .0345383   .0826971     0.42   0.676    -.1275451    .1966
> 217
            452  |   .1005927   .0842615     1.19   0.233    -.0645569    .2657
> 423
            461  |  -.0343113   .0717129    -0.48   0.632    -.1748659    .1062
> 433
            471  |  -.1070653   .0743556    -1.44   0.150    -.2527996     .038
> 669
            475  |  -.2095127   .0918756    -2.28   0.023    -.3895856   -.0294
> 398
            481  |   .0607671   .0748391     0.81   0.417    -.0859148    .2074
> 489
            482  |  -.0198271   .0722768    -0.27   0.784    -.1614871    .1218
> 329
            483  |  -.0113822   .0689488    -0.17   0.869    -.1465194     .123
> 755
            484  |   .1217286   .0751308     1.62   0.105     -.025525    .2689
> 822
            490  |  -.1004394   .0674925    -1.49   0.137    -.2327221    .0318
> 434
            500  |  -.1454067   .0909587    -1.60   0.110    -.3236826    .0328
> 691
            501  |   .0045896   .0553765     0.08   0.934    -.1039464    .1131
> 256
            510  |  -.0253622    .080586    -0.31   0.753    -.1833079    .1325
> 834
            516  |  -.0968443   .1304792    -0.74   0.458    -.3525788    .1588
> 902
            517  |  -.0753216    .103393    -0.73   0.466    -.2779682    .1273
> 251
            522  |   .0054062   .0803431     0.07   0.946    -.1520634    .1628
> 758
            530  |  -.0358455   .0804582    -0.45   0.656    -.1935406    .1218
> 497
            540  |  -.0020056   .0774308    -0.03   0.979    -.1537672    .1497
> 559
            541  |  -.0019813    .082966    -0.02   0.981    -.1645918    .1606
> 292
            551  |  -.0239603   .0744236    -0.32   0.747    -.1698278    .1219
> 073
            552  |  -.0970389   .0695886    -1.39   0.163    -.2334302    .0393
> 523
            553  |  -.0158354   .0861079    -0.18   0.854    -.1846038    .1529
> 329
            560  |  -.2431235   .1050851    -2.31   0.021    -.4490865   -.0371
> 604
            565  |  -.0850054   .1116471    -0.76   0.446    -.3038296    .1338
> 188
            570  |  -.0415385   .0866461    -0.48   0.632    -.2113617    .1282
> 847
            571  |   .0218195   .1008259     0.22   0.829    -.1757957    .2194
> 347
            572  |  -.0050731    .083078    -0.06   0.951    -.1679031    .1577
> 568
            580  |   .0523219   .0688948     0.76   0.448    -.0827095    .1873
> 532
            581  |   .0062425    .082724     0.08   0.940    -.1558936    .1683
> 786
            600  |   -.129416   .0861586    -1.50   0.133    -.2982837    .0394
> 517
            615  |  -.0754081   .0871797    -0.86   0.387    -.2462771     .095
> 461
            616  |   -.207677   .0923628    -2.25   0.025    -.3887047   -.0266
> 493
            620  |    -.10186   .0793291    -1.28   0.199    -.2573423    .0536
> 222
            625  |  -.0578618   .0554412    -1.04   0.297    -.1665245    .0508
> 009
            630  |   -.076516   .0755416    -1.01   0.311    -.2245749    .0715
> 428
            640  |   .0510569   .0717718     0.71   0.477    -.0896133    .1917
> 271
            645  |   .1814717   .0840352     2.16   0.031     .0167657    .3461
> 777
            651  |   -.201782   .0779015    -2.59   0.010    -.3544661   -.0490
> 978
            652  |  -.0944144   .0690644    -1.37   0.172    -.2297782    .0409
> 494
            660  |  -.0394384   .0812146    -0.49   0.627    -.1986161    .1197
> 393
            663  |  -.0826986   .0821358    -1.01   0.314    -.2436818    .0782
> 845
            670  |   .0162645   .0755118     0.22   0.829     -.131736    .1642
> 649
            679  |   -.074009   .0667605    -1.11   0.268    -.2048571    .0568
> 391
            690  |  -.0777437   .1149275    -0.68   0.499    -.3029975    .1475
> 101
            694  |   .1347922   .0999549     1.35   0.177    -.0611159    .3307
> 003
            698  |    .047782   .0961367     0.50   0.619    -.1406426    .2362
> 065
            700  |  -.0954206   .0790197    -1.21   0.227    -.2502964    .0594
> 552
            701  |   .0481607   .0702745     0.69   0.493    -.0895748    .1858
> 962
            702  |   .1197693   .0639994     1.87   0.061    -.0056672    .2452
> 058
            703  |  -.0424396    .071274    -0.60   0.552    -.1821342    .0972
> 549
            704  |  -.0701393   .0677431    -1.04   0.300    -.2029134    .0626
> 349
            705  |  -.2064187   .0902649    -2.29   0.022    -.3833347   -.0295
> 027
            710  |  -.1096552   .0760921    -1.44   0.150     -.258793    .0394
> 827
            712  |    .159426   .1268384     1.26   0.209    -.0891727    .4080
> 248
            760  |   .0438334   .1469242     0.30   0.765    -.2441328    .3317
> 995
            770  |  -.0359606   .0541275    -0.66   0.506    -.1420486    .0701
> 273
            771  |  -.0253667   .0665404    -0.38   0.703    -.1557836    .1050
> 501
            775  |  -.0279698   .0569372    -0.49   0.623    -.1395646    .0836
> 249
            780  |  -.0815175   .1041869    -0.78   0.434      -.28572    .1226
> 851
            790  |  -.0561718   .0712743    -0.79   0.431    -.1958668    .0835
> 232
            800  |  -.1808605   .0792262    -2.28   0.022    -.3361411     -.02
> 558
            811  |   .0194546   .0753619     0.26   0.796     -.128252    .1671
> 613
            812  |   .1556639   .0766373     2.03   0.042     .0054574    .3058
> 703
            816  |   .1233249   .0741833     1.66   0.096    -.0220716    .2687
> 214
            820  |  -.0398708   .0837858    -0.48   0.634    -.2040879    .1243
> 463
            840  |   .1585681   .0569792     2.78   0.005     .0468909    .2702
> 454
            850  |  -.0424205   .0734626    -0.58   0.564    -.1864046    .1015
> 637
                 |
           _cons |  -.1341706   .1867542    -0.72   0.472    -.5002021    .2318
> 609
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             62.138
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               57.714
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         59.129
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal v2x_corr debt_crisis
                      ungaidealpoint2 1975.year 1976.year 1977.year 1978.year
                      1979.year 1980.year 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year
                      1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year
                      1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year
                      1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year
                      1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year
                      2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year
                      2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year
                      2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode 93.ccode
                      95.ccode 130.ccode 135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccod
> e
                      155.ccode 160.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode 310.ccode
                      339.ccode 346.ccode 355.ccode 360.ccode 365.ccode
                      370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode 404.ccode
                      411.ccode 420.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode
                      435.ccode 436.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode 439.ccode
                      450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode 471.ccode
                      475.ccode 481.ccode 482.ccode 483.ccode 484.ccode
                      490.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode 510.ccode 516.ccode
                      517.ccode 522.ccode 530.ccode 540.ccode 541.ccode
                      551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode 565.ccode
                      570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode 580.ccode 581.ccode
                      600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode 625.ccode
                      630.ccode 640.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode 652.ccode
                      660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode 690.ccode
                      694.ccode 698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode 702.ccode
                      703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode 712.ccode
                      760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode 775.ccode 780.ccode
                      790.ccode 800.ccode 811.ccode 812.ccode 816.ccode
                      820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Col 7 adds military, monarchical, and party-based autocratic varieties *
. ivreg2 theta_mean  l.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liq
> uidity_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal military monarchy
>  party debt_crisis ungaidealpoint2 i.year i.ccode, robust
Warning: time variable year has 36 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2527
                                                      F(155,  2371) =   948.52
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  2768.166867                Centered R2   =   0.9646
Total (uncentered) SS   =  4356.431086                Uncentered R2 =   0.9775
Residual SS             =  97.89422198                Root MSE      =    .1968

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
      theta_mean |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |  -.1219622   .0676864    -1.80   0.072    -.2546252    .0107
> 008
                 |
      theta_mean |
             L1. |   .8440794   .0173262    48.72   0.000     .8101206    .8780
> 381
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |  -.0618749   .0814488    -0.76   0.447    -.2215116    .0977
> 617
     e_migdppcln |   .0072826    .022405     0.33   0.745    -.0366304    .0511
> 955
     v2xcl_acjst |   .3196674   .1124003     2.84   0.004     .0993667     .539
> 968
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0195466   .0108094    -1.81   0.071    -.0407327    .0016
> 395
         actotal |  -.0409119   .0048011    -8.52   0.000    -.0503218    -.031
> 502
        military |  -.1427859   .0274951    -5.19   0.000    -.1966753   -.0888
> 966
        monarchy |  -.3228716   .0723924    -4.46   0.000    -.4647581   -.1809
> 851
           party |  -.1008936   .0268356    -3.76   0.000    -.1534903   -.0482
> 968
     debt_crisis |   .0371068   .0271203     1.37   0.171     -.016048    .0902
> 616
 ungaidealpoint2 |   .0449775   .0178394     2.52   0.012      .010013     .079
> 942
                 |
            year |
           1976  |  -.0881287   .0510429    -1.73   0.084     -.188171    .0119
> 136
           1977  |  -.0772174   .0455685    -1.69   0.090    -.1665301    .0120
> 952
           1978  |  -.0738357   .0521948    -1.41   0.157    -.1761357    .0284
> 643
           1979  |   -.041808   .0432926    -0.97   0.334      -.12666     .043
> 044
           1980  |  -.0009839   .0435747    -0.02   0.982    -.0863887     .084
> 421
           1981  |  -.0386724   .0385315    -1.00   0.316    -.1141927    .0368
> 479
           1982  |  -.0333996    .042262    -0.79   0.429    -.1162316    .0494
> 323
           1983  |  -.0505953   .0455429    -1.11   0.267    -.1398578    .0386
> 671
           1984  |  -.0339682    .041141    -0.83   0.409     -.114603    .0466
> 666
           1985  |   -.015625   .0417999    -0.37   0.709    -.0975513    .0663
> 014
           1986  |   .0220493   .0392532     0.56   0.574    -.0548856    .0989
> 841
           1987  |   .0186585   .0379252     0.49   0.623    -.0556735    .0929
> 904
           1988  |  -.0062552   .0400337    -0.16   0.876    -.0847198    .0722
> 095
           1989  |  -.0102631   .0419126    -0.24   0.807    -.0924102     .071
> 884
           1990  |  -.0948331   .0739837    -1.28   0.200    -.2398385    .0501
> 723
           1991  |  -.0518535   .0494044    -1.05   0.294    -.1486844    .0449
> 773
           1992  |   .0001195   .0483513     0.00   0.998    -.0946474    .0948
> 863
           1993  |  -.0269749   .0516535    -0.52   0.602    -.1282138     .074
> 264
           1994  |  -.0528565   .0476847    -1.11   0.268    -.1463169    .0406
> 038
           1995  |   .0263797   .0459929     0.57   0.566    -.0637648    .1165
> 243
           1996  |   .0329524   .0428894     0.77   0.442    -.0511092     .117
> 014
           1997  |  -.0186782   .0420417    -0.44   0.657    -.1010785    .0637
> 221
           1998  |  -.0104374   .0447639    -0.23   0.816    -.0981731    .0772
> 983
           1999  |   .0173741    .045319     0.38   0.701    -.0714496    .1061
> 977
           2000  |   .0112188   .0511604     0.22   0.826    -.0890537    .1114
> 914
           2001  |   .0340139   .0462206     0.74   0.462    -.0565768    .1246
> 045
           2002  |   .0388005   .0502764     0.77   0.440    -.0597394    .1373
> 404
           2003  |   .0085089   .0489458     0.17   0.862     -.087423    .1044
> 408
           2004  |   .0353288   .0572553     0.62   0.537    -.0768895    .1475
> 471
           2005  |  -.0301522   .0563036    -0.54   0.592    -.1405052    .0802
> 009
           2006  |  -.0169006   .0558582    -0.30   0.762    -.1263806    .0925
> 794
           2007  |  -.0213488   .0567147    -0.38   0.707    -.1325076    .0898
> 099
           2008  |   .0158984   .0562982     0.28   0.778    -.0944441    .1262
> 409
           2009  |   .0116254   .0493558     0.24   0.814    -.0851102    .1083
> 611
           2010  |  -.0125755     .05228    -0.24   0.810    -.1150424    .0898
> 914
           2011  |  -.0752862   .0709985    -1.06   0.289    -.2144407    .0638
> 683
           2012  |  -.0168351   .0568888    -0.30   0.767    -.1283352     .094
> 665
           2013  |    .021914   .0651644     0.34   0.737    -.1058059    .1496
> 338
           2014  |   -.046138   .0724608    -0.64   0.524    -.1881586    .0958
> 827
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.0950564   .0668076    -1.42   0.155    -.2259968    .0358
> 841
             90  |    .128813   .0627832     2.05   0.040     .0057602    .2518
> 659
             91  |    -.08471   .1000444    -0.85   0.397    -.2807935    .1113
> 735
             92  |   -.148378   .0790489    -1.88   0.061     -.303311     .006
> 555
             93  |  -.0709215   .0609882    -1.16   0.245    -.1904562    .0486
> 132
             95  |  -.0750081   .0669105    -1.12   0.262    -.2061503    .0561
> 342
            130  |   -.011714   .0750067    -0.16   0.876    -.1587245    .1352
> 965
            135  |  -.0142414   .0761277    -0.19   0.852    -.1634489    .1349
> 662
            140  |   -.022145   .0568034    -0.39   0.697    -.1334777    .0891
> 876
            145  |  -.0616641   .0575225    -1.07   0.284    -.1744061     .051
> 078
            150  |  -.0605288   .0628206    -0.96   0.335     -.183655    .0625
> 975
            155  |     .02582   .0644665     0.40   0.689    -.1005321     .152
> 172
            160  |  -.1844523   .2746513    -0.67   0.502     -.722759    .3538
> 543
            165  |   .0267221   .0648353     0.41   0.680    -.1003528    .1537
> 969
            290  |   .0949909   .0978635     0.97   0.332     -.096818    .2867
> 997
            310  |   .3020159   .1011783     2.98   0.003       .10371    .5003
> 218
            339  |    .063322   .0641392     0.99   0.324    -.0623885    .1890
> 325
            346  |   .0646751   .2129145     0.30   0.761    -.3526296    .4819
> 798
            355  |   .1684683   .1428396     1.18   0.238    -.1114922    .4484
> 289
            360  |   .0313532    .061582     0.51   0.611    -.0893453    .1520
> 517
            365  |    -.22629   .0835649    -2.71   0.007    -.3900743   -.0625
> 058
            370  |  -.2196748    .098585    -2.23   0.026    -.4128979   -.0264
> 517
            372  |    -.21443   .0932986    -2.30   0.022    -.3972918   -.0315
> 681
            373  |   .0588745   .0689273     0.85   0.393    -.0762205    .1939
> 696
            402  |   .1064893   .0945855     1.13   0.260    -.0788949    .2918
> 736
            404  |   .0977984   .0722988     1.35   0.176    -.0439047    .2395
> 014
            411  |     .13014   .0893071     1.46   0.145    -.0448988    .3051
> 787
            420  |   .0813463   .0818147     0.99   0.320    -.0790076    .2417
> 002
            432  |  -.0607668   .0969176    -0.63   0.531    -.2507217    .1291
> 881
            433  |  -.0536378   .0920462    -0.58   0.560     -.234045    .1267
> 695
            434  |    .084193   .1354796     0.62   0.534     -.181342    .3497
> 281
            435  |   .0844429   .0853598     0.99   0.323    -.0828593    .2517
> 451
            436  |   .0230099   .0883357     0.26   0.794    -.1501249    .1961
> 447
            437  |  -.0133839   .0665616    -0.20   0.841    -.1438423    .1170
> 745
            438  |   .1161252   .0759783     1.53   0.126    -.0327896      .26
> 504
            439  |   .0231703   .0875136     0.26   0.791    -.1483532    .1946
> 937
            450  |   .0532555   .1032873     0.52   0.606    -.1491839    .2556
> 949
            451  |   .0773618   .0847632     0.91   0.361    -.0887711    .2434
> 947
            452  |   .1781994   .0889283     2.00   0.045     .0039031    .3524
> 957
            461  |    .006353   .0686708     0.09   0.926    -.1282392    .1409
> 452
            471  |  -.1536342   .0781422    -1.97   0.049    -.3067901   -.0004
> 783
            475  |  -.1597126   .0899319    -1.78   0.076    -.3359759    .0165
> 507
            481  |    .031251   .0772648     0.40   0.686    -.1201852    .1826
> 873
            482  |  -.0127612   .0743587    -0.17   0.864    -.1585016    .1329
> 792
            483  |   .0141601   .0672561     0.21   0.833    -.1176595    .1459
> 797
            484  |   .1533075   .0747842     2.05   0.040     .0067332    .2998
> 818
            490  |  -.0562042   .0670167    -0.84   0.402    -.1875546    .0751
> 461
            500  |  -.1698972   .0956479    -1.78   0.076    -.3573636    .0175
> 693
            501  |   .0301374    .054919     0.55   0.583    -.0775019    .1377
> 767
            510  |    .021238   .0807718     0.26   0.793    -.1370718    .1795
> 478
            516  |  -.1470676   .1011491    -1.45   0.146    -.3453163    .0511
> 811
            517  |  -.0326387   .1032292    -0.32   0.752    -.2349642    .1696
> 868
            522  |  -.0300689   .0841824    -0.36   0.721    -.1950634    .1349
> 256
            530  |   .0011991   .0802805     0.01   0.988    -.1561479    .1585
> 461
            540  |   .0001662   .0797203     0.00   0.998    -.1560828    .1564
> 151
            541  |   .0465966   .0826265     0.56   0.573    -.1153484    .2085
> 415
            551  |   .0004163   .0727153     0.01   0.995    -.1421031    .1429
> 357
            552  |  -.0588097   .0686556    -0.86   0.392    -.1933722    .0757
> 529
            553  |  -.0072951   .0807143    -0.09   0.928    -.1654923     .150
> 902
            560  |  -.3299835   .1189328    -2.77   0.006    -.5630875   -.0968
> 794
            565  |  -.0614725    .113024    -0.54   0.587    -.2829956    .1600
> 505
            570  |  -.0495354   .0890642    -0.56   0.578     -.224098    .1250
> 273
            571  |   .0499404   .1008339     0.50   0.620    -.1476905    .2475
> 713
            572  |   .2311257   .0994857     2.32   0.020     .0361374     .426
> 114
            580  |   .0857594   .0716565     1.20   0.231    -.0546847    .2262
> 035
            581  |  -.0056217   .0851055    -0.07   0.947    -.1724255    .1611
> 821
            600  |   .1407438   .0932148     1.51   0.131    -.0419538    .3234
> 414
            615  |   -.054096   .0883827    -0.61   0.540    -.2273229    .1191
> 309
            616  |  -.1727284   .0921566    -1.87   0.061     -.353352    .0078
> 952
            620  |  -.0584003   .0823206    -0.71   0.478    -.2197457    .1029
> 452
            625  |  -.0249518   .0537348    -0.46   0.642    -.1302701    .0803
> 665
            630  |  -.0515086   .0787008    -0.65   0.513    -.2057593    .1027
> 421
            640  |   .0582193   .0639457     0.91   0.363     -.067112    .1835
> 506
            645  |   .1380538   .0869132     1.59   0.112    -.0322928    .3084
> 005
            651  |  -.2495678   .0842663    -2.96   0.003    -.4147266    -.084
> 409
            652  |  -.0796476      .0737    -1.08   0.280    -.2240969    .0648
> 018
            660  |  -.1175518   .0907732    -1.30   0.195    -.2954639    .0603
> 604
            663  |   .1570689   .0974058     1.61   0.107    -.0338429    .3479
> 807
            670  |    .218546   .0986827     2.21   0.027     .0251314    .4119
> 606
            679  |   -.008987   .0639123    -0.14   0.888    -.1342527    .1162
> 787
            690  |   .1492407    .123427     1.21   0.227    -.0926718    .3911
> 533
            694  |   .0480984    .111171     0.43   0.665    -.1697928    .2659
> 896
            698  |   .2899249   .1079537     2.69   0.007     .0783394    .5015
> 103
            700  |  -.1480031   .0838975    -1.76   0.078    -.3124392     .016
> 433
            701  |   .0561657   .0731214     0.77   0.442    -.0871496    .1994
> 809
            702  |   .0335336   .0669114     0.50   0.616    -.0976103    .1646
> 775
            703  |  -.0847667   .0722574    -1.17   0.241    -.2263886    .0568
> 551
            704  |  -.1610986   .0731392    -2.20   0.028    -.3044488   -.0177
> 485
            705  |  -.2669426   .0943758    -2.83   0.005    -.4519158   -.0819
> 695
            710  |  -.1068729   .0759176    -1.41   0.159    -.2556688    .0419
> 229
            712  |   .2305081   .1236176     1.86   0.062     -.011778    .4727
> 942
            760  |   .0365233   .1460973     0.25   0.803    -.2498222    .3228
> 689
            770  |   .0305163   .0504786     0.60   0.545    -.0684199    .1294
> 525
            771  |  -.0919179   .0681651    -1.35   0.178    -.2255189    .0416
> 832
            775  |   .0205131   .0552016     0.37   0.710    -.0876802    .1287
> 063
            780  |  -.0782593   .1002903    -0.78   0.435    -.2748247    .1183
> 061
            790  |     .18096   .1003545     1.80   0.071    -.0157312    .3776
> 512
            800  |  -.1916719   .0918265    -2.09   0.037    -.3716486   -.0116
> 952
            811  |   .0516071    .075428     0.68   0.494    -.0962291    .1994
> 434
            812  |   .2037337   .0794522     2.56   0.010     .0480103    .3594
> 571
            816  |   .1481546   .0746405     1.98   0.047     .0018619    .2944
> 472
            820  |  -.0156215   .0848827    -0.18   0.854    -.1819886    .1507
> 455
            840  |    .077556   .0605879     1.28   0.201     -.041194    .1963
> 061
            850  |   .0510309    .066654     0.77   0.444    -.0796085    .1816
> 704
                 |
           _cons |  -.0437647   .1845559    -0.24   0.813    -.4054876    .3179
> 583
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             68.898
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               64.579
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         67.528
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.theta_mean imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal military monarchy party
                      debt_crisis ungaidealpoint2 1976.year 1977.year 1978.year
                      1979.year 1980.year 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year
                      1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year
                      1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year
                      1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year
                      1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year
                      2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year
                      2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year
                      2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode 93.ccode
                      95.ccode 130.ccode 135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccod
> e
                      155.ccode 160.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode 310.ccode
                      339.ccode 346.ccode 355.ccode 360.ccode 365.ccode
                      370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode 404.ccode
                      411.ccode 420.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode
                      435.ccode 436.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode 439.ccode
                      450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode 471.ccode
                      475.ccode 481.ccode 482.ccode 483.ccode 484.ccode
                      490.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode 510.ccode 516.ccode
                      517.ccode 522.ccode 530.ccode 540.ccode 541.ccode
                      551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode 565.ccode
                      570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode 580.ccode 581.ccode
                      600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode 625.ccode
                      630.ccode 640.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode 652.ccode
                      660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode 690.ccode
                      694.ccode 698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode 702.ccode
                      703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode 712.ccode
                      760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode 775.ccode 780.ccode
                      790.ccode 800.ccode 811.ccode 812.ccode 816.ccode
                      820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *** Table A12 (2SLS results for autocratic sample with V-Dem physical violenc
> e indicator as outcome variable ***
. ivreg2 v2x_clphy l.v2x_clphy imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liquid
> ity_1) e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal i.year i.ccode, robus
> t 
Warning: time variable year has 24 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2859
                                                      F(152,  2706) = 61002.18
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  171.1565438                Centered R2   =   0.9605
Total (uncentered) SS   =  564.9029594                Uncentered R2 =   0.9880
Residual SS             =  6.760140914                Root MSE      =   .04863

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
       v2x_clphy |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |  -.0328213   .0165251    -1.99   0.047    -.0652099   -.0004
> 327
                 |
       v2x_clphy |
             L1. |   .8134475   .0218755    37.19   0.000     .7705723    .8563
> 228
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0039918     .01945     0.21   0.837    -.0341295    .0421
> 131
     e_migdppcln |  -.0077734   .0034662    -2.24   0.025     -.014567   -.0009
> 798
     v2xcl_acjst |   .2340307   .0363172     6.44   0.000     .1628502    .3052
> 112
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0106538   .0026698    -3.99   0.000    -.0158865   -.0054
> 211
         actotal |  -.0021805   .0007461    -2.92   0.003    -.0036429   -.0007
> 181
                 |
            year |
           1975  |  -.0059694   .0068625    -0.87   0.384    -.0194196    .0074
> 808
           1976  |   .0062006   .0056149     1.10   0.269    -.0048045    .0172
> 057
           1977  |   .0103423    .006087     1.70   0.089     -.001588    .0222
> 726
           1978  |    .009955   .0056688     1.76   0.079    -.0011556    .0210
> 656
           1979  |   .0147736   .0067584     2.19   0.029     .0015273    .0280
> 199
           1980  |   .0264381   .0094624     2.79   0.005     .0078922     .044
> 984
           1981  |   .0117412   .0069243     1.70   0.090    -.0018301    .0253
> 125
           1982  |   .0069038    .007282     0.95   0.343    -.0073687    .0211
> 763
           1983  |   .0130589   .0065121     2.01   0.045     .0002954    .0258
> 224
           1984  |   .0059483    .007516     0.79   0.429    -.0087827    .0206
> 794
           1985  |   .0129774   .0056855     2.28   0.022     .0018341    .0241
> 208
           1986  |   .0155117   .0062431     2.48   0.013     .0032753     .027
> 748
           1987  |   .0226786   .0077241     2.94   0.003     .0075397    .0378
> 176
           1988  |   .0135204   .0077758     1.74   0.082      -.00172    .0287
> 607
           1989  |   .0162806   .0080284     2.03   0.043     .0005453    .0320
> 159
           1990  |   .0441856   .0120441     3.67   0.000     .0205796    .0677
> 916
           1991  |   .0346249   .0083174     4.16   0.000      .018323    .0509
> 267
           1992  |   .0225518   .0078272     2.88   0.004     .0072108    .0378
> 929
           1993  |   .0099035   .0067067     1.48   0.140    -.0032414    .0230
> 484
           1994  |   .0018131    .010315     0.18   0.860    -.0184039    .0220
> 301
           1995  |   .0227887   .0099318     2.29   0.022     .0033228    .0422
> 546
           1996  |   .0157797    .007495     2.11   0.035     .0010898    .0304
> 695
           1997  |   .0059693   .0085813     0.70   0.487    -.0108497    .0227
> 882
           1998  |   .0150735   .0063891     2.36   0.018     .0025512    .0275
> 959
           1999  |   .0118574   .0079915     1.48   0.138    -.0038057    .0275
> 206
           2000  |   .0235631   .0088975     2.65   0.008     .0061243     .041
> 002
           2001  |   .0165285   .0075976     2.18   0.030     .0016374    .0314
> 195
           2002  |   .0164457   .0091689     1.79   0.073    -.0015251    .0344
> 164
           2003  |   .0202828   .0085559     2.37   0.018     .0035136     .037
> 052
           2004  |    .022195   .0110343     2.01   0.044     .0005682    .0438
> 218
           2005  |   .0084732   .0067913     1.25   0.212    -.0048374    .0217
> 839
           2006  |   .0155727   .0082098     1.90   0.058    -.0005183    .0316
> 636
           2007  |   .0160931   .0068905     2.34   0.020      .002588    .0295
> 982
           2008  |   .0129024   .0060558     2.13   0.033     .0010332    .0247
> 716
           2009  |   .0181719   .0069179     2.63   0.009     .0046131    .0317
> 307
           2010  |   .0260232    .009109     2.86   0.004       .00817    .0438
> 765
           2011  |   .0188502   .0096057     1.96   0.050     .0000233     .037
> 677
           2012  |   .0230926   .0099105     2.33   0.020     .0036684    .0425
> 167
           2013  |   .0103765   .0100595     1.03   0.302    -.0093398    .0300
> 929
           2014  |   .0128382   .0073522     1.75   0.081    -.0015718    .0272
> 481
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.0351599   .0178172    -1.97   0.048    -.0700811   -.0002
> 388
             90  |  -.0176548      .0157    -1.12   0.261    -.0484262    .0131
> 166
             91  |   -.049003   .0242519    -2.02   0.043    -.0965359     -.00
> 147
             92  |  -.0275166   .0153935    -1.79   0.074    -.0576872    .0026
> 541
             93  |   .0066772   .0429596     0.16   0.876    -.0775221    .0908
> 764
             95  |  -.0706565    .016825    -4.20   0.000    -.1036329   -.0376
> 801
            130  |  -.0036596   .0176716    -0.21   0.836    -.0382952     .030
> 976
            135  |  -.0767901   .0230351    -3.33   0.001    -.1219381   -.0316
> 421
            140  |  -.0538344   .0180925    -2.98   0.003     -.089295   -.0183
> 739
            145  |  -.0730472   .0174725    -4.18   0.000    -.1072928   -.0388
> 017
            150  |  -.0539618   .0161339    -3.34   0.001    -.0855837   -.0223
> 398
            155  |  -.0428008   .0227609    -1.88   0.060    -.0874113    .0018
> 097
            160  |  -.0439137   .0231661    -1.90   0.058    -.0893185     .001
> 491
            165  |  -.0477846   .0184501    -2.59   0.010    -.0839462    -.011
> 623
            290  |   .0664026   .0400147     1.66   0.097    -.0120247    .1448
> 299
            310  |   .0297782   .0227131     1.31   0.190    -.0147386    .0742
> 951
            339  |  -.0069244   .0251793    -0.28   0.783    -.0562749    .0424
> 262
            346  |   .0376258    .026025     1.45   0.148    -.0133822    .0886
> 338
            355  |   .2616231   .0373095     7.01   0.000     .1884978    .3347
> 483
            360  |   .0160069   .0157823     1.01   0.310    -.0149258    .0469
> 397
            365  |  -.0627416   .0168171    -3.73   0.000    -.0957024   -.0297
> 807
            370  |  -.1188955   .0391311    -3.04   0.002     -.195591   -.0422
> 001
            372  |  -.1190422   .0266134    -4.47   0.000    -.1712034    -.066
> 881
            373  |  -.0509101   .0248735    -2.05   0.041    -.0996612    -.002
> 159
            402  |  -.0645688   .0213035    -3.03   0.002    -.1063228   -.0228
> 148
            404  |  -.0533653   .0181513    -2.94   0.003    -.0889412   -.0177
> 895
            411  |  -.0523319   .0170049    -3.08   0.002    -.0856608   -.0190
> 029
            420  |  -.1326892   .0260035    -5.10   0.000    -.1836551   -.0817
> 233
            432  |   -.137435   .0277448    -4.95   0.000    -.1918139   -.0830
> 562
            433  |  -.0965971   .0226108    -4.27   0.000    -.1409135   -.0522
> 807
            434  |  -.0799591   .0337424    -2.37   0.018     -.146093   -.0138
> 252
            435  |  -.1010336    .023477    -4.30   0.000    -.1470477   -.0550
> 194
            436  |  -.0964359   .0235254    -4.10   0.000    -.1425448    -.050
> 327
            437  |  -.0672247   .0198093    -3.39   0.001    -.1060501   -.0283
> 992
            438  |  -.0464118   .0188538    -2.46   0.014    -.0833646    -.009
> 459
            439  |  -.1229808   .0247614    -4.97   0.000    -.1715124   -.0744
> 493
            450  |  -.0722653   .0222528    -3.25   0.001      -.11588   -.0286
> 507
            451  |  -.0628706   .0169011    -3.72   0.000    -.0959961    -.029
> 745
            452  |  -.0045102   .0265075    -0.17   0.865    -.0564639    .0474
> 435
            461  |  -.1336511   .0217695    -6.14   0.000    -.1763185   -.0909
> 837
            471  |  -.0832444   .0205154    -4.06   0.000     -.123454   -.0430
> 349
            475  |  -.1771469   .0294755    -6.01   0.000    -.2349177    -.119
> 376
            481  |  -.0437634   .0180812    -2.42   0.016     -.079202   -.0083
> 249
            482  |  -.0512518   .0221111    -2.32   0.020    -.0945887   -.0079
> 149
            483  |  -.0789921   .0184631    -4.28   0.000     -.115179   -.0428
> 051
            484  |  -.0696203    .017986    -3.87   0.000    -.1048721   -.0343
> 684
            490  |  -.0703506   .0166785    -4.22   0.000    -.1030399   -.0376
> 613
            500  |  -.1574824   .0273511    -5.76   0.000    -.2110897   -.1038
> 751
            501  |  -.0722102   .0170054    -4.25   0.000    -.1055402   -.0388
> 802
            510  |   -.057752   .0178859    -3.23   0.001    -.0928077   -.0226
> 963
            516  |   -.125621      .0234    -5.37   0.000    -.1714842   -.0797
> 579
            517  |  -.1333515   .0269275    -4.95   0.000    -.1861284   -.0805
> 747
            522  |  -.0709774   .0209199    -3.39   0.001    -.1119796   -.0299
> 752
            530  |  -.0896395   .0202052    -4.44   0.000    -.1292409   -.0500
> 381
            540  |  -.0671755    .020469    -3.28   0.001     -.107294   -.0270
> 571
            541  |  -.0913644   .0213592    -4.28   0.000    -.1332276   -.0495
> 012
            551  |  -.0846677   .0197033    -4.30   0.000    -.1232855     -.04
> 605
            552  |  -.1181386   .0209176    -5.65   0.000    -.1591364   -.0771
> 408
            553  |  -.1424608   .0235056    -6.06   0.000    -.1885309   -.0963
> 907
            560  |  -.0796886    .021953    -3.63   0.000    -.1227158   -.0366
> 615
            565  |  -.0881205   .0253955    -3.47   0.001    -.1378948   -.0383
> 462
            570  |  -.1046286   .0235689    -4.44   0.000    -.1508229   -.0584
> 343
            571  |  -.0939315   .0238823    -3.93   0.000    -.1407399    -.047
> 123
            572  |  -.0675474   .0206548    -3.27   0.001    -.1080301   -.0270
> 648
            580  |  -.0006969   .0174086    -0.04   0.968    -.0348172    .0334
> 234
            581  |  -.0876899   .0194143    -4.52   0.000    -.1257412   -.0496
> 386
            600  |  -.1293836   .0256349    -5.05   0.000     -.179627   -.0791
> 401
            615  |  -.0569073   .0231067    -2.46   0.014    -.1021956    -.011
> 619
            616  |  -.1689625   .0290013    -5.83   0.000    -.2258039    -.112
> 121
            620  |  -.0579642   .0192502    -3.01   0.003    -.0956939   -.0202
> 344
            625  |  -.0415844   .0162791    -2.55   0.011    -.0734908    -.009
> 678
            630  |  -.0602517   .0215932    -2.79   0.005    -.1025736   -.0179
> 298
            640  |   -.033962   .0182621    -1.86   0.063    -.0697551     .001
> 831
            645  |  -.0447345   .0220261    -2.03   0.042    -.0879048   -.0015
> 641
            651  |  -.1564337   .0250117    -6.25   0.000    -.2054557   -.1074
> 117
            652  |  -.0483561   .0169875    -2.85   0.004    -.0816509   -.0150
> 612
            660  |  -.0785814   .0211079    -3.72   0.000    -.1199523   -.0372
> 106
            663  |  -.0738795   .0200083    -3.69   0.000     -.113095    -.034
> 664
            670  |  -.0232035   .0182795    -1.27   0.204    -.0590307    .0126
> 237
            679  |  -.0310883   .0249258    -1.25   0.212    -.0799419    .0177
> 653
            690  |  -.0830991   .0248338    -3.35   0.001    -.1317726   -.0344
> 257
            694  |  -.0331898   .0210582    -1.58   0.115    -.0744632    .0080
> 837
            698  |  -.0846757     .02299    -3.68   0.000    -.1297353    -.039
> 616
            700  |  -.0584111   .0189899    -3.08   0.002    -.0956306   -.0211
> 916
            701  |  -.0205247   .0188455    -1.09   0.276    -.0574611    .0164
> 117
            702  |  -.0362547   .0168395    -2.15   0.031    -.0692596   -.0032
> 499
            703  |  -.0832096   .0204417    -4.07   0.000    -.1232747   -.0431
> 446
            704  |  -.0557043   .0183248    -3.04   0.002    -.0916203   -.0197
> 883
            705  |  -.1288652    .024679    -5.22   0.000    -.1772351   -.0804
> 953
            710  |  -.0530271   .0195125    -2.72   0.007    -.0912709   -.0147
> 832
            712  |  -.0083171   .0335012    -0.25   0.804    -.0739783    .0573
> 441
            732  |   -.079832   .0217797    -3.67   0.000    -.1225195   -.0371
> 445
            760  |  -.2114355   .0371705    -5.69   0.000    -.2842883   -.1385
> 827
            770  |  -.0830191   .0172594    -4.81   0.000    -.1168469   -.0491
> 914
            771  |  -.0828033   .0188502    -4.39   0.000     -.119749   -.0458
> 577
            775  |  -.0364403   .0149398    -2.44   0.015    -.0657217   -.0071
> 588
            780  |  -.0815828   .0237991    -3.43   0.001    -.1282282   -.0349
> 373
            790  |  -.0419297   .0180494    -2.32   0.020    -.0773059   -.0065
> 534
            800  |   -.101686   .0236568    -4.30   0.000    -.1480524   -.0553
> 195
            811  |  -.0645155   .0191893    -3.36   0.001     -.102126   -.0269
> 051
            812  |  -.0702583   .0169973    -4.13   0.000    -.1035724   -.0369
> 443
            816  |  -.0029658   .0162071    -0.18   0.855    -.0347311    .0287
> 995
            820  |  -.0387615   .0195796    -1.98   0.048    -.0771368   -.0003
> 862
            840  |  -.0286946   .0152428    -1.88   0.060    -.0585699    .0011
> 807
            850  |   -.099958   .0203409    -4.91   0.000    -.1398254   -.0600
> 906
                 |
           _cons |   .1126847    .030557     3.69   0.000      .052794    .1725
> 753
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             69.042
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               59.915
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         64.868
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.v2x_clphy imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal 1975.year 1976.year 1977.year
                      1978.year 1979.year 1980.year 1981.year 1982.year
                      1983.year 1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year
                      1988.year 1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year
                      1993.year 1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year
                      1998.year 1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year
                      2003.year 2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year
                      2008.year 2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year
                      2013.year 2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode
                      93.ccode 95.ccode 130.ccode 135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode
                      150.ccode 155.ccode 160.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode
                      310.ccode 339.ccode 346.ccode 355.ccode 360.ccode
                      365.ccode 370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode
                      404.ccode 411.ccode 420.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode
                      434.ccode 435.ccode 436.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode
                      439.ccode 450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode
                      471.ccode 475.ccode 481.ccode 482.ccode 483.ccode
                      484.ccode 490.ccode 500.ccode 501.ccode 510.ccode
                      516.ccode 517.ccode 522.ccode 530.ccode 540.ccode
                      541.ccode 551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode
                      565.ccode 570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode 580.ccode
                      581.ccode 600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode
                      625.ccode 630.ccode 640.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode
                      652.ccode 660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode
                      690.ccode 694.ccode 698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode
                      702.ccode 703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode
                      712.ccode 732.ccode 760.ccode 770.ccode 771.ccode
                      775.ccode 780.ccode 790.ccode 800.ccode 811.ccode
                      812.ccode 816.ccode 820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ivreg2 v2x_clphy l.v2x_clphy imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liquid
> ity_1) e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal debt_crisis ungaideal
> point2 i.year i.ccode, robust 
Warning: time variable year has 37 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2681
                                                      F(153,  2527) = 34023.30
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =    160.64611                Centered R2   =   0.9618
Total (uncentered) SS   =  529.5369862                Uncentered R2 =   0.9884
Residual SS             =   6.13335264                Root MSE      =   .04783

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
       v2x_clphy |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |  -.0305245   .0169152    -1.80   0.071    -.0636776    .0026
> 287
                 |
       v2x_clphy |
             L1. |   .8158149   .0232951    35.02   0.000     .7701572    .8614
> 725
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |   .0014379   .0198709     0.07   0.942    -.0375084    .0403
> 842
     e_migdppcln |  -.0067973    .003795    -1.79   0.073    -.0142354    .0006
> 408
     v2xcl_acjst |   .2241498   .0397635     5.64   0.000     .1462148    .3020
> 848
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0122659   .0030015    -4.09   0.000    -.0181487    -.006
> 383
         actotal |  -.0022398   .0008314    -2.69   0.007    -.0038692   -.0006
> 104
     debt_crisis |   .0174459   .0136642     1.28   0.202    -.0093355    .0442
> 273
 ungaidealpoint2 |   .0022636   .0039232     0.58   0.564    -.0054257    .0099
> 529
                 |
            year |
           1975  |  -.0062831   .0069405    -0.91   0.365    -.0198862      .00
> 732
           1976  |   .0056083   .0056146     1.00   0.318    -.0053961    .0166
> 127
           1977  |   .0091052   .0060676     1.50   0.133     -.002787    .0209
> 974
           1978  |   .0101949   .0056954     1.79   0.073    -.0009679    .0213
> 577
           1979  |   .0149177   .0069748     2.14   0.032     .0012473    .0285
> 881
           1980  |   .0259318   .0095924     2.70   0.007      .007131    .0447
> 327
           1981  |   .0117329   .0072655     1.61   0.106    -.0025073    .0259
> 731
           1982  |   .0062358   .0075826     0.82   0.411    -.0086259    .0210
> 975
           1983  |   .0111808   .0069986     1.60   0.110    -.0025362    .0248
> 977
           1984  |   .0056937   .0079677     0.71   0.475    -.0099227    .0213
> 102
           1985  |   .0131494   .0061627     2.13   0.033     .0010708    .0252
> 281
           1986  |   .0151019   .0067852     2.23   0.026     .0018032    .0284
> 006
           1987  |   .0214229   .0080772     2.65   0.008      .005592    .0372
> 538
           1988  |   .0137777   .0085161     1.62   0.106    -.0029136    .0304
> 691
           1989  |   .0161526   .0089853     1.80   0.072    -.0014584    .0337
> 635
           1990  |   .0421071   .0126073     3.34   0.001     .0173973    .0668
> 168
           1991  |   .0361078   .0095739     3.77   0.000     .0173433    .0548
> 723
           1992  |   .0247588   .0088765     2.79   0.005     .0073611    .0421
> 564
           1993  |    .009935   .0077137     1.29   0.198    -.0051835    .0250
> 535
           1994  |   .0018618    .011554     0.16   0.872    -.0207836    .0245
> 072
           1995  |   .0241539   .0109491     2.21   0.027      .002694    .0456
> 138
           1996  |   .0169253   .0089189     1.90   0.058    -.0005554     .034
> 406
           1997  |   .0087235   .0100642     0.87   0.386     -.011002    .0284
> 489
           1998  |   .0155562   .0079027     1.97   0.049     .0000671    .0310
> 452
           1999  |   .0159415   .0097009     1.64   0.100    -.0030719     .034
> 955
           2000  |   .0261849   .0099416     2.63   0.008     .0066997    .0456
> 701
           2001  |    .020022   .0092637     2.16   0.031     .0018654    .0381
> 785
           2002  |   .0178185    .011028     1.62   0.106     -.003796    .0394
> 329
           2003  |   .0154064   .0077545     1.99   0.047     .0002078     .030
> 605
           2004  |   .0234053   .0123969     1.89   0.059    -.0008923    .0477
> 028
           2005  |    .009779   .0078134     1.25   0.211    -.0055349     .025
> 093
           2006  |   .0167633   .0089839     1.87   0.062    -.0008448    .0343
> 715
           2007  |   .0172064   .0078838     2.18   0.029     .0017544    .0326
> 584
           2008  |    .014156   .0072563     1.95   0.051    -.0000661    .0283
> 781
           2009  |   .0189071   .0083618     2.26   0.024     .0025182     .035
> 296
           2010  |   .0262713   .0102063     2.57   0.010     .0062673    .0462
> 753
           2011  |   .0195404   .0102594     1.90   0.057    -.0005677    .0396
> 485
           2012  |   .0244621    .010563     2.32   0.021      .003759    .0451
> 651
           2013  |   .0358037   .0085404     4.19   0.000     .0190648    .0525
> 425
           2014  |  -.0039603   .0110544    -0.36   0.720    -.0256265    .0177
> 058
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.0345945   .0187857    -1.84   0.066    -.0714137    .0022
> 248
             90  |  -.0150559   .0162893    -0.92   0.355    -.0469824    .0168
> 706
             91  |  -.0484393   .0246258    -1.97   0.049    -.0967049   -.0001
> 737
             92  |  -.0244057   .0156858    -1.56   0.120    -.0551493    .0063
> 379
             93  |   .0126506     .04145     0.31   0.760    -.0685899    .0938
> 911
             95  |  -.0703072   .0174214    -4.04   0.000    -.1044525    -.036
> 162
            130  |  -.0028803   .0178062    -0.16   0.871    -.0377799    .0320
> 193
            135  |  -.0779624   .0236081    -3.30   0.001    -.1242333   -.0316
> 914
            140  |  -.0504652   .0183407    -2.75   0.006    -.0864122   -.0145
> 181
            145  |  -.0697288   .0177126    -3.94   0.000    -.1044448   -.0350
> 128
            150  |  -.0536776   .0171555    -3.13   0.002    -.0873017   -.0200
> 536
            155  |  -.0423287   .0229072    -1.85   0.065     -.087226    .0025
> 686
            160  |  -.0395504    .023453    -1.69   0.092    -.0855176    .0064
> 167
            165  |  -.0480456   .0189451    -2.54   0.011    -.0851773   -.0109
> 139
            290  |   .0714914   .0404466     1.77   0.077    -.0077825    .1507
> 654
            310  |    .039991   .0247616     1.62   0.106    -.0085409    .0885
> 229
            339  |  -.0001376   .0257477    -0.01   0.996    -.0506021    .0503
> 269
            346  |    .044774    .031287     1.43   0.152    -.0165473    .1060
> 954
            355  |   .2474155   .0447821     5.52   0.000     .1596443    .3351
> 868
            360  |   .0227481   .0162055     1.40   0.160     -.009014    .0545
> 102
            365  |  -.0586227   .0177428    -3.30   0.001    -.0933979   -.0238
> 475
            370  |  -.1136582    .041007    -2.77   0.006    -.1940304   -.0332
> 861
            372  |   -.118587     .02916    -4.07   0.000    -.1757395   -.0614
> 345
            373  |   -.049362   .0246807    -2.00   0.045    -.0977354   -.0009
> 886
            402  |  -.0565795   .0237679    -2.38   0.017    -.1031637   -.0099
> 952
            404  |  -.0509356   .0190565    -2.67   0.008    -.0882858   -.0135
> 855
            411  |  -.0506814   .0176559    -2.87   0.004    -.0852864   -.0160
> 765
            420  |  -.1263156    .028104    -4.49   0.000    -.1813984   -.0712
> 329
            432  |  -.1311903   .0301094    -4.36   0.000    -.1902036   -.0721
> 769
            433  |  -.0897213   .0248298    -3.61   0.000    -.1383869   -.0410
> 557
            434  |  -.0709536   .0333886    -2.13   0.034     -.136394   -.0055
> 131
            435  |  -.0879375   .0245802    -3.58   0.000    -.1361138   -.0397
> 612
            436  |  -.0866951   .0256872    -3.38   0.001    -.1370411   -.0363
> 492
            437  |  -.0751814   .0201536    -3.73   0.000    -.1146817    -.035
> 681
            438  |  -.0460993   .0197362    -2.34   0.020    -.0847815   -.0074
> 172
            439  |  -.1191497   .0273188    -4.36   0.000    -.1726936   -.0656
> 059
            450  |  -.0693073   .0277101    -2.50   0.012     -.123618   -.0149
> 966
            451  |  -.0623404    .017479    -3.57   0.000    -.0965985   -.0280
> 823
            452  |  -.0033787   .0270719    -0.12   0.901    -.0564386    .0496
> 812
            461  |  -.1302678   .0235064    -5.54   0.000    -.1763395    -.084
> 196
            471  |  -.0818331    .022547    -3.63   0.000    -.1260245   -.0376
> 417
            475  |  -.1726626   .0320126    -5.39   0.000    -.2354062    -.109
> 919
            481  |  -.0424004    .019551    -2.17   0.030    -.0807197   -.0040
> 812
            482  |  -.0470405   .0228034    -2.06   0.039    -.0917345   -.0023
> 466
            483  |  -.0759712   .0194155    -3.91   0.000    -.1140248   -.0379
> 175
            484  |  -.0656815   .0191602    -3.43   0.001    -.1032348   -.0281
> 282
            490  |  -.0668889   .0174729    -3.83   0.000    -.1011351   -.0326
> 427
            500  |  -.1471225   .0292019    -5.04   0.000    -.2043572   -.0898
> 879
            501  |   -.067929   .0173741    -3.91   0.000    -.1019817   -.0338
> 763
            510  |  -.0509318    .019721    -2.58   0.010    -.0895842   -.0122
> 794
            516  |  -.1181702   .0250582    -4.72   0.000    -.1672834    -.069
> 057
            517  |  -.1264017   .0294493    -4.29   0.000    -.1841213   -.0686
> 822
            522  |  -.0673647   .0227312    -2.96   0.003    -.1119171   -.0228
> 124
            530  |  -.0798546   .0214749    -3.72   0.000    -.1219446   -.0377
> 646
            540  |  -.0607245    .022413    -2.71   0.007    -.1046532   -.0167
> 958
            541  |   -.079402   .0228449    -3.48   0.001    -.1241772   -.0346
> 267
            551  |  -.0734552   .0203041    -3.62   0.000    -.1132505   -.0336
> 598
            552  |  -.1093059   .0217747    -5.02   0.000    -.1519835   -.0666
> 282
            553  |  -.1401833   .0250305    -5.60   0.000    -.1892421   -.0911
> 244
            560  |  -.0795655   .0353681    -2.25   0.024    -.1488856   -.0102
> 453
            565  |  -.0811961   .0286916    -2.83   0.005    -.1374306   -.0249
> 616
            570  |  -.1004767   .0261611    -3.84   0.000    -.1517516   -.0492
> 018
            571  |  -.0891846   .0272039    -3.28   0.001    -.1425033    -.035
> 866
            572  |  -.0608065   .0224656    -2.71   0.007    -.1048383   -.0167
> 748
            580  |   .0052703   .0191873     0.27   0.784    -.0323361    .0428
> 767
            581  |  -.0828376   .0215594    -3.84   0.000    -.1250932   -.0405
> 819
            600  |  -.1252727   .0277853    -4.51   0.000    -.1797309   -.0708
> 144
            615  |  -.0481166   .0245835    -1.96   0.050    -.0962994    .0000
> 662
            616  |  -.1639103   .0318272    -5.15   0.000    -.2262906   -.1015
> 301
            620  |  -.0497064   .0202115    -2.46   0.014    -.0893203   -.0100
> 925
            625  |  -.0379037   .0167963    -2.26   0.024    -.0708239   -.0049
> 835
            630  |  -.0563867   .0225653    -2.50   0.012    -.1006138   -.0121
> 596
            640  |  -.0333686   .0186781    -1.79   0.074     -.069977    .0032
> 399
            645  |  -.0417833   .0226919    -1.84   0.066    -.0862585     .002
> 692
            651  |  -.1484419   .0270583    -5.49   0.000    -.2014752   -.0954
> 087
            652  |  -.0416885   .0178257    -2.34   0.019    -.0766263   -.0067
> 507
            660  |  -.0767757   .0231535    -3.32   0.001    -.1221558   -.0313
> 957
            663  |  -.0727549   .0222997    -3.26   0.001    -.1164615   -.0290
> 482
            670  |  -.0187791   .0191718    -0.98   0.327    -.0563552    .0187
> 969
            679  |  -.0306835   .0268452    -1.14   0.253    -.0832991     .021
> 932
            690  |  -.0775182   .0273306    -2.84   0.005    -.1310853   -.0239
> 512
            694  |  -.0276626   .0228335    -1.21   0.226    -.0724154    .0170
> 902
            698  |  -.0771941   .0251644    -3.07   0.002    -.1265154   -.0278
> 727
            700  |  -.0562496   .0205196    -2.74   0.006    -.0964672    -.016
> 032
            701  |  -.0192795   .0198202    -0.97   0.331    -.0581265    .0195
> 675
            702  |  -.0292999   .0181404    -1.62   0.106    -.0648544    .0062
> 546
            703  |  -.0801044   .0217315    -3.69   0.000    -.1226974   -.0375
> 114
            704  |  -.0493834    .019437    -2.54   0.011    -.0874792   -.0112
> 877
            705  |   -.126886    .027372    -4.64   0.000    -.1805341   -.0732
> 379
            710  |  -.0440654   .0208263    -2.12   0.034    -.0848843   -.0032
> 466
            712  |  -.0043007   .0340804    -0.13   0.900     -.071097    .0624
> 957
            760  |  -.1933592   .0401886    -4.81   0.000    -.2721274    -.114
> 591
            770  |  -.0778847   .0175044    -4.45   0.000    -.1121926   -.0435
> 767
            771  |  -.0754267   .0196129    -3.85   0.000    -.1138674   -.0369
> 861
            775  |  -.0300084   .0153514    -1.95   0.051    -.0600965    .0000
> 798
            780  |  -.0734633   .0250044    -2.94   0.003    -.1224711   -.0244
> 556
            790  |  -.0352051   .0186598    -1.89   0.059    -.0717776    .0013
> 674
            800  |  -.0855761    .025905    -3.30   0.001    -.1363489   -.0348
> 032
            811  |  -.0593408   .0206232    -2.88   0.004    -.0997615     -.01
> 892
            812  |  -.0634808   .0178035    -3.57   0.000    -.0983751   -.0285
> 865
            816  |   .0052967   .0174081     0.30   0.761    -.0288226    .0394
> 159
            820  |  -.0304584   .0213608    -1.43   0.154    -.0723247     .011
> 408
            840  |   -.023328   .0155533    -1.50   0.134    -.0538119     .007
> 156
            850  |  -.0923642   .0212547    -4.35   0.000    -.1340227   -.0507
> 057
                 |
           _cons |   .1043317   .0332198     3.14   0.002     .0392221    .1694
> 413
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             65.547
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               60.796
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         62.811
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.v2x_clphy imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol actotal debt_crisis ungaidealpoint2
                      1975.year 1976.year 1977.year 1978.year 1979.year
                      1980.year 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year 1984.year
                      1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year 1989.year
                      1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year 1994.year
                      1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year 1999.year
                      2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year 2004.year
                      2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year 2009.year
                      2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year 2014.year 70.ccod
> e
                      90.ccode 91.ccode 92.ccode 93.ccode 95.ccode 130.ccode
                      135.ccode 140.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccode 155.ccode
                      160.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode 310.ccode 339.ccode
                      346.ccode 355.ccode 360.ccode 365.ccode 370.ccode
                      372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode 404.ccode 411.ccode
                      420.ccode 432.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode 435.ccode
                      436.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode 439.ccode 450.ccode
                      451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode 471.ccode 475.ccode
                      481.ccode 482.ccode 483.ccode 484.ccode 490.ccode
                      500.ccode 501.ccode 510.ccode 516.ccode 517.ccode
                      522.ccode 530.ccode 540.ccode 541.ccode 551.ccode
                      552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode 565.ccode 570.ccode
                      571.ccode 572.ccode 580.ccode 581.ccode 600.ccode
                      615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode 625.ccode 630.ccode
                      640.ccode 645.ccode 651.ccode 652.ccode 660.ccode
                      663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode 690.ccode 694.ccode
                      698.ccode 700.ccode 701.ccode 702.ccode 703.ccode
                      704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode 712.ccode 760.ccode
                      770.ccode 771.ccode 775.ccode 780.ccode 790.ccode
                      800.ccode 811.ccode 812.ccode 816.ccode 820.ccode
                      840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.   
. *** Table A13 (placebo-style test, 2SLS results for autocratic sample with no
> n-state violence as outcome variable) ***
. ivreg2 v2caviol  l.v2caviol imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liquidi
> ty_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol v2cagenmob i.year i.ccode, ro
> bust
Warning: time variable year has 15 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     2100
                                                      F(129,  1970) =  1402.06
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  3522.602179                Centered R2   =   0.9342
Total (uncentered) SS   =   3522.64824                Uncentered R2 =   0.9342
Residual SS             =  231.9066728                Root MSE      =    .3323

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
        v2caviol |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |   .2316223   .1985867     1.17   0.243    -.1576004     .620
> 845
                 |
        v2caviol |
             L1. |   .8014747   .0216296    37.05   0.000     .7590814     .843
> 868
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |  -.2523792    .262623    -0.96   0.337    -.7671109    .2623
> 524
     e_migdppcln |  -.0304431   .0229723    -1.33   0.185    -.0754679    .0145
> 818
     v2xcl_acjst |  -.6400609   .1708386    -3.75   0.000    -.9748984   -.3052
> 235
v2exl_legitideol |  -.0088911   .0159761    -0.56   0.578    -.0402036    .0224
> 214
      v2cagenmob |   .0759971   .0146861     5.17   0.000      .047213    .1047
> 813
                 |
            year |
           1975  |  -.0053955   .0634707    -0.09   0.932    -.1297958    .1190
> 047
           1976  |   .0156294   .0578785     0.27   0.787    -.0978104    .1290
> 691
           1977  |  -.0292383   .0555725    -0.53   0.599    -.1381585    .0796
> 818
           1978  |   .0001619   .0559003     0.00   0.998    -.1094006    .1097
> 245
           1979  |   .0100141   .0585098     0.17   0.864     -.104663    .1246
> 913
           1980  |  -.0851429    .080509    -1.06   0.290    -.2429377    .0726
> 519
           1981  |  -.0762133   .0691409    -1.10   0.270    -.2117269    .0593
> 004
           1982  |  -.0188758   .0532211    -0.35   0.723    -.1231873    .0854
> 358
           1983  |  -.0624143   .0553586    -1.13   0.260    -.1709152    .0460
> 865
           1984  |   .0066218   .0526371     0.13   0.900     -.096545    .1097
> 887
           1985  |  -.0562994   .0460707    -1.22   0.222    -.1465964    .0339
> 975
           1986  |  -.0272189   .0534427    -0.51   0.611    -.1319647    .0775
> 268
           1987  |   -.049074   .0472371    -1.04   0.299     -.141657    .0435
> 089
           1988  |   .0023542   .0743584     0.03   0.975    -.1433857     .148
> 094
           1989  |   -.038261   .0601853    -0.64   0.525    -.1562221    .0797
> 001
           1990  |   .0213638   .1016608     0.21   0.834    -.1778877    .2206
> 153
           1991  |   -.027943   .0735341    -0.38   0.704    -.1720671    .1161
> 811
           1992  |    .023606   .0715778     0.33   0.742    -.1166839    .1638
> 958
           1993  |   .0082847   .0688001     0.12   0.904     -.126561    .1431
> 304
           1994  |   .0340419   .0574819     0.59   0.554    -.0786206    .1467
> 044
           1995  |  -.1066887   .0708858    -1.51   0.132    -.2456224     .032
> 245
           1996  |  -.0440292   .0565295    -0.78   0.436     -.154825    .0667
> 666
           1997  |  -.0202354   .0500727    -0.40   0.686    -.1183761    .0779
> 052
           1998  |  -.0030542   .0470341    -0.06   0.948    -.0952394     .089
> 131
           1999  |   .0628177   .0528372     1.19   0.234    -.0407414    .1663
> 768
           2000  |  -.0292827    .072873    -0.40   0.688     -.172111    .1135
> 457
           2001  |  -.0376901   .0494694    -0.76   0.446    -.1346484    .0592
> 682
           2002  |   .0100627   .0507231     0.20   0.843    -.0893528    .1094
> 783
           2003  |  -.0082256   .0623941    -0.13   0.895    -.1305158    .1140
> 646
           2004  |   .0183742   .0598361     0.31   0.759    -.0989024    .1356
> 508
           2005  |   .0564126   .0712829     0.79   0.429    -.0832994    .1961
> 246
           2006  |  -.0517032   .0876193    -0.59   0.555    -.2234339    .1200
> 276
           2007  |    .006984   .0718602     0.10   0.923    -.1338594    .1478
> 274
           2008  |   .0631841   .0668477     0.95   0.345    -.0678351    .1942
> 033
           2009  |  -.0352237   .0551794    -0.64   0.523    -.1433733     .072
> 926
           2010  |   .0614182    .081862     0.75   0.453    -.0990283    .2218
> 647
           2011  |   .2118911    .141126     1.50   0.133    -.0647107     .488
> 493
           2012  |  -.0292548   .0735638    -0.40   0.691    -.1734371    .1149
> 276
           2013  |   .0979197   .0800012     1.22   0.221    -.0588798    .2547
> 192
           2014  |   .0869621   .0987161     0.88   0.378    -.1065179     .280
> 442
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |   -.375033   .1232534    -3.04   0.002    -.6166053   -.1334
> 607
             90  |   .2618891   .0742394     3.53   0.000     .1163825    .4073
> 957
             95  |  -.3053989    .079208    -3.86   0.000    -.4606437   -.1501
> 541
            130  |   -.454661   .1342132    -3.39   0.001     -.717714   -.1916
> 079
            135  |  -.3976826   .1775393    -2.24   0.025    -.7456533    -.049
> 712
            145  |   -.272966   .1197505    -2.28   0.023    -.5076726   -.0382
> 594
            150  |  -.1640561   .1049253    -1.56   0.118    -.3697059    .0415
> 936
            155  |  -.0136179   .1374732    -0.10   0.921    -.2830603    .2558
> 246
            165  |  -.3769791   .1781257    -2.12   0.034     -.726099   -.0278
> 592
            290  |  -.4978729   .1185388    -4.20   0.000    -.7302047    -.265
> 541
            310  |  -.4908021   .1505638    -3.26   0.001    -.7859018   -.1957
> 024
            339  |  -.5632163     .13689    -4.11   0.000    -.8315157   -.2949
> 169
            346  |  -.0572299   .1754318    -0.33   0.744    -.4010699    .2866
> 102
            355  |  -.3865381   .1757831    -2.20   0.028    -.7310667   -.0420
> 094
            360  |  -.4979265   .1111371    -4.48   0.000    -.7157511   -.2801
> 019
            365  |  -.1872409   .0981639    -1.91   0.056    -.3796386    .0051
> 568
            370  |  -.4884223   .1634066    -2.99   0.003    -.8086933   -.1681
> 512
            372  |  -.3344926   .1326442    -2.52   0.012    -.5944705   -.0745
> 148
            373  |  -.4151678   .1313555    -3.16   0.002    -.6726199   -.1577
> 157
            402  |  -.0201569   .1065967    -0.19   0.850    -.2290825    .1887
> 688
            403  |  -.3710791   .1170166    -3.17   0.002    -.6004274   -.1417
> 308
            411  |  -.2112552   .1043692    -2.02   0.043    -.4158151   -.0066
> 953
            420  |  -.1170776   .1048147    -1.12   0.264    -.3225107    .0883
> 555
            433  |   .0140903   .1498488     0.09   0.925     -.279608    .3077
> 887
            434  |  -.4504207   .1352394    -3.33   0.001     -.715485   -.1853
> 564
            437  |  -.2912137   .1171054    -2.49   0.013    -.5207361   -.0616
> 912
            438  |  -.4202339   .1445773    -2.91   0.004    -.7036002   -.1368
> 677
            439  |   -.048485   .1302213    -0.37   0.710     -.303714    .2067
> 441
            450  |   .1694492   .1073213     1.58   0.114    -.0408966     .379
> 795
            451  |    -.13944   .1159259    -1.20   0.229    -.3666507    .0877
> 706
            452  |  -.3697018   .1446463    -2.56   0.011    -.6532034   -.0862
> 003
            461  |  -.2235836   .0954841    -2.34   0.019    -.4107289   -.0364
> 382
            471  |  -.0957568   .1175161    -0.81   0.415    -.3260841    .1345
> 705
            475  |  -.0599129   .1152061    -0.52   0.603    -.2857127    .1658
> 869
            482  |  -.1791345   .1249449    -1.43   0.152    -.4240219     .065
> 753
            490  |  -.2096972   .0949191    -2.21   0.027    -.3957352   -.0236
> 592
            500  |   .3075262   .1074271     2.86   0.004     .0969729    .5180
> 795
            510  |  -.3332773    .107856    -3.09   0.002    -.5446711   -.1218
> 834
            517  |  -.1231869   .1365726    -0.90   0.367    -.3908643    .1444
> 906
            522  |  -.1405883   .1228017    -1.14   0.252    -.3812753    .1000
> 987
            530  |   .0849879   .1196359     0.71   0.477    -.1494943      .31
> 947
            541  |  -.0539511   .1315648    -0.41   0.682    -.3118133    .2039
> 111
            551  |  -.2320331   .1025849    -2.26   0.024    -.4330958   -.0309
> 704
            552  |   .0802533   .0874043     0.92   0.359    -.0910559    .2515
> 626
            553  |  -.3350681   .1371459    -2.44   0.015    -.6038691   -.0662
> 671
            560  |  -.0112669   .1083394    -0.10   0.917    -.2236082    .2010
> 745
            565  |  -.2803221   .1620002    -1.73   0.084    -.5978367    .0371
> 926
            570  |  -.1444343   .1093074    -1.32   0.186    -.3586728    .0698
> 043
            571  |  -.3210122   .1247082    -2.57   0.010    -.5654357   -.0765
> 887
            572  |  -.2567758   .1248576    -2.06   0.040    -.5014922   -.0120
> 593
            581  |   .0863153   .1051947     0.82   0.412    -.1198626    .2924
> 932
            600  |  -.1066993    .119816    -0.89   0.373    -.3415344    .1281
> 358
            615  |   .0266995   .1459984     0.18   0.855    -.2594521     .312
> 851
            616  |  -.0153276    .123821    -0.12   0.901    -.2580122    .2273
> 571
            620  |  -.2395761   .1450874    -1.65   0.099    -.5239421    .0447
> 899
            625  |  -.2180412    .083802    -2.60   0.009    -.3822901   -.0537
> 923
            630  |  -.2714019   .1289194    -2.11   0.035    -.5240794   -.0187
> 244
            640  |  -1.607933   .7887162    -2.04   0.041    -3.153789   -.0620
> 779
            651  |  -.2218852   .0969688    -2.29   0.022    -.4119405   -.0318
> 299
            652  |  -.0049794   .1224061    -0.04   0.968    -.2448909    .2349
> 321
            660  |   .1836804   .1162701     1.58   0.114    -.0442047    .4115
> 655
            663  |  -.3132923   .1339574    -2.34   0.019     -.575844   -.0507
> 405
            670  |  -.0934972   .1655973    -0.56   0.572    -.4180619    .2310
> 674
            679  |  -.1321063   .1635036    -0.81   0.419    -.4525674    .1883
> 549
            690  |  -.1250764   .1677544    -0.75   0.456     -.453869    .2037
> 162
            701  |  -.7920904   .1743006    -4.54   0.000    -1.133713   -.4504
> 676
            703  |   -.444633   .1130849    -3.93   0.000    -.6662753   -.2229
> 907
            704  |  -.3422069   .1466781    -2.33   0.020    -.6296907   -.0547
> 231
            705  |   .0199358   .1050468     0.19   0.849    -.1859521    .2258
> 236
            710  |  -.5093998   .1314695    -3.87   0.000    -.7670752   -.2517
> 243
            712  |  -.0961241   .1127973    -0.85   0.394    -.3172027    .1249
> 545
            732  |  -.0290342   .1343537    -0.22   0.829    -.2923627    .2342
> 942
            760  |  -.0917035   .1704793    -0.54   0.591    -.4258367    .2424
> 298
            770  |  -.1080886   .0863495    -1.25   0.211    -.2773306    .0611
> 534
            771  |   .0906058   .1268932     0.71   0.475    -.1581003     .339
> 312
            780  |    .006686   .1201819     0.06   0.956    -.2288661    .2422
> 382
            800  |   .0704419   .1525933     0.46   0.644    -.2286355    .3695
> 192
            812  |  -.2755611   .1279058    -2.15   0.031    -.5262519   -.0248
> 703
            816  |  -.6701994   .1424022    -4.71   0.000    -.9493027   -.3910
> 962
            820  |  -.0762781   .1364961    -0.56   0.576    -.3438056    .1912
> 494
            840  |  -.2307576    .078973    -2.92   0.003    -.3855419   -.0759
> 732
            850  |  -.3029673   .1875529    -1.62   0.106    -.6705643    .0646
> 296
                 |
           _cons |   .7191525   .2304069     3.12   0.002     .2675634    1.170
> 742
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             43.733
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               37.778
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         39.282
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.v2caviol imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol v2cagenmob 1975.year 1976.year 1977.year
                      1978.year 1979.year 1980.year 1981.year 1982.year
                      1983.year 1984.year 1985.year 1986.year 1987.year
                      1988.year 1989.year 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year
                      1993.year 1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year
                      1998.year 1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year
                      2003.year 2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year
                      2008.year 2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year
                      2013.year 2014.year 70.ccode 90.ccode 95.ccode 130.ccode
                      135.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccode 155.ccode 165.ccode
                      290.ccode 310.ccode 339.ccode 346.ccode 355.ccode
                      360.ccode 365.ccode 370.ccode 372.ccode 373.ccode
                      402.ccode 403.ccode 411.ccode 420.ccode 433.ccode
                      434.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode 439.ccode 450.ccode
                      451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode 471.ccode 475.ccode
                      482.ccode 490.ccode 500.ccode 510.ccode 517.ccode
                      522.ccode 530.ccode 541.ccode 551.ccode 552.ccode
                      553.ccode 560.ccode 565.ccode 570.ccode 571.ccode
                      572.ccode 581.ccode 600.ccode 615.ccode 616.ccode
                      620.ccode 625.ccode 630.ccode 640.ccode 651.ccode
                      652.ccode 660.ccode 663.ccode 670.ccode 679.ccode
                      690.ccode 701.ccode 703.ccode 704.ccode 705.ccode
                      710.ccode 712.ccode 732.ccode 760.ccode 770.ccode
                      771.ccode 780.ccode 800.ccode 812.ccode 816.ccode
                      820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ivreg2 v2caviol  l.v2caviol imf_movingavg1 (imfprogram_uu= imf_maxlog_liquidi
> ty_1)  e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol v2cagenmob debt_crisis ungaid
> ealpoint2 i.year i.ccode, robust
Warning: time variable year has 23 gap(s) in relevant range

IV (2SLS) estimation
--------------------

Estimates efficient for homoskedasticity only
Statistics robust to heteroskedasticity

                                                      Number of obs =     1970
                                                      F(130,  1839) =  5062.72
                                                      Prob > F      =   0.0000
Total (centered) SS     =  3232.421479                Centered R2   =   0.9344
Total (uncentered) SS   =  3234.216205                Uncentered R2 =   0.9345
Residual SS             =  211.9409382                Root MSE      =     .328

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
                 |               Robust
        v2caviol |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interv
> al]
-----------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
---
   imfprogram_uu |   .2157538   .2006526     1.08   0.282     -.177518    .6090
> 256
                 |
        v2caviol |
             L1. |   .7927988    .022472    35.28   0.000     .7487546     .836
> 843
                 |
  imf_movingavg1 |  -.2531078   .2639211    -0.96   0.338    -.7703837    .2641
> 681
     e_migdppcln |  -.0204014     .02434    -0.84   0.402     -.068107    .0273
> 042
     v2xcl_acjst |  -.6070306   .1900112    -3.19   0.001    -.9794456   -.2346
> 156
v2exl_legitideol |     .00259    .014804     0.17   0.861    -.0264254    .0316
> 053
      v2cagenmob |   .0867316   .0151048     5.74   0.000     .0571267    .1163
> 364
     debt_crisis |  -.0691885   .0601048    -1.15   0.250    -.1869918    .0486
> 148
 ungaidealpoint2 |   .0021985   .0261038     0.08   0.933    -.0489641    .0533
> 611
                 |
            year |
           1975  |   -.007027   .0653561    -0.11   0.914    -.1351226    .1210
> 686
           1976  |   .0189775   .0590837     0.32   0.748    -.0968245    .1347
> 794
           1977  |  -.0243503   .0556624    -0.44   0.662    -.1334467     .084
> 746
           1978  |  -.0129072   .0562491    -0.23   0.819    -.1231534    .0973
> 389
           1979  |   .0120281    .061826     0.19   0.846    -.1091485    .1332
> 048
           1980  |  -.0737439   .0808312    -0.91   0.362    -.2321701    .0846
> 823
           1981  |  -.0741847   .0711911    -1.04   0.297    -.2137167    .0653
> 474
           1982  |  -.0090694   .0528702    -0.17   0.864     -.112693    .0945
> 543
           1983  |  -.0488968   .0532305    -0.92   0.358    -.1532266    .0554
> 331
           1984  |   .0136709    .055445     0.25   0.805    -.0949993    .1223
> 411
           1985  |  -.0590784   .0480021    -1.23   0.218    -.1531607    .0350
> 039
           1986  |   -.029212   .0562538    -0.52   0.604    -.1394674    .0810
> 433
           1987  |  -.0476619   .0513293    -0.93   0.353    -.1482654    .0529
> 416
           1988  |   .0033087   .0769636     0.04   0.966    -.1475372    .1541
> 546
           1989  |  -.0357739   .0661795    -0.54   0.589    -.1654834    .0939
> 356
           1990  |   .0239757   .1055798     0.23   0.820    -.1829568    .2309
> 082
           1991  |  -.0254077   .0788585    -0.32   0.747    -.1799675    .1291
> 521
           1992  |   .0341215   .0794426     0.43   0.668    -.1215831     .189
> 826
           1993  |   .0135299    .070373     0.19   0.848    -.1243987    .1514
> 585
           1994  |   .0384227   .0631031     0.61   0.543    -.0852572    .1621
> 025
           1995  |  -.0980385   .0771252    -1.27   0.204    -.2492012    .0531
> 241
           1996  |  -.0369923   .0634244    -0.58   0.560    -.1613017    .0873
> 172
           1997  |  -.0098531   .0583734    -0.17   0.866     -.124263    .1045
> 567
           1998  |  -.0043106   .0523867    -0.08   0.934    -.1069866    .0983
> 655
           1999  |   .0643795   .0593638     1.08   0.278    -.0519714    .1807
> 305
           2000  |  -.0332273    .076546    -0.43   0.664    -.1832547    .1168
> 002
           2001  |  -.0343478   .0558904    -0.61   0.539     -.143891    .0751
> 954
           2002  |   .0101825   .0582718     0.17   0.861    -.1040282    .1243
> 933
           2003  |  -.0092874   .0682611    -0.14   0.892    -.1430767    .1245
> 019
           2004  |   .0201929   .0636162     0.32   0.751    -.1044926    .1448
> 783
           2005  |   .0541412   .0706767     0.77   0.444    -.0843826    .1926
> 649
           2006  |  -.0556666   .0862589    -0.65   0.519     -.224731    .1133
> 977
           2007  |  -.0009471   .0717011    -0.01   0.989    -.1414787    .1395
> 845
           2008  |   .0571345   .0681325     0.84   0.402    -.0764029    .1906
> 718
           2009  |  -.0402118   .0595308    -0.68   0.499      -.15689    .0764
> 664
           2010  |   .0491414   .0850984     0.58   0.564    -.1176484    .2159
> 312
           2011  |   .1898059   .1432858     1.32   0.185    -.0910291     .470
> 641
           2012  |   -.044804   .0717675    -0.62   0.532    -.1854657    .0958
> 577
           2013  |   .1283944   .0747744     1.72   0.086    -.0181608    .2749
> 495
           2014  |  -.1938776   .1686518    -1.15   0.250    -.5244291    .1366
> 739
                 |
           ccode |
             70  |  -.4368705   .1314873    -3.32   0.001    -.6945809   -.1791
> 601
             90  |   .2294133   .0798742     2.87   0.004     .0728629    .3859
> 638
             95  |  -.3419781   .0814642    -4.20   0.000    -.5016451   -.1823
> 111
            130  |  -.4980541   .1379517    -3.61   0.000    -.7684344   -.2276
> 738
            135  |  -.4212224   .1786535    -2.36   0.018    -.7713767    -.071
> 068
            145  |  -.3253294   .1225987    -2.65   0.008    -.5656183   -.0850
> 404
            150  |  -.2014567   .1094242    -1.84   0.066    -.4159243    .0130
> 108
            155  |  -.0386208   .1382058    -0.28   0.780    -.3094992    .2322
> 577
            165  |  -.4082865   .1762487    -2.32   0.021    -.7537276   -.0628
> 453
            290  |   -.580797   .1323097    -4.39   0.000    -.8401192   -.3214
> 749
            310  |  -.5969149   .1693869    -3.52   0.000    -.9289072   -.2649
> 227
            339  |  -.6333551   .1467003    -4.32   0.000    -.9208825   -.3458
> 278
            346  |  -.0806746   .2055805    -0.39   0.695     -.483605    .3222
> 558
            355  |   -.401214   .2126901    -1.89   0.059    -.8180789    .0156
> 509
            360  |  -.5754829   .1073461    -5.36   0.000    -.7858773   -.3650
> 885
            365  |   -.253853   .1053608    -2.41   0.016    -.4603565   -.0473
> 496
            370  |  -.6033018   .1711793    -3.52   0.000     -.938807   -.2677
> 966
            372  |  -.3925822   .1348868    -2.91   0.004    -.6569556   -.1282
> 089
            373  |   -.465053   .1341078    -3.47   0.001    -.7278996   -.2022
> 065
            402  |  -.0745576   .1209929    -0.62   0.538    -.3116994    .1625
> 842
            403  |  -.4281398   .1237789    -3.46   0.001    -.6707419   -.1855
> 376
            411  |  -.2654923   .1099617    -2.41   0.016    -.4810133   -.0499
> 713
            420  |  -.1440977   .1162303    -1.24   0.215    -.3719049    .0837
> 095
            433  |  -.0444248   .1574491    -0.28   0.778    -.3530194    .2641
> 697
            434  |  -.5230937   .1439951    -3.63   0.000    -.8053188   -.2408
> 685
            437  |  -.3252224   .1204419    -2.70   0.007    -.5612841   -.0891
> 606
            438  |  -.4452769    .155204    -2.87   0.004    -.7494712   -.1410
> 826
            439  |  -.0789228   .1417236    -0.56   0.578    -.3566959    .1988
> 504
            450  |   .0827126   .1133651     0.73   0.466    -.1394789    .3049
> 042
            451  |  -.1592485   .1236242    -1.29   0.198    -.4015474    .0830
> 505
            452  |  -.4029524   .1565891    -2.57   0.010    -.7098614   -.0960
> 434
            461  |   -.235319   .1049124    -2.24   0.025    -.4409435   -.0296
> 945
            471  |   -.140868   .1284123    -1.10   0.273    -.3925514    .1108
> 154
            475  |  -.1037644   .1274365    -0.81   0.416    -.3535353    .1460
> 066
            482  |  -.2190895   .1347712    -1.63   0.104    -.4832362    .0450
> 572
            490  |   -.239628   .1082715    -2.21   0.027    -.4518363   -.0274
> 197
            500  |   .2760965   .1175184     2.35   0.019     .0457647    .5064
> 282
            510  |  -.3107605   .1100698    -2.82   0.005    -.5264933   -.0950
> 277
            517  |   -.180328   .1485422    -1.21   0.225    -.4714653    .1108
> 092
            522  |  -.1850222   .1319609    -1.40   0.161    -.4436609    .0736
> 165
            530  |   .0595262   .1323296     0.45   0.653    -.1998351    .3188
> 874
            541  |  -.1343162   .1304013    -1.03   0.303     -.389898    .1212
> 656
            551  |  -.3278462   .1071868    -3.06   0.002    -.5379285   -.1177
> 639
            552  |    .023163   .0870246     0.27   0.790     -.147402     .193
> 728
            553  |  -.3605111   .1397927    -2.58   0.010    -.6344998   -.0865
> 224
            560  |  -.1226653   .1473624    -0.83   0.405    -.4114903    .1661
> 597
            565  |  -.3614771   .1782588    -2.03   0.043    -.7108579   -.0120
> 962
            570  |  -.1918316   .1200709    -1.60   0.110    -.4271663     .043
> 503
            571  |  -.3907889   .1447265    -2.70   0.007    -.6744476   -.1071
> 301
            572  |  -.3452652   .1280143    -2.70   0.007    -.5961686   -.0943
> 618
            581  |   .0500823   .1132402     0.44   0.658    -.1718644     .272
> 029
            600  |  -.1789957   .1366071    -1.31   0.190    -.4467406    .0887
> 492
            615  |  -.0704721   .1513196    -0.47   0.641    -.3670531    .2261
> 089
            616  |  -.0243418   .1384972    -0.18   0.860    -.2957914    .2471
> 078
            620  |   -.392076   .1449524    -2.70   0.007    -.6761775   -.1079
> 746
            625  |  -.2482415   .0875364    -2.84   0.005    -.4198096   -.0766
> 734
            630  |  -.3652603   .1370002    -2.67   0.008    -.6337758   -.0967
> 449
            640  |  -1.653347   .7782277    -2.12   0.034    -3.178645   -.1280
> 489
            651  |  -.2623712   .1123628    -2.34   0.020    -.4825982   -.0421
> 441
            652  |  -.0595175   .1377746    -0.43   0.666    -.3295507    .2105
> 157
            660  |   .1459543   .1250626     1.17   0.243    -.0991639    .3910
> 725
            663  |   -.348949   .1438467    -2.43   0.015    -.6308833   -.0670
> 147
            670  |  -.1872653   .1715935    -1.09   0.275    -.5235824    .1490
> 517
            679  |   -.235459   .1544702    -1.52   0.127    -.5382151     .067
> 297
            690  |  -.2461503   .1829306    -1.35   0.178    -.6046877    .1123
> 871
            701  |  -.8710812    .179792    -4.84   0.000    -1.223467   -.5186
> 953
            703  |  -.4852564   .1209318    -4.01   0.000    -.7222783   -.2482
> 344
            704  |    -.35201   .1589248    -2.21   0.027    -.6634968   -.0405
> 231
            705  |  -.0474445   .1181272    -0.40   0.688    -.2789695    .1840
> 806
            710  |  -.6068196   .1391489    -4.36   0.000    -.8795463   -.3340
> 928
            712  |  -.1530711   .1172625    -1.31   0.192    -.3829014    .0767
> 591
            760  |  -.1481385   .1818329    -0.81   0.415    -.5045245    .2082
> 474
            770  |  -.1500006   .0885568    -1.69   0.090    -.3235686    .0235
> 675
            771  |   .0628862   .1312504     0.48   0.632    -.1943599    .3201
> 322
            780  |  -.0486925   .1200639    -0.41   0.685    -.2840135    .1866
> 284
            800  |   .1422305   .1292033     1.10   0.271    -.1110033    .3954
> 642
            812  |  -.3121683   .1424745    -2.19   0.028    -.5914133   -.0329
> 234
            816  |  -.7585216   .1601464    -4.74   0.000    -1.072403   -.4446
> 403
            820  |  -.1665755   .1500653    -1.11   0.267    -.4606981    .1275
> 472
            840  |  -.3006594   .0774013    -3.88   0.000    -.4523632   -.1489
> 556
            850  |   -.363507   .2128133    -1.71   0.088    -.7806135    .0535
> 995
                 |
           _cons |   .6851443    .248029     2.76   0.006     .1990164    1.171
> 272
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Underidentification test (Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic):             41.926
                                                   Chi-sq(1) P-val =    0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak identification test (Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic):               37.546
                         (Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F statistic):         37.990
Stock-Yogo weak ID test critical values: 10% maximal IV size             16.38
                                         15% maximal IV size              8.96
                                         20% maximal IV size              6.66
                                         25% maximal IV size              5.53
Source: Stock-Yogo (2005).  Reproduced by permission.
NB: Critical values are for Cragg-Donald F statistic and i.i.d. errors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: estimated covariance matrix of moment conditions not of full rank.
         overidentification statistic not reported, and standard errors and
         model tests should be interpreted with caution.
Possible causes:
         singleton dummy variable (dummy with one 1 and N-1 0s or vice versa)
partial option may address problem.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:         imfprogram_uu
Included instruments: L.v2caviol imf_movingavg1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst
                      v2exl_legitideol v2cagenmob debt_crisis ungaidealpoint2
                      1975.year 1976.year 1977.year 1978.year 1979.year
                      1980.year 1981.year 1982.year 1983.year 1984.year
                      1985.year 1986.year 1987.year 1988.year 1989.year
                      1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year 1994.year
                      1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year 1999.year
                      2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year 2004.year
                      2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year 2009.year
                      2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year 2014.year 70.ccod
> e
                      90.ccode 95.ccode 130.ccode 135.ccode 145.ccode 150.ccode
                      155.ccode 165.ccode 290.ccode 310.ccode 339.ccode
                      346.ccode 355.ccode 360.ccode 365.ccode 370.ccode
                      372.ccode 373.ccode 402.ccode 403.ccode 411.ccode
                      420.ccode 433.ccode 434.ccode 437.ccode 438.ccode
                      439.ccode 450.ccode 451.ccode 452.ccode 461.ccode
                      471.ccode 475.ccode 482.ccode 490.ccode 500.ccode
                      510.ccode 517.ccode 522.ccode 530.ccode 541.ccode
                      551.ccode 552.ccode 553.ccode 560.ccode 565.ccode
                      570.ccode 571.ccode 572.ccode 581.ccode 600.ccode
                      615.ccode 616.ccode 620.ccode 625.ccode 630.ccode
                      640.ccode 651.ccode 652.ccode 660.ccode 663.ccode
                      670.ccode 679.ccode 690.ccode 701.ccode 703.ccode
                      704.ccode 705.ccode 710.ccode 712.ccode 760.ccode
                      770.ccode 771.ccode 780.ccode 800.ccode 812.ccode
                      816.ccode 820.ccode 840.ccode 850.ccode
Excluded instruments: imf_maxlog_liquidity_1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. clear 

. 
. *****************************************************************************
> ***************************************************
. ******** STATISTICAL ANALYSES OF PHYS. INTEGRITY RIGHTS-IMF PROGRAM CONDITION
> ALITY LINK (AUTOCRATIC REGIMES) *******************
. *****************************************************************************
> ***************************************************
. 
. cd "/Users/stephennelson/Desktop/Aug24ISQReplication"
/Users/stephennelson/Desktop/Aug24ISQReplication

. use "imf_conditions_ISQ.dta"

. 
. sort cid time

. xtset cid time
       panel variable:  cid (strongly balanced)
        time variable:  time, 1 to 11
                delta:  1 unit

. 
. ***** Table 2 (in main paper) *****
. * Predictors of IMF program participation (based on Reinsberg et al. 2019a) a
> nd main correlates of human rights scores *  
. global Z1  limf1 nunder s_unga3g7

. global Z2  $Z1 reserves_wdi debtser_gni cab_gdp dpi_exelec dpi_legelec

. global BMA1 e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol actotal

. 
. * Test for effect of dichotomous IMF program participation indicator (not rep
> orted in paper) *
. qui treatreg theta_mean imf1 l.theta_mean i.cid i.time, treat(imf1=$Z1 i.regi
> d i.time) twostep hazard(imr)

. est store a1

. drop imr

. qui treatreg theta_mean imf1 l.theta_mean i.cid i.time, treat(imf1=$Z2 i.regi
> d i.time) twostep hazard(imr)

. est store a2

. drop imr

. estout a1 a2, starlevels(* .1 ** .05 *** .01) cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt
> (3))) stats(N chi2, fmt(%7.0f %7.2f)) drop(*cid* *time* _cons) order(imf1)

--------------------------------------------
                       a1              a2   
                     b/se            b/se   
--------------------------------------------
theta_mean                                  
imf1               -0.080           0.049   
                  (0.083)         (0.111)   
imf1                0.000                   
                      (.)                   
imf1                                0.000   
                                      (.)   
L.theta_mean        0.617***        0.599***
                  (0.027)         (0.037)   
--------------------------------------------
imf1                                        
limf1               1.658***        1.196***
                  (0.142)         (0.194)   
nunder              1.563***        0.041   
                  (0.020)         (0.033)   
s_unga3g7          -1.551          -1.919   
                  (1.136)         (2.397)   
1.regid             0.000           0.000   
                      (.)             (.)   
2.regid             0.472           0.950** 
                  (0.299)         (0.470)   
3.regid            -0.270                   
                  (0.340)                   
4.regid             0.101           0.240   
                  (0.284)         (0.346)   
5.regid            -0.447          -3.967   
                  (0.427)       (219.500)   
6.regid             0.105           1.108*  
                  (0.351)         (0.660)   
7.regid             0.406*          0.380   
                  (0.216)         (0.255)   
reserves_wdi                       -0.082** 
                                  (0.040)   
debtser_gn~i                        0.017   
                                  (0.020)   
cab_gdp_wdi                        -0.010   
                                  (0.015)   
dpi_exelec~g                        0.703** 
                                  (0.341)   
dpi_legele~g                       -0.004   
                                  (0.256)   
--------------------------------------------
hazard                                      
lambda              0.049          -0.057   
                  (0.044)         (0.061)   
--------------------------------------------
N                     513             268   
chi2             22300.86         4966.39   
--------------------------------------------

. 
. * Distinguishing structural and stabilization conditions (col 1) *
. cmp setup 
$cmp_out      = 0
$cmp_missing  = .
$cmp_cont     = 1
$cmp_left     = 2
$cmp_right    = 3
$cmp_probit   = 4
$cmp_oprobit  = 5
$cmp_mprobit  = 6
$cmp_int      = 7
$cmp_trunc    = 8  (deprecated)
$cmp_roprobit = 9
$cmp_frac     = 10

. set matsize 800 

. qui xi:reg theta_mean i.cid i.time  

. qui treatreg theta_mean imf1 l.theta_mean i.cid i.time, treat(imf1=$Z1 i.regi
> d i.time) twostep hazard(imr)

. qui cmp (theta_mean=scb qcb imr l.theta_mean _Icid* _Itime*) (scb=ivscb _Icid
> * _Itime*) (qcb=ivqcb _Icid* _Itime*) if imf1==1, indicators($cmp_cont $cmp_c
> ont $cmp_cont) cl(cid)

. est store e1

. test ([scb]ivscb [qcb]ivqcb)

 ( 1)  [scb]ivscb = 0
 ( 2)  [qcb]ivqcb = 0

           chi2(  2) =   29.91
         Prob > chi2 =    0.0000

. drop imr 

. estout e1, starlevels(* .1  ** .05  *** .01) cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(
> 3))) stats(N1 chi2 ll, fmt(%7.0f %7.2f)) drop(*cid* *time* _cons)

----------------------------
                       e1   
                     b/se   
----------------------------
theta_mean                  
scb                -0.053** 
                  (0.025)   
qcb                 0.111   
                  (0.128)   
imr                -0.021   
                  (0.078)   
L.theta_mean        0.666***
                  (0.050)   
----------------------------
scb                         
ivscb               0.063***
                  (0.012)   
----------------------------
qcb                         
ivqcb               0.012   
                  (0.012)   
----------------------------
N1                    237   
chi2              1719.43   
ll               -4158.21   
----------------------------

. 
. * Different types of IMF program conditions, labor-related and privatization 
> (col 2 & 3) *
. qui treatreg theta_mean imf1 l.theta_mean $BMA1 i.cid i.time, treat(imf1=$Z1 
> i.regid i.time) twostep hazard(imr)

. qui cmp (theta_mean=ba2lab imr l.theta_mean $BMA1 _Icid* _Itime*) (ba2lab=ivb
> a2lab $BMA1 _Icid* _Itime*) if imf1==1, indicators($cmp_cont $cmp_cont) cl(ci
> d)

. est store f1

. test ([ba2lab]ivba2lab)

 ( 1)  [ba2lab]ivba2lab = 0

           chi2(  1) =  147.31
         Prob > chi2 =    0.0000

. drop imr

. qui treatreg theta_mean imf1 l.theta_mean $BMA1 i.cid i.time, treat(imf1=$Z1 
> i.regid i.time) twostep hazard(imr)

. qui cmp (theta_mean=ba2pri imr l.theta_mean $BMA1 _Icid* _Itime*) (ba2pri=ivb
> a2pri $BMA1 _Icid* _Itime*) if imf1==1, indicators($cmp_cont $cmp_cont) cl(ci
> d)

. est store f2

. test ([ba2pri]ivba2pri)

 ( 1)  [ba2pri]ivba2pri = 0

           chi2(  1) =  120.73
         Prob > chi2 =    0.0000

. drop imr

. estout f1 f2, starlevels(* .1  ** .05  *** .01) cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par f
> mt(3))) stats(N1 ll, fmt(%7.0f %7.2f)) drop(*cid* *time* _cons)

--------------------------------------------
                       f1              f2   
                     b/se            b/se   
--------------------------------------------
theta_mean                                  
ba2lab             -0.057                   
                  (0.052)                   
imr                -0.006          -0.015   
                  (0.068)         (0.070)   
L.theta_mean        0.551***        0.548***
                  (0.050)         (0.049)   
e_migdppcln         0.034           0.054   
                  (0.116)         (0.119)   
v2xcl_acjst         0.557           0.420   
                  (0.458)         (0.409)   
v2exl_legi~l        0.058           0.063   
                  (0.080)         (0.085)   
actotal            -0.135***       -0.136***
                  (0.023)         (0.022)   
ba2pri                             -0.260***
                                  (0.099)   
--------------------------------------------
ba2lab                                      
ivba2lab            0.123***                
                  (0.010)                   
e_migdppcln         0.222                   
                  (0.297)                   
v2xcl_acjst         1.397*                  
                  (0.765)                   
v2exl_legi~l        0.071                   
                  (0.066)                   
actotal             0.010                   
                  (0.024)                   
--------------------------------------------
ba2pri                                      
ivba2pri                            0.103***
                                  (0.009)   
e_migdppcln                         0.079   
                                  (0.148)   
v2xcl_acjst                         0.130   
                                  (0.294)   
v2exl_legi~l                        0.010   
                                  (0.050)   
actotal                             0.002   
                                  (0.023)   
--------------------------------------------
N1                    237             237   
ll                -305.64         -166.89   
--------------------------------------------

. qui tab cid if e(sample)

. di r(r)
61

. 
. *Tables A5 & A6 (summary statistics and pairwise correlations)*
. sum theta_mean scb qcb ba2lab ba2pri e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideol
>  actotal if e(sample)  

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
  theta_mean |        282   -.7156071    1.104681   -3.21085    1.96746
         scb |        282    3.236407    5.043431          0   33.33333
         qcb |        282    13.66548    9.945661          0   45.33333
      ba2lab |        282    .3664302    1.000834          0   11.33333
      ba2pri |        282    .2210402    .6119272          0   4.666667
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 e_migdppcln |        282    8.086986    1.194937      6.053     11.903
 v2xcl_acjst |        282    .4909078    .2232931       .059       .908
v2exl_legi~l |        282   -.1221643    1.081811     -2.273      2.913
     actotal |        282    1.027778    1.799048          0          9

. corr theta_mean scb qcb ba2lab ba2pri e_migdppcln v2xcl_acjst v2exl_legitideo
> l actotal if e(sample)
(obs=282)

             | theta_~n      scb      qcb   ba2lab   ba2pri e_migd~n v2xcl_~t v
> 2exl_~l
-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------
-------
  theta_mean |   1.0000
         scb |   0.1165   1.0000
         qcb |   0.0511   0.5414   1.0000
      ba2lab |   0.1453   0.5437   0.3677   1.0000
      ba2pri |   0.0792   0.6608   0.2960   0.3857   1.0000
 e_migdppcln |   0.4071   0.1269   0.1425   0.1993   0.0498   1.0000
 v2xcl_acjst |   0.5359   0.2317   0.0522   0.1493   0.1232   0.3266   1.0000
v2exl_legi~l |  -0.0110   0.1421   0.0555   0.0698   0.0530   0.3106   0.0979  
>  1.0000
     actotal |  -0.7054  -0.0481   0.0315  -0.0920  -0.0438  -0.1956  -0.3889  
>  0.1126

             |  actotal
-------------+---------
     actotal |   1.0000


. 
. clear

. 
end of do-file

